A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Energy use of buildings at urban scale: A case study of london school buildings

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop building stock models. This research proposes an engineering-based bottom-up stock model in a probabilistic manner to address these issues. School buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. Two sampling-based global sensitivity methods are used to identify key factors affecting building energy performance. The sensitivity analysis methods can also create statistical regression models for inverse analysis, which are used to estimate input information for building stock energy models. The effects of different energy saving measures are analysed by changing these building stock input distributions.