Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall-runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. © 2011 Copyright IAHS Press.

Masonry response to tunnelling: a sensitivity study on the effect of cracking and building weight

Predicting damage to masonry structures due to tunnelling-induced ground movements remains a challenge for practising design engineers. Useful simplified procedures exist, but more detailed analysis has the potential to improve these procedures. This paper considers the use of finite element modelling, including non-linear constitutive laws for the soil and the structure, to simulate damage to a simple masonry structure subjected to tunnelling in sand. The numerical model is validated through comparison with the results of a series of centrifuge tests and used to perform a sensitivity study on the effect of building weight and masonry damage on the structural response. Results show a direct correlation between the weight of the structure, normalised to the relative stiffness between the structure and the soil, and the modification of the settlement profile. By including a cracking model for the masonry, the reduction in structural stiffness caused by progressive masonry damage is also proven to affect the building deflection.