Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

The environmental and economic sustainability of potential bioethanol from willow in the UK.

Life cycle assessment has been used to investigate the environmental and economic sustainability of a potential operation in the UK in which bioethanol is produced from the hydrolysis and subsequent fermentation of coppice willow. If the willow were grown on idle arable land in the UK, or, indeed, in Eastern Europe and imported as wood chips into the UK, it was found that savings of greenhouse gas emissions of 70-90%, when compared to fossil-derived gasoline on an energy basis, would be possible. The process would be energetically self-sufficient, as the co-products, e.g. lignin and unfermented sugars, could be used to produce the process heat and electricity, with surplus electricity being exported to the National Grid. Despite the environmental benefits, the economic viability is doubtful at present. However, the cost of production could be reduced significantly if the willow were altered by breeding to improve its suitability for hydrolysis and fermentation.

Environmental evaluation of localising production as a strategy for sustainable development: a case study of two consumer goods in Jamaica

The objective of this study was to compare the life-cycle environmental impacts of changed production structures for two consumer goods (high-density polyethylene (HDPE) shopping bags and beds) in Jamaica. A scenario technique was used to construct three alternative production structures for each product; each scenario reflecting an increase in local production in Jamaica which depended on an increased supply of input materials which may be sourced: (1) externally from overseas suppliers, (2) from post-consumer recycling, and (3) locally on the island of Jamaica. These three constructed scenarios were then compared to the existing supply chain or reference scenarios of the products. The results showed that for both case products the recycling scenario was most preferable for localising production, resulting in the lowest environmental impact. This was because the production of raw materials accounted for the largest effect on total environmental impact. As such, the most immediate environmental improvements were realised by lowering the production of virgin materials. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.