Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Design, development, and evaluation of a simple blackbody radiative source

This paper presents a simple design and the testing of a blackbody prototype. The physical properties and geometry of the cavity produce a radiator or blackbody with an emissivity greater than 0.99. The prototype has the advantages of having a traditional spherical cavity made of alumina refractory cement and a radiative emission very close to that of an ideal blackbody. The prototype can be used as a calibration standard for other radiation measuring instruments or sensors. Experimental measurements of radiant flux of the prototype measured with a calibrated infrared radiometer and a wide spectrum radiometer are also presented. The prototype is easy to construct and the material required are available to most research centers, laboratories, industries, and universities. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

Analysis and retrofitting design of a single-span R.C. bridge

This paper deals with the case history of a damaged one-span prestressed concrete bridge on a crucial artery near the city of Cagliari (Sardinia), along the sea-side. After being involved in a disastrous flood, attention has arisen on the worrying safety state of the deck, submitted to an intense daily traffic load. Evident signs of this severe condition were the deterioration of the beams concrete and the corrosion, the lack of tension and even the rupture of the prestressing cables. After performing a limited in situ test campaign, consisting of sclerometer, pull out and carbonation depth tests, a first evaluation of the safety of the structure was performed. After collecting the data of dynamic and static load tests as well, a comprehensive analysis have been carried out, also by means of a properly calibrated F.E. model. Finally the retrofitting design is presented, consisting of the reparation and thickening of the concrete cover, providing flexural and shear FRP external reinforcements and an external prestressing system, capable of restoring a satisfactory bearing capacity, according to the current national codes. The intervention has been calibrated by the former F.E. model with respect to transversal effects and influence of local and overall deformation of reinforced elements. © 2012 Taylor & Francis Group.