Visualising a stochastic model of California Water Resources Using Sankey Diagrams

This paper describes a novel approach to the analysis of supply and demand of water in California. A stochastic model is developed to assess the future supply of and demand for water resources in California. The results are presented in the form of a Sankey diagram where present and stochastically-varying future fluxes of water in California and its sub-regions are traced from source to services by mapping the various transformations of water from when it is first made available for use, through its treatment, recycling and reuse, to its eventual loss in a variety of sinks. This helps to highlight the connections of water with energy and land resources, including the amount of energy used to pump and treat water, the amount of water used for energy production, and the land resources that create a water demand to produce crops for food. By mapping water in this way, policy-makers can more easily understand the competing uses of water, through the identification of the services it delivers (e.g. sanitation, food production, landscaping), the potential opportunities for improving themanagement of the resource and the connections with other resources which are often overlooked in a traditional sector-based management strategy. This paper focuses on a Sankey diagram for water, but the ultimate aim is the visualisation of linked resource futures through inter-connected Sankey diagrams for energy, land and water, tracking changes from the basic resources for all three, their transformations, and the final services they provide.

The industrial emergence of commercial inkjet printing

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate how supply and demand interact during industrial emergence. Design/methodology/approach: The paper builds on previous theorising about co-evolutionary dynamics, exploring the interaction between supply and demand in a study of the industrial emergence of the commercial inkjet cluster in Cambridge, UK. Data are collected through 13 interviews with professionals working in the industry. Findings: The paper shows that as new industries emerge, asynchronies between technology supply and market demand create opportunities for entrepreneurial activity. In attempting to match innovative technologies to particular applications, entrepreneurs adapt to the system conditions and shape the environment to their own advantage. Firms that successfully operate in emerging industries demonstrate the functionality of new technologies, reducing uncertainty and increasing customer receptiveness. Research limitations/implications: The research is geographically bounded to the Cambridge commercial inkjet cluster. Further studies could consider commercial inkjet from a global perspective or test the applicability of the findings in other industries. Practical implications: Technology-based firms are often innovating during periods of industrial emergence. The insights developed in this paper help such firms recognise the emerging context in which they operate and the challenges that need to overcome. Originality/value: As an in depth study of a single industry, this research responds to calls for studies into industrial emergence, providing insights into how supply and demand interact during this phase of the industry lifecycle. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Exploring geographical dispersion in Thailand-based food supply chain (FSC)

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the key influential factors and their implications on food supply chain (FSC) location decisions from a Thailand-based manufacturer's view. Design/methodology/approach: In total, 21 case studies were conducted with eight Thailand-based food manufacturers. In each case, key influential factors were observed along with their implications on upstream and downstream FSC location decisions. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and documentations. Data reduction and data display in tables were used to help data analysis of the case studies. Findings: This exploratory research found that, in the food industry, FSC geographical dispersion pattern could be determined by four factors: perishability, value density, economic-political forces, and technological forces. Technological forces were found as an enabler for FSC geographical dispersion whereas the other three factors could be both barriers and enablers. The implications of these four influential factors drive FSC towards four key patterns of FSC geographical dispersion: local supply chain (SC), supply-proximity SC, market-proximity SC, and international SC. Additionally, the strategy of the firm was found to also be an influential factor in determining FSC geographical dispersion. Research limitations/implications: Despite conducting 21 cases, the findings in this research are based on a relatively small sample, given the large size of the industry. More case evidence from a broader range of food product market and supply items, particularly ones that have significantly different patterns of FSC geographical dispersions would have been insightful. The consideration of additional influential factors such as labour movement between developing countries, currency fluctuations and labour costs, would also enrich the framework as well as improve the quality and validity of the research findings. The different strategies employed by the case companies and their implications on FSC location decisions should also be further investigated along with cases outside Thailand, to provide a more comprehensive view of FSC geographical location decisions. Practical implications: This paper provides insights how FSC is geographically located in both supply-side and demand-side from a manufacturing firm's view. The findings can also provide SC managers and researchers a better understanding of their FSCs. Originality/value: This research bridges the existing gap in the literature, explaining the geographical dispersion of SC particularly in the food industry where the characteristics are very specific, by exploring the internationalization ability of Thailand-based FSC and generalizing the key influential factors - perishability (lead time), value density, economic-political forces, market opportunities, and technological advancements. Four key patterns of FSC internationalization emerged from the case studies. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Mapping the global flow of aluminum: from liquid aluminum to end-use goods.

Demand for aluminum in final products has increased 30-fold since 1950 to 45 million tonnes per year, with forecasts predicting this exceptional growth to continue so that demand will reach 2-3 times today's levels by 2050. Aluminum production uses 3.5% of global electricity and causes 1% of global CO2 emissions, while meeting a 50% cut in emissions by 2050 against growing demand would require at least a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions per tonne of aluminum produced--a challenging prospect. In this paper we trace the global flows of aluminum from liquid metal to final products, revealing for the first time a complete map of the aluminum system and providing a basis for future study of the emissions abatement potential of material efficiency. The resulting Sankey diagram also draws attention to two key issues. First, around half of all liquid aluminum (~39 Mt) produced each year never reaches a final product, and a detailed discussion of these high yield losses shows significant opportunities for improvement. Second, aluminum recycling, which avoids the high energy costs and emissions of electrolysis, requires signification "dilution" (~ 8 Mt) and "cascade" (~ 6 Mt) flows of higher aluminum grades to make up for the shortfall in scrap supply and to obtain the desired alloy mix, increasing the energy required for recycling.

Designing climate change mitigation plans that add up.

Mitigation plans to combat climate change depend on the combined implementation of many abatement options, but the options interact. Published anthropogenic emissions inventories are disaggregated by gas, sector, country, or final energy form. This allows the assessment of novel energy supply options, but is insufficient for understanding how options for efficiency and demand reduction interact. A consistent framework for understanding the drivers of emissions is therefore developed, with a set of seven complete inventories reflecting all technical options for mitigation connected through lossless allocation matrices. The required data set is compiled and calculated from a wide range of industry, government, and academic reports. The framework is used to create a global Sankey diagram to relate human demand for services to anthropogenic emissions. The application of this framework is demonstrated through a prediction of per-capita emissions based on service demand in different countries, and through an example showing how the "technical potentials" of a set of separate mitigation options should be combined.

A global assessment of manufacturing: Economic development, energy use, carbon emissions, and the potential for energy efficiency and materials recycling

We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon emissions from a country perspective, tracking the rise of China and other developing countries. The results show not only a rise in the economic fortunes of the newly industrializing nations, but also a significant rise in global pollution, particularly air pollution and CO2 emissions largely from coal use, which alter and even reverse previous global trends. In the second part, we change perspective and quantitatively evaluate two important technical strategies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions: energy efficiency and materials recycling. We subdivide the manufacturing sector on the basis of the five major subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d) paper, and (e) aluminum. The analysis identifies technical constraints on these strategies, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical improvements. The result would be high but relatively flat energy use and carbon emissions. The review closes by demonstrating the consequences of extrapolating trends in production and carbon emissions and suggesting two options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. © 2013 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.