Simulating dynamic covariance structures for testing the adaptive behavior of variable selection algorithms (Invited Paper)

Variable selection for regression is a classical statistical problem, motivated by concerns that too large a number of covariates may bring about overfitting and unnecessarily high measurement costs. Novel difficulties arise in streaming contexts, where the correlation structure of the process may be drifting, in which case it must be constantly tracked so that selections may be revised accordingly. A particularly interesting phenomenon is that non-selected covariates become missing variables, inducing bias on subsequent decisions. This raises an intricate exploration-exploitation tradeoff, whose dependence on the covariance tracking algorithm and the choice of variable selection scheme is too complex to be dealt with analytically. We hence capitalise on the strength of simulations to explore this problem, taking the opportunity to tackle the difficult task of simulating dynamic correlation structures. © 2008 IEEE.

Mixing ventilation can reduce energy costs

The article provides information on a study on the potential of mixing ventilation in reducing energy costs in buildings such as theaters and schools. The study found that neither Manchester’s Contact Theatre and the Garrick Theatre in Lichfield in England is operating according to the displacement-ventilation principle upon which they were designed. Hybrid mixing ventilation has an important impact on both the ventilation rate and the thermal comfort of the theatres.

How much do we spend to save? Calculating the embodied carbon costs of retrofit

The drive to reduce carbon emissions from domestic housing has led to a recent shift of focus from new-­‐build to retrofit. However there are two significant differences. Firstly more work is needed to retrofit existing housing to the same energy efficiency standards as new-­‐build. Secondly the remaining length of service life is potentially shorter. This implies that the capital expenditure – both financial and carbon -­‐ of retrofit may be disproportionate to the savings gained over the remaining life. However the Government’s definition of low and zero carbon continues to exclude the capital (embodied) carbon costs of construction, which has resulted in a lack of data for comparison. The paper addresses this gap by reporting the embodied carbon costs of retrofitting four individual pilot properties in Rampton Drift, part of an Eco-­‐Town Demonstrator Project in Cambridgeshire. Through collecting details of the materials used and their journeys from manufacturer to site, the paper conducts a ‘cradle-­‐to-­‐gate’ life cycle carbon assessment for each property. The embodied carbon figures are calculated using a software tool being developed by the Centre for Sustainable Development at the University of Cambridge. The key aims are to assess the real embodied carbon costs of retrofit of domestic properties, and to test the new tool; it is hoped that the methodology, the tool and the specific findings will be transferable to other projects. Initial changes in operational energy as a result of the retrofit works will be reported and compared with the embodied carbon costs when presenting this paper.

Improved energy efficiency in paper making through reducing dryer steam consumption using advanced process control

Over the last two or three years, the increasing costs of energy and worsening market conditions have focussed even greater attention within paper mills than before, on considering ways to improve efficiency and reduce the energy used in paper making. Arising from a multivariable understanding of paper machine operation, Advanced Process Control (APC) technology enables paper machine behaviour to be controlled in a more coherent way, using all the variables available for control. Furthermore, with the machine under better regulation and with more variables used in control, there is the opportunity to optimise machine operation, usually providing very striking multi-objective performance improvement benefits of a number of kinds. Traditional three term control technology does not offer this capability. The paper presents results from several different paper machine projects we have undertaken around the world. These projects have been aimed at improving machine stability, optimising chemicals usage and reducing energy use. On a brown paperboard machine in Australasia, APC has reduced specific steam usage by 10%, averaged across the grades; the controller has also provided a significant capacity to increase production. On a North American newsprint machine, the APC system has reduced steam usage by more than 10%, and it provides better control of colour and much improved wet end stability. The paper also outlines early results from two other performance improvement projects, each incorporating a different approach to reducing the energy used in paper making. The first of these two projects is focussed on optimising sheet drainage, aiming to present the dryer with a sheet having higher solids content than before. The second project aims to reduce specific steam usage by optimising the operation of the dryer hood.

Risk based lifetime costs assessment of a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system design: Methodology and case study

Space heating accounts for a large portion of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) are a technology which can reduce carbon emissions from heating and cooling. GSHP system performance is however highly sensitive to deviation from design values of the actual annual energy extraction/rejection rates from/to the ground. In order to prevent failure and/or performance deterioration of GSHP systems it is possible to incorporate a safety factor in the design of the GSHP by over-sizing the ground heat exchanger (GHE). A methodology to evaluate the financial risk involved in over-sizing the GHE is proposed is this paper. A probability based approach is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of a hypothetical full-size GSHP system as compared to four alternative Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system configurations. The model of the GSHP system is developed in the TRNSYS energy simulation platform and calibrated with data from an actual hybrid GSHP system installed in the Department of Earth Science, University of Oxford, UK. Results of the analysis show that potential savings from a full-size GSHP system largely depend on projected HVAC system efficiencies and gas and electricity prices. Results of the risk analysis also suggest that a full-size GSHP with auxiliary back up is potentially the most economical system configuration. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The role of infrastructure in improving human settlements

This paper considers how the provision of integrated household-level infrastructure – particularly water and environmental sanitation (including water supply, sewerage, roads, storm drainage and solid waste management) –can play a leading role in improving the conditions in slum settlements. Around 700 socio-economic interviews were carried out in India and South Africa to investigate an innovative approach called slum networking, which sees the strong correlation between slum locations and drainage paths as an opportunity for improving the wider urban environment. This recognition allows resources to be mobilised locally, thereby removing the need for external aid funding. The evidence from the 700 families shows that communities perceive water and sanitation inputs to be their top priority and are willing to contribute to the costs. If slum upgrading is led with access to integrated water and environmental sanitation at household level with community contributions to the cost of infrastructure, then slum communities subsequently invest considerably greater sums in improved housing and education, with longer term contributions to poverty alleviation, improvements in health and literacy and an increase in disposable incomes.

Component level strategies for exploiting the lifespan of steel in products

Approximately 40% of annual demand for steel worldwide is used to replace products that have failed. With this percentage set to rise, extending the lifespan of steel in products presents a significant opportunity to reduce demand and thus decrease carbon dioxide emissions from steel production. This article presents a new, simplified framework with which to analyse product failure. When applied to the products that dominate steel use, this framework reveals that they are often replaced because a component/sub-assembly becomes degraded, inferior, unsuitable or worthless. In light of this, four products, which are representative of high steel content products in general, are analysed at the component level, determining steel mass and cost profiles over the lifespan of each product. The results show that the majority of the steel components are underexploited - still functioning when the product is discarded; in particular, the potential lifespan of the steel-rich structure is typically much greater than its actual lifespan. Twelve case studies, in which product or component life has been increased, are then presented. The resulting evidence is used to tailor life-extension strategies to each reason for product failure and to identify the economic motivations for implementing these strategies. The results suggest that a product template in which the long-lived structure accounts for a relatively high share of costs while short-lived components can be easily replaced (offering profit to the producer and enhanced utility to owners) encourages product life extension. © 2013 The Author.