Risk based lifetime costs assessment of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system design: Methodology and case study

Space heating accounts for a large portion of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) are a technology which can reduce carbon emissions from heating and cooling. GSHP system performance is however highly sensitive to deviation from design values of the actual annual energy extraction/rejection rates from/to the ground. In order to prevent failure and/or performance deterioration of GSHP systems it is possible to incorporate a safety factor in the design of the GSHP by over-sizing the ground heat exchanger (GHE). A methodology to evaluate the financial risk involved in over-sizing the GHE is proposed is this paper. A probability based approach is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of a hypothetical full-size GSHP system as compared to four alternative Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system configurations. The model of the GSHP system is developed in the TRNSYS energy simulation platform and calibrated with data from an actual hybrid GSHP system installed in the Department of Earth Science, University of Oxford, UK. Results of the analysis show that potential savings from a full-size GSHP system largely depend on projected HVAC system efficiencies and gas and electricity prices. Results of the risk analysis also suggest that a full-size GSHP with auxiliary back up is potentially the most economical system configuration. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated Detection of Exposed Reinforcement in Post-Earthquake Safety and Structural Evaluations

The world is at the threshold of emerging technologies, where new systems in construction, materials, and civil and architectural design are poised to make the world better from a structural and construction perspective. Exciting developments, that are too many to name individually, take place yearly, affecting design considerations and construction practices. This edited book brings together modern methods and advances in structural engineering and construction, fulfilling the mission of ISEC Conferences, which is to enhance communication and understanding between structural and construction engineers for successful design and construction of engineering projects. The articles in this book are those accepted for publication and presentation at the 6th International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference in Zurich. The 6th ISEC Conference in Zurich, Switzerland, follows the overwhelming reception and success of previous ISEC conference in Las Vegas, USA in 2009; Melbourne, Australia in 2007; Shunan, Japan in 2005; Rome, Italy in 2003; and Honolulu, USA in 2001. Many topics are covered in this book, ranging from legal affairs and contracting, to innovations and risk analysis in infrastructure projects, analysis and design of structural systems, materials, architecture, and construction. The articles here are a lasting testimony to the excellent research being undertaken around the world. These articles provide a platform for the exchange of ideas, research efforts and networking in the structural engineering and construction communities. We congratulate and thank the authors for these articles that were selected after intensive peer-review, and our gratitude extends to all reviewers and members of the International Technical Committee. It is their combined contributions that have made this book a reality.