Coherent design methodology using modelling, simulation and optimisation

There is an increasing demand for optimising complete systems and the devices within that system, including capturing the interactions between the various multi-disciplinary (MD) components involved. Furthermore confidence in robust solutions is esential. As a consequence the computational cost rapidly increases and in many cases becomes infeasible to perform such conceptual designs. A coherent design methodology is proposed, where the aim is to improve the design process by effectively exploiting the potential of computational synthesis, search and optimisation and conventional simulation, with a reduction of the computational cost. This optimization framework consists of a hybrid optimization algorithm to handles multi-fidelity simulations. Simultaneously and in order to handles uncertainty without recasting the model and at affordable computational cost, a stochastic modelling method known as non-intrusive polynomial chaos is introduced. The effectiveness of the design methodology is demonstrated with the optimisation of a submarine propulsion system.

Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall-runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. © 2011 Copyright IAHS Press.

Modelling within-host spatiotemporal dynamics of invasive bacterial disease

Mechanistic determinants of bacterial growth, death, and spread within mammalian hosts cannot be fully resolved studying a single bacterial population. They are also currently poorly understood. Here, we report on the application of sophisticated experimental approaches to map spatiotemporal population dynamics of bacteria during an infection. We analyzed heterogeneous traits of simultaneous infections with tagged Salmonella enterica populations (wild-type isogenic tagged strains [WITS]) in wild-type and gene-targeted mice. WITS are phenotypically identical but can be distinguished and enumerated by quantitative PCR, making it possible, using probabilistic models, to estimate bacterial death rate based on the disappearance of strains through time. This multidisciplinary approach allowed us to establish the timing, relative occurrence, and immune control of key infection parameters in a true host-pathogen combination. Our analyses support a model in which shortly after infection, concomitant death and rapid bacterial replication lead to the establishment of independent bacterial subpopulations in different organs, a process controlled by host antimicrobial mechanisms. Later, decreased microbial mortality leads to an exponential increase in the number of bacteria that spread locally, with subsequent mixing of bacteria between organs via bacteraemia and further stochastic selection. This approach provides us with an unprecedented outlook on the pathogenesis of S. enterica infections, illustrating the complex spatial and stochastic effects that drive an infectious disease. The application of the novel method that we present in appropriate and diverse host-pathogen combinations, together with modelling of the data that result, will facilitate a comprehensive view of the spatial and stochastic nature of within-host dynamics. © 2008 Grant et al.

Modelling soot formation in a DISI engine

In this work, the formation of soot in a Direct Injection Spark Ignition (DISI) engine is simulated using the Stochastic Reactor Model (SRM) engine code. Volume change, convective heat transfer, turbulent mixing, direct injection and flame propagation are accounted for. In order to simulate flame propagation, the cylinder is divided into an unburned, entrained and burned zone, with the rate of entrainment being governed by empirical equations but combustion modelled with chemical kinetics. The model contains a detailed chemical mechanism as well as a highly detailed soot formation model, however computation times are relatively short. The soot model provides information on the morphology and chemical composition of soot aggregates along with bulk quantities, including soot mass, number density, volume fraction and surface area. The model is first calibrated by simulating experimental data from a Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) Spark Ignition (SI) engine. The model is then used to simulate experimental data from the literature, where the numbers, sizes and derived mass particulate emissions from a 1.83 L, 4-cylinder, 4 valve production DISI engine were examined. Experimental results from different injection and spark timings are compared with the model and the qualitative trends in aggregate size distribution and emissions match the exhaust gas measurements well. © 2010 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A fast detailed-chemistry modelling approach for simulating the SI-HCCI transition

An established Stochastic Reactor Model (SRM) is used to simulate the transition from Spark Ignition (SI) to Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) combustion mode in a four cylinder in-line four-stroke naturally aspirated direct injection SI engine with cam profile switching. The SRM is coupled with GT-Power, a one-dimensional engine simulation tool used for modelling engine breathing during the open valve portion of the engine cycle, enabling multi-cycle simulations. The mode change is achieved by switching the cam profiles and phasing, resulting in a Negative Valve Overlap (NVO), opening the throttle, advancing the spark timing and reducing the fuel mass as well as using a pilot injection. A proven technique for tabulating the model is used to create look-up tables in both SI and HCCI modes. In HCCI mode several tables are required, including tables for the first NVO, transient valve timing NVO, transient valve timing HCCI and steady valve timing HCCI and NVO. This results in the ability to simulate the transition with detailed chemistry in very short computation times. The tables are then used to optimise the transition with the goal of reducing NO x emissions and fluctuations in IMEP. Copyright © 2010 SAE International.