Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

The role of infrastructure in improving human settlements

This paper considers how the provision of integrated household-level infrastructure – particularly water and environmental sanitation (including water supply, sewerage, roads, storm drainage and solid waste management) –can play a leading role in improving the conditions in slum settlements. Around 700 socio-economic interviews were carried out in India and South Africa to investigate an innovative approach called slum networking, which sees the strong correlation between slum locations and drainage paths as an opportunity for improving the wider urban environment. This recognition allows resources to be mobilised locally, thereby removing the need for external aid funding. The evidence from the 700 families shows that communities perceive water and sanitation inputs to be their top priority and are willing to contribute to the costs. If slum upgrading is led with access to integrated water and environmental sanitation at household level with community contributions to the cost of infrastructure, then slum communities subsequently invest considerably greater sums in improved housing and education, with longer term contributions to poverty alleviation, improvements in health and literacy and an increase in disposable incomes.