10 resultados para Probabilidade de default

em Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database


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Humans are creatures of routine and habit. When faced with situations in which a default option is available, people show a consistent tendency to stick with the default. Why this occurs is unclear. To elucidate its neural basis, we used a novel gambling task in conjunction with functional magnetic resonance imaging. Behavioral results revealed that participants were more likely to choose the default card and felt enhanced emotional responses to outcomes after making the decision to switch. We show that increased tendency to switch away from the default during the decision phase was associated with decreased activity in the anterior insula; activation in this same area in reaction to "switching away from the default and losing" was positively related with experienced frustration. In contrast, decisions to choose the default engaged the ventral striatum, the same reward area as seen in winning. Our findings highlight aversive processes in the insula as underlying the default bias and suggest that choosing the default may be rewarding in itself.

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A novel monolithically integrated Michelson interferometer using intersecting twin-contact semiconductor optical amplifiers is proposed and implemented whereby the two arms are gain imbalanced to give enhanced noise suppression. Experimental OSNR improvements of 8.4 dB for pulses with durations 8 ps and by default ER of 14 dB are demonstrated for low driving currents of between 25 and 30 mA. This is believed to be the smallest Michelson interferometer to date.

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Three-dimensional bumps have been developed and investigated, aiming at the two major objectives of shock-wave / boundary-layer interaction control, i.e. drag reduction and suppression of separation, simultaneously. An experimental investigation has been conducted for a default rounded bump in channel now at University of Cambridge and a computational study has been performed for a spanwise series of rounded bumps mounted on a transonic aerofoil at University of Stuttgart. Observed in both cases are wave drag reduction owing to A-shock structures produced by three-dimensional surface bumps and mild control effects on the boundary layer. The effects of rough surface and tall extension have been investigated as well as several geometric variations and multiple bump configurations. A double configuration of narrow rounded bumps has been found to best perform amongst the tested, considerably reducing wave drag through a well-established A-shock structure with little viscous penalty and thus achieving substantial overall drag reduction. Counter-rotating streamwise vortex pairs have been produced by some configurations as a result of local flow separation, but they have been observed to be confined in relatively narrow wake regions, expected to be beneficial in suppressing large-scale separation under off-design condition despite increase of viscous drag. On the whole a large potential of three-dimensional control with discrete rounded bumps has been demonstrated both experimentally and numerically, and experimental investigation of bumps fitted on a transonic aerofoil or wing is suggested toward practical application.

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The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a widely used method in control and time series applications. The UKF suffers from arbitrary parameters necessary for a step known as sigma point placement, causing it to perform poorly in nonlinear problems. We show how to treat sigma point placement in a UKF as a learning problem in a model based view. We demonstrate that learning to place the sigma points correctly from data can make sigma point collapse much less likely. Learning can result in a significant increase in predictive performance over default settings of the parameters in the UKF and other filters designed to avoid the problems of the UKF, such as the GP-ADF. At the same time, we maintain a lower computational complexity than the other methods. We call our method UKF-L. ©2010 IEEE.

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The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a widely used method in control and time series applications. The UKF suffers from arbitrary parameters necessary for sigma point placement, potentially causing it to perform poorly in nonlinear problems. We show how to treat sigma point placement in a UKF as a learning problem in a model based view. We demonstrate that learning to place the sigma points correctly from data can make sigma point collapse much less likely. Learning can result in a significant increase in predictive performance over default settings of the parameters in the UKF and other filters designed to avoid the problems of the UKF, such as the GP-ADF. At the same time, we maintain a lower computational complexity than the other methods. We call our method UKF-L. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

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This paper aims to solve the fault tolerant control problem of a wind turbine benchmark. A hierarchical controller with model predictive pre-compensators, a global model predictive controller and a supervisory controller is proposed. In the model predictive pre-compensator, an extended Kalman Filter is designed to estimate the system states and various fault parameters. Based on the estimation, a group of model predictive controllers are designed to compensate the fault effects for each component of the wind turbine. The global MPC is used to schedule the operation of the components and exploit potential system-level redundancies. Extensive simulations of various fault conditions show that the proposed controller has small transients when faults occur and uses smoother and smaller generator torque and pitch angle inputs than the default controller. This paper shows that MPC can be a good candidate for fault tolerant controllers, especially the one with an adaptive internal model combined with a parameter estimation and update mechanism, such as an extended Kalman Filter. © 2012 IFAC.

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Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is becoming increasingly central to many people’s lives, making it possible to be connected in any place at any time, be unceasingly and instantly informed, and benefit from greater economic and educational opportunities. With all the benefits afforded by these new-found capabilities, however, come potential drawbacks. A plethora of new PCs, laptops, tablets, smartphones, Bluetooth, the internet, Wi-Fi (the list goes on) expect us to know or be able to guess, what, where and when to connect, click, double-click, tap, flick, scroll, in order to realise these benefits, and to have the physical and cognitive capability to do all these things. One of the groups most affected by this increase in high-demand technology is older people. They do not understand and use technology in the same way that younger generations do, because they grew up in the simpler electro-mechanical era and embedded that particular model of the world in their minds. Any consequential difficulty in familiarising themselves with modern ICT and effectively applying it to their needs can also be exacerbated by age-related changes in vision, motor control and cognitive functioning. Such challenges lead to digital exclusion. Much has been written about this topic over the years, usually by academics from the area of inclusive product design. The issue is complex and it is fair to say that no one researcher has the whole picture. It is difficult to understand and adequately address the issue of digital exclusion among the older generation without looking across disciplines and at industry’s and government’s understanding, motivation and efforts toward resolving this important problem. To do otherwise is to risk misunderstanding the true impact that ICT has and could have on people’s lives across all generations. In this European year of Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations and as the British government is moving forward with its Digital by Default initiative as part of a wider objective to make ICT accessible to as many people as possible by 2015, the Engineering Design Centre (EDC) at the University of Cambridge collaborated with BT to produce a book of thought pieces to address, and where appropriate redress, these important and long-standing issues. “Ageing, Adaption and Accessibility: Time for the Inclusive Revolution!” brings together opinions and insights from twenty one prominent thought leaders from government, industry and academia regarding the problems, opportunities and strategies for combating digital exclusion among senior citizens. The contributing experts were selected as individuals, rather than representatives of organisations, to provide the broadest possible range of perspectives. They are renowned in their respective fields and their opinions are formed not only from their own work, but also from the contributions of others in their area. Their views were elicited through conversations conducted by the editors of this book who then drafted the thought pieces to be edited and approved by the experts. We hope that this unique collection of thought pieces will give you a broader perspective on ageing, people’s adaption to the ever changing world of technology and insights into better ways of designing digital devices and services for the older population.

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Ideally, one would like to perform image search using an intuitive and friendly approach. Many existing image search engines, however, present users with sets of images arranged in some default order on the screen, typically the relevance to a query, only. While this certainly has its advantages, arguably, a more flexible and intuitive way would be to sort images into arbitrary structures such as grids, hierarchies, or spheres so that images that are visually or semantically alike are placed together. This paper focuses on designing such a navigation system for image browsers. This is a challenging task because arbitrary layout structure makes it difficult - if not impossible - to compute cross-similarities between images and structure coordinates, the main ingredient of traditional layouting approaches. For this reason, we resort to a recently developed machine learning technique: kernelized sorting. It is a general technique for matching pairs of objects from different domains without requiring cross-domain similarity measures and hence elegantly allows sorting images into arbitrary structures. Moreover, we extend it so that some images can be preselected for instance forming the tip of the hierarchy allowing to subsequently navigate through the search results in the lower levels in an intuitive way. Copyright 2010 ACM.

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Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

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In this work, we performed an evaluation of decay heat power of advanced, fast spectrum, lead and molten salt-cooled reactors, with flexible conversion ratio. The decay heat power was calculated using the BGCore computer code, which explicitly tracks over 1700 isotopes in the fuel throughout its burnup and subsequent decay. In the first stage, the capability of the BGCore code to accurately predict the decay heat power was verified by performing a benchmark calculation for a typical UO2 fuel in a Pressurized Water Reactor environment against the (ANSI/ANS-5.1-2005, "Decay Heat Power in Light Water Reactors," American National Standard) standard. Very good agreement (within 5%) between the two methods was obtained. Once BGCore calculation capabilities were verified, we calculated decay power for fast reactors with different coolants and conversion ratios, for which no standard procedure is currently available. Notable differences were observed for the decay power of the advanced reactor as compared with the conventional UO2 LWR. The importance of the observed differences was demonstrated by performing a simulation of a Station Blackout transient with the RELAP5 computer code for a lead-cooled fast reactor. The simulation was performed twice: using the code-default ANS-79 decay heat curve and using the curve calculated specifically for the studied core by BGCore code. The differences in the decay heat power resulted in failure to meet maximum cladding temperature limit criteria by ∼100 °C in the latter case, while in the transient simulation with the ANS-79 decay heat curve, all safety limits were satisfied. The results of this study show that the design of new reactor safety systems must be based on decay power curves specific to each individual case in order to assure the desired performance of these systems. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.