Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

A survey of alternative once-through fast reactor core designs

Reprocessing of Light Water Reactor (LWR) spent fuel to recover plutonium or transuranics for use in Sodium cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs) is a distant prospect in the U.S.A. This has motivated our evaluation of potentially cost-effective operation of uranium startup fast reactors (USFRs) in a once-through mode. This review goes beyond findings reported earlier based on a UC fueled MgO reflected SFR to describe a broader parametric study of options. Cores were evaluated for a variety of fuel/coolant/reflector combinations: UC/UZr/UO 2/UN;Na/Pb; MgO/SS/Zr. The challenge is achieving high burnup while minimizing enrichment and respecting both cladding fluence/dpa and reactivity lifetime limits. These parametric studies show that while UC fuel is still the leading contender, UO 2 fuel and ZrH 1.7 moderated metallic fuel are also attractive if UC proves to be otherwise inadequate. Overall, these findings support the conclusion that a competitive fuel cycle cost and uranium utilization compared to LWRs is possible for SFRs operated on a once-through uranium fueled fuel cycle. In addition, eventual transition to TRU recycle mode is studied, as is a small test reactor to demonstrate key features.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative powertrains for reduced energy use and CO2 emissions in passenger vehicles

This work analysed the cost-effectiveness of avoiding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using advanced internal combustion engines, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles across the nine UK passenger vehicles segments. Across all vehicle types and powertrain groups, minimum installed motive power was dependent most on the time to accelerate from zero to 96.6km/h (60mph). Hybridising the powertrain reduced the difference in energy use between vehicles with slow (t z - 60 > 8 s) and fast acceleration (t z - 60 < 8 s) times. The cost premium associated with advanced powertrains was dependent most on the powertrain chosen, rather than the performance required. Improving non-powertrain components reduced vehicle road load and allowed total motive capacity to decrease by 17%, energy use by 11%, manufacturing cost premiums by 13% and CO2 emissions abatement costs by 15%. All vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines, most hybrid and plug-in hybrid powertrains reduced net CO2 emissions and had lower lifetime operating costs than the respective segment reference vehicle. Most powertrains using fuel cells and all electric vehicles had positive CO2 emissions abatement costs. However, only vehicles using advanced internal combustion engines and parallel hybrid vehicles may be attractive to consumers by the fuel savings offsetting increases in vehicle cost within two years. This work demonstrates that fuel savings are possible relative to today's fleet, but indicates that the most cost-effective way of reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions is by advanced combustion technologies and hybridisation with a parallel topology. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Air quality and climate impacts of alternative bus technologies in Greater London.

The environmental impact of diesel-fueled buses can potentially be reduced by the adoption of alternative propulsion technologies such as lean-burn compressed natural gas (LB-CNG) or hybrid electric buses (HEB), and emissions control strategies such as a continuously regenerating trap (CRT), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), or selective catalytic reduction with trap (SCRT). This study assessed the environmental costs and benefits of these bus technologies in Greater London relative to the existing fleet and characterized emissions changes due to alternative technologies. We found a >30% increase in CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions for CNG buses, a <5% change for exhaust treatment scenarios, and a 13% (90% confidence interval 3.8-20.9%) reduction for HEB relative to baseline CO2e emissions. A multiscale regional chemistry-transport model quantified the impact of alternative bus technologies on air quality, which was then related to premature mortality risk. We found the largest decrease in population exposure (about 83%) to particulate matter (PM2.5) occurred with LB-CNG buses. Monetized environmental and investment costs relative to the baseline gave estimated net present cost of LB-CNG or HEB conversion to be $187 million ($73 million to $301 million) or $36 million ($-25 million to $102 million), respectively, while EGR or SCRT estimated net present costs were $19 million ($7 million to $32 million) or $15 million ($8 million to $23 million), respectively.

The use of syntax and multiple alternatives in the VODIS voice operated database inquiry system

The paper describes the architecture of VODIS, a voice operated database inquiry system, and presents some experiments which investigate the effects on performance of varying the level of a priori syntactic constraints. The VODIS system includes a novel mechanism for incorporating context-free grammatical constraints directly into the word recognition algorithm. This allows the degree of a priori constraint to be smoothly varied and provides for the controlled generation of multiple alternatives. The results show that when the spoken input deviates from the predefined task grammar, a combination of weak a priori syntax rules in conjunction with full a posteriori parsing on a lattice of alternative word matches provides the most robust recognition performance. © 1991.

Design and commissioning of a 30kw direct drive wave generator

The Trident Energy TE5 is a prototype wave energy converter operating on the principle of having direct-drive linear generators mounted above the water surface, coupled to floats moving under the rig deck. This paper describes aspects of the TE5 design, including its generators, power electronic systems and the conception of its marine structure.

The double dance of agency: a socio-theoretic account of how machines and humans interact

The nature of the relationship between information technology (IT) and organizations has been a long-standing debate in the Information Systems literature. Does IT shape organizations, or do people in organisations control how IT is used? To formulate the question a little differently: does agency (the capacity to make a difference) lie predominantly with machines (computer systems) or humans (organisational actors)? Many proposals for a middle way between the extremes of technological and social determinism have been put advanced; in recent years researchers oriented towards social theories have focused on structuration theory and (lately) actor network theory. These two theories, however, adopt different and incompatible views of agency. Thus, structuration theory sees agency as exclusively a property of humans, whereas the principle of general symmetry in actor network theory implies that machines may also be agents. Drawing on critiques of both structuration theory and actor network theory, this paper develops a theoretical account of the interaction between human and machine agency: the double dance of agency. The account seeks to contribute to theorisation of the relationship between technology and organisation by recognizing both the different character of human and machine agency, and the emergent properties of their interplay.

Effects of parylene-C photooxidation on serum-assisted glial and neuronal patterning.

The increasing use of patterned neural networks in multielectrode arrays and similar devices drives the constant development and evaluation of new biomaterials. Recently, we presented a promising technique to guide neurons and glia reliably and effectively. Parylene-C, a common hydrophobic polymer, was photolithographically patterned on silicon oxide (SiO(2)) and subsequently activated via immersion in serum. In this article, we explore the effects of ultraviolet (UV)-induced oxidation on parylene's ability to pattern neurons and glia. We exposed parylene-C stripe patterns to increasing levels of UV radiation and found a dose-dependent reduction in the total mass of patterned cells, as well as a gradual loss of glial and neuronal conformity to the patterns. In contrast, nonirradiated patterns had superior patterning results and increased presence of cells. The reduced cell adhesion and patterning after the formation of aldehyde and carboxyl groups on UV-radiated parylene-C supports our hypothesis that cell adhesion and growth on parylene is facilitated by hydrophobic adsorption of serum proteins. We conclude that unlike other cell patterning schemes, our technique does not rely on photooxidation of the polymer. Nonetheless, the precise control of oxygenated groups on parylene could pave the way for the differential binding of proteins and other molecules on the surface, aiding in the adhesion of alternative cell types. (c) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res, 2010.

Implications of local lifecycle analyses and low carbon fuel standard design on gasohol transportation fuels

State and regional policies, such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFSs), increasingly mandate that transportation fuels be examined according to their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We investigate whether such policies benefit from determining fuel carbon intensities (FCIs) locally to account for variations in fuel production and to stimulate improvements in FCI. In this study, we examine the FCI of transportation fuels on a lifecycle basis within a specific state, Minnesota, and compare the results to FCIs using national averages. Using data compiled from 18 refineries over an 11-year period, we find that ethanol production is highly variable, resulting in a 42% difference between carbon intensities. Historical data suggests that lower FCIs are possible through incremental improvements in refining efficiency and the use of biomass for processing heat. Stochastic modeling of the corn ethanol FCI shows that gains in certainty due to knowledge of specific refinery inputs are overwhelmed by uncertainty in parameters external to the refiner, including impacts of fertilization and land use change. The LCA results are incorporated into multiple policy scenarios to demonstrate the effect of policy configurations on the use of alternative fuels. These results provide a contrast between volumetric mandates and LCFSs. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

The evolution of information while building cross-domain models of a design: A video experiment

Models capturing the connectivity between different domains of a design, e.g. between components and functions, can provide a tool for tracing and analysing aspects of that design. In this paper, video experiments are used to explore the role of cross-domain modelling in building up information about a design. The experiments highlight that cross-domain modelling can be a useful tool to create and structure design information. Findings suggest that consideration of multiple domains encourages discussion during modelling, helps identify design aspects that might otherwise be overlooked, and can help promote consideration of alternative design options. Copyright © 2002-2012 The Design Society. All rights reserved.