Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Risk-based approaches to sustainability in civil engineering

Infrastructure project sustainability assessment typically entails the use of specialised assessment tools to measure and rate project performance against a set of criteria. This paper looks beyond the prevailing approaches to sustainability assessments and explores sustainability principles in terms of project risks and opportunities. Taking a risk management approach to applying sustainability concepts to projects has the potential to reconceptualise decision structures for sustainability from bespoke assessments to becoming a standard part of the project decisionmaking process. By integrating issues of sustainability into project risk management for project planning, design and construction, sustainability is considered within a more traditional business and engineering language. Currently, there is no widely practised approach for objectively considering the environmental and social context of projects alongside the more traditional project risk assessments of time, cost and quality. A risk-based approach would not solve all the issues associated with existing sustainability assessments but it would place sustainability concerns alongside other key risks and opportunities, integrating sustainability with other project decisions.