Widening engineering horizons: Addressing the complexity of sustainable development

The complex, fragmented and diverse aspects of a sustainable development perspective are translated into an eight-point framework that defines a problem boundary larger than that traditionally adopted by civil engineers. This leads to practical questions intended to inform engineers who ask 'am I being sustainable?' during project implementation. The value of the questions is tested against a case history of a wastewater treatment project. This demonstrates the relevance of the questions to successive project delivery phases of defining the problem, choosing a solution and implementing that solution through design, construction and operation. The case history highlights that answers to several of the additional questions raised by considering this wider problem space are currently buried within government and clients' policies, regulations and standard practice; these answers may not be accessible to the professional engineer.

Sequential decision making in general state space models

Many problems in control and signal processing can be formulated as sequential decision problems for general state space models. However, except for some simple models one cannot obtain analytical solutions and has to resort to approximation. In this thesis, we have investigated problems where Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods can be combined with a gradient based search to provide solutions to online optimisation problems. We summarise the main contributions of the thesis as follows. Chapter 4 focuses on solving the sensor scheduling problem when cast as a controlled Hidden Markov Model. We consider the case in which the state, observation and action spaces are continuous. This general case is important as it is the natural framework for many applications. In sensor scheduling, our aim is to minimise the variance of the estimation error of the hidden state with respect to the action sequence. We present a novel SMC method that uses a stochastic gradient algorithm to find optimal actions. This is in contrast to existing works in the literature that only solve approximations to the original problem. In Chapter 5 we presented how an SMC can be used to solve a risk sensitive control problem. We adopt the use of the Feynman-Kac representation of a controlled Markov chain flow and exploit the properties of the logarithmic Lyapunov exponent, which lead to a policy gradient solution for the parameterised problem. The resulting SMC algorithm follows a similar structure with the Recursive Maximum Likelihood(RML) algorithm for online parameter estimation. In Chapters 6, 7 and 8, dynamic Graphical models were combined with with state space models for the purpose of online decentralised inference. We have concentrated more on the distributed parameter estimation problem using two Maximum Likelihood techniques, namely Recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) and Expectation Maximization (EM). The resulting algorithms can be interpreted as an extension of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm to compute likelihood gradients. In order to design an SMC algorithm, in Chapter 8 uses a nonparametric approximations for Belief Propagation. The algorithms were successfully applied to solve the sensor localisation problem for sensor networks of small and medium size.

An overview of sequential Monte Carlo methods for parameter estimation in general state-space models

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in control and signal processing. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as Particle Filters, are numerical techniques based on Importance Sampling for solving the optimal state estimation problem. The task of calibrating the state-space model is an important problem frequently faced by practitioners and the observed data may be used to estimate the parameters of the model. The aim of this paper is to present a comprehensive overview of SMC methods that have been proposed for this task accompanied with a discussion of their advantages and limitations.

Impacts of concurrency, iteration, design review, and problem complexity on design project lead time and error generation

A case study of an aircraft engine manufacturer is used to analyze the effects of management levers on the lead time and design errors generated in an iteration-intensive concurrent engineering process. The levers considered are amount of design-space exploration iteration, degree of process concurrency, and timing of design reviews. Simulation is used to show how the ideal combination of these levers can vary with changes in design problem complexity, which can increase, for instance, when novel technology is incorporated in a design. Results confirm that it is important to consider multiple iteration-influencing factors and their interdependencies to understand concurrent processes, because the factors can interact with confounding effects. The article also demonstrates a new approach to derive a system dynamics model from a process task network. The new approach could be applied to analyze other concurrent engineering scenarios. © The Author(s) 2012.

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes

State-space inference and learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is an unsolved problem. We propose a new, general methodology for inference and learning in nonlinear state-space models that are described probabilistically by non-parametric GP models. We apply the expectation maximization algorithm to iterate between inference in the latent state-space and learning the parameters of the underlying GP dynamics model. Copyright 2010 by the authors.

The parameter space of graphene chemical vapor deposition on polycrystalline Cu

A systematic study of the parameter space of graphene chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on polycrystalline Cu foils is presented, aiming at a more fundamental process rationale in particular regarding the choice of carbon precursor and mitigation of Cu sublimation. CH 4 as precursor requires H 2 dilution and temperatures ≥1000 °C to keep the Cu surface reduced and yield a high-quality, complete monolayer graphene coverage. The H 2 atmosphere etches as-grown graphene; hence, maintaining a balanced CH 4/H 2 ratio is critical. Such balance is more easily achieved at low-pressure conditions, at which however Cu sublimation reaches deleterious levels. In contrast, C 6H 6 as precursor requires no reactive diluent and consistently gives similar graphene quality at 100-150 °C lower temperatures. The lower process temperature and more robust processing conditions allow the problem of Cu sublimation to be effectively addressed. Graphene formation is not inherently self-limited to a monolayer for any of the precursors. Rather, the higher the supplied carbon chemical potential, the higher the likelihood of film inhomogeneity and primary and secondary multilayer graphene nucleation. For the latter, domain boundaries of the inherently polycrystalline CVD graphene offer pathways for a continued carbon supply to the catalyst. Graphene formation is significantly affected by the Cu crystallography; i.e., the evolution of microstructure and texture of the catalyst template form an integral part of the CVD process. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

An approach to multi-fidelity optimization of aeroengine compression systems

The aerodynamic design of turbomachinery presents the design optimisation community with a number of exquisite challenges. Chief among these are the size of the design space and the extent of discontinuity therein. This discontinuity can serve to limit the full exploitation of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD): such codes require detailed geometric information often available only sometime after the basic configuration of the machine has been set by other means. The premise of this paper is that it should be possible to produce higher performing designs in less time by exploiting multi-fidelity techniques to effectively harness CFD earlier in the design process, specifically by facilitating its participation in configuration selection. The adopted strategy of local multi-fidelity correction, generated on demand, combined with a global search algorithm via an adaptive trust region is first tested on a modest, smooth external aerodynamic problem. Speed-up of an order of magnitude is demonstrated, comparable to established techniques applied to smooth problems. A number of enhancements aimed principally at effectively evaluating a wide range of configurations quickly is then applied to the basic strategy, and the emerging technique is tested on a generic aeroengine core compression system. A similar order of magnitude speed-up is achieved on this relatively large and highly discontinuous problem. A five-fold increase in the number of configurations assessed with CFD is observed. As the technique places constraints neither on the underlying physical modelling of the constituent analysis codes nor on first-order agreement between those codes, it has potential applicability to a range of multidisciplinary design challenges. © 2012 by Jerome Jarrett and Tiziano Ghisu.

Rao-Blackwellized particle smoothers for mixed linear/nonlinear state-space models

We consider the smoothing problem for a class of conditionally linear Gaussian state-space (CLGSS) models, referred to as mixed linear/nonlinear models. In contrast to the better studied hierarchical CLGSS models, these allow for an intricate cross dependence between the linear and the nonlinear parts of the state vector. We derive a Rao-Blackwellized particle smoother (RBPS) for this model class by exploiting its tractable substructure. The smoother is of the forward filtering/backward simulation type. A key feature of the proposed method is that, unlike existing RBPS for this model class, the linear part of the state vector is marginalized out in both the forward direction and in the backward direction. © 2013 IEEE.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Low-rank optimization with trace norm penalty

The paper addresses the problem of low-rank trace norm minimization. We propose an algorithm that alternates between fixed-rank optimization and rank-one updates. The fixed-rank optimization is characterized by an efficient factorization that makes the trace norm differentiable in the search space and the computation of duality gap numerically tractable. The search space is nonlinear but is equipped with a Riemannian structure that leads to efficient computations. We present a second-order trust-region algorithm with a guaranteed quadratic rate of convergence. Overall, the proposed optimization scheme converges superlinearly to the global solution while maintaining complexity that is linear in the number of rows and columns of the matrix. To compute a set of solutions efficiently for a grid of regularization parameters we propose a predictor-corrector approach that outperforms the naive warm-restart approach on the fixed-rank quotient manifold. The performance of the proposed algorithm is illustrated on problems of low-rank matrix completion and multivariate linear regression. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Fixed-rank matrix factorizations and Riemannian low-rank optimization

Motivated by the problem of learning a linear regression model whose parameter is a large fixed-rank non-symmetric matrix, we consider the optimization of a smooth cost function defined on the set of fixed-rank matrices. We adopt the geometric framework of optimization on Riemannian quotient manifolds. We study the underlying geometries of several well-known fixed-rank matrix factorizations and then exploit the Riemannian quotient geometry of the search space in the design of a class of gradient descent and trust-region algorithms. The proposed algorithms generalize our previous results on fixed-rank symmetric positive semidefinite matrices, apply to a broad range of applications, scale to high-dimensional problems, and confer a geometric basis to recent contributions on the learning of fixed-rank non-symmetric matrices. We make connections with existing algorithms in the context of low-rank matrix completion and discuss the usefulness of the proposed framework. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed algorithms compete with state-of-the-art algorithms and that manifold optimization offers an effective and versatile framework for the design of machine learning algorithms that learn a fixed-rank matrix. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.