Robust design optimization of gas turbine compression systems

Gas turbine compression systems are required to perform adequately over a range of operating conditions. Complexity has encouraged the conventional design process for compressors to focus initially on one operating point, usually the most commonor arduous, to draw up an outline design. Generally, only as this initial design is refined is its offdesign performance assessed in detail. Not only does this necessarily introduce a potentially costly and timeconsuming extra loop in the design process, but it also may result in a design whose offdesign behavior is suboptimal. Aversion of nonintrusive polynomial chaos was previously developed in which a set of orthonormal polynomials was generated to facilitate a rapid analysis of robustness in the presence of generic uncertainties with good accuracy. In this paper, this analysis method is incorporated in real time into the design process for the compression system of a three-shaft gas turbine aeroengine. This approach to robust optimization is shown to lead to designs that exhibit consistently improved system performance with reduced sensitivity to offdesign operation.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Adaptively modulated optical OFDM modems utilizing RSOAs as intensity modulators in IMDD SMF transmission systems.

Detailed investigations of the transmission performance of adaptively modulated optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexed (AMOOFDM) signals converted using reflective semiconductor optical amplifiers (RSOAs) are undertaken over intensity-modulation and direct-detection (IMDD) single-mode fiber (SMF) transmission systems for WDM-PONs. The theoretical RSOA model adopted for modulating the AMOOFDM signals is experimentally verified rigorously in the aforementioned transmission systems incorporating recently developed real-time end-to-end OOFDM transceivers. Extensive performance comparisons are also made between RSOA and SOA intensity modulators. Optimum RSOA operating conditions are identified, which are independent of RSOA rear-facet reflectivity and very similar to those corresponding to SOAs. Under the identified optimum operating conditions, the RSOA and SOA intensity modulators support the identical AMOOFDM transmission performance of 30Gb/s over 60km SMFs. Under low-cost optical component-enabled practical operating conditions, RSOA intensity modulators with rear-facet reflectivity values of >0.3 outperform considerably SOA intensity modulators in transmission performance, which decreases significantly with reducing RSOA rear-facet reflectivity and optical input power. In addition, results also show that use can be made of the RSOA/SOA intensity modulation-induced negative frequency chirp to improve the AMOOFDM transmission performance in IMDD SMF systems.

Real-time experimental demonstration of low-cost VCSEL intensity-modulated 11.25 Gb/s optical OFDM signal transmission over 25 km PON systems.

The feasibility of utilising low-cost, un-cooled vertical cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs) as intensity modulators in real-time optical OFDM (OOFDM) transceivers is experimentally explored, for the first time, in terms of achievable signal bit rates, physical mechanisms limiting the transceiver performance and performance robustness. End-to-end real-time transmission of 11.25 Gb/s 64-QAM-encoded OOFDM signals over simple intensity modulation and direct detection, 25 km SSMF PON systems is experimentally demonstrated with a power penalty of 0.5 dB. The low extinction ratio of the VCSEL intensity-modulated OOFDM signal is identified to be the dominant factor determining the maximum obtainable transmission performance. Experimental investigations indicate that, in addition to the enhanced transceiver performance, adaptive power loading can also significantly improve the system performance robustness to variations in VCSEL operating conditions. As a direct result, the aforementioned capacity versus reach performance is still retained over a wide VCSEL bias (driving) current (voltage) range of 4.5 mA to 9 mA (275 mVpp to 320 mVpp). This work is of great value as it demonstrates the possibility of future mass production of cost-effective OOFDM transceivers for PON applications.

Statistical gear health analysis which is robust to fluctuating loads and operating speeds

Condition-based maintenance is concerned with the collection and interpretation of data to support maintenance decisions. The non-intrusive nature of vibration data enables the monitoring of enclosed systems such as gearboxes. It remains a significant challenge to analyze vibration data that are generated under fluctuating operating conditions. This is especially true for situations where relatively little prior knowledge regarding the specific gearbox is available. It is therefore investigated how an adaptive time series model, which is based on Bayesian model selection, may be used to remove the non-fault related components in the structural response of a gear assembly to obtain a residual signal which is robust to fluctuating operating conditions. A statistical framework is subsequently proposed which may be used to interpret the structure of the residual signal in order to facilitate an intuitive understanding of the condition of the gear system. The proposed methodology is investigated on both simulated and experimental data from a single stage gearbox. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influencing factors of successful transitions towards product-service systems: A simulation approach

Product-Service Systems (PSS) are new business strategies moving and extending the product value towards its functional usage and related required services. From a theoretical point of view the PSS concept is known since a decade and many Authors reported reasonable possible success factors: higher profits over the entire life-cycle, diminished environmental burden, and localization of required services. Nevertheless the PSS promises remain quantitatively unproven relaying on a simple theory that involves a few constructs with some empirical grounding, but that is limited by weak conceptualization, few propositions, and/or rough underlying theoretical logic. A plausible interpretation to analyze the possible evolution of a PSS strategy could be considering it as a new business proposition competing on a traditional Product-Oriented (PO) market, assumed at its own equilibrium state at a given time. The analysis of the dynamics associated to a possible transition from a traditional PO to a PSS strategy allows investigating the main parameters and variables influencing an eventual successful adoption. This research is worthwhile because organizations undergoing fundamental PSS strategy are concerned about change and inertia key processes which, despite equilibrium theory and because of negative feedback loops, could undermine, economically, the return of their PSS proposition. In this paper Authors propose a qualitative System Dynamics (SD) approach by considering the PSS as a perturbation of an existing PO market featured by a set of known parameters. The proposed model incorporates several PSS factors able to influence the success of a PSS proposition under a set of given and justified assumptions, attempting to place this business strategy in a dynamic framework.

Low attenuation of GHz Rayleigh-like surface acoustic waves in ZnO/GaAs systems immersed in liquid helium

Low attenuation of Sezawa modes operating at GHz frequencies in ZnO/GaAs systems immersed in liquid helium has been observed. This unexpected behaviour for Rayleigh-like surface acoustic waves (SAWs) is explained in terms of the calculated depth profiles of their acoustic Poynting vectors. This analysis allows reproduction of the experimental dispersion of the attenuation coefficient. In addition, the high attenuation of the Rayleigh mode is compensated by the strengthening provided by the ZnO layer. The introduction of the ZnO film will enable the operation of SAW-driven single-photon sources in GaAs-based systems with the best thermal stability provided by the liquid helium bath. © 2013 American Institute of Physics.

N-best error simulation for training spoken dialogue systems

A recent trend in spoken dialogue research is the use of reinforcement learning to train dialogue systems in a simulated environment. Past researchers have shown that the types of errors that are simulated can have a significant effect on simulated dialogue performance. Since modern systems typically receive an N-best list of possible user utterances, it is important to be able to simulate a full N-best list of hypotheses. This paper presents a new method for simulating such errors based on logistic regression, as well as a new method for simulating the structure of N-best lists of semantics and their probabilities, based on the Dirichlet distribution. Off-line evaluations show that the new Dirichlet model results in a much closer match to the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) of the live data. Experiments also show that the logistic model gives confusions that are closer to the type of confusions observed in live situations. The hope is that these new error models will be able to improve the resulting performance of trained dialogue systems. © 2012 IEEE.

POMDP-based statistical spoken dialog systems: A review

Statistical dialog systems (SDSs) are motivated by the need for a data-driven framework that reduces the cost of laboriously handcrafting complex dialog managers and that provides robustness against the errors created by speech recognizers operating in noisy environments. By including an explicit Bayesian model of uncertainty and by optimizing the policy via a reward-driven process, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide such a framework. However, exact model representation and optimization is computationally intractable. Hence, the practical application of POMDP-based systems requires efficient algorithms and carefully constructed approximations. This review article provides an overview of the current state of the art in the development of POMDP-based spoken dialog systems. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

An experimental study of loss sources in a fan operating with continuous inlet stagnation pressure distortion

The viability of Boundary Layer Ingesting (BLI) engines for future aircraft propulsion is dependent on the ability to design robust, efficient engine fan systems for operation with continuously distorted inlet flow. A key step in this process is to develop an understanding of the specific mechanisms by which an inlet distortion affects the performance of a fan stage. In this paper, detailed full-annulus experimental measurements of the flow field within a low-speed fan stage operating with a continuous 60-degree inlet stagnation pressure distortion are presented. These results are used to describe the three-dimensional fluid mechanics governing the interaction between the fan and the distortion and to make a quantitative assessment of the impact on loss generation within the fan. A 5.3 percentage point reduction in stage total-to-total efficiency is observed as a result of the inlet distortion. The reduction in performance is shown to be dominated by increased loss generation in the rotor due to off-design incidence values at its leading edge, an effect which occurs throughout the annulus despite the localised nature of the inlet distortion. Increased loss generation in the stator row is also observed due to flow separations that are shown to be caused by whirl angle distortion at rotor exit. By addressing these losses, it should be possible to achieve improved efficiency in BLI fan systems. Copyright © 2012 by ASME.

An experimental study of loss sources in a fan operating with continuous inlet stagnation pressure distortion

The viability of boundary layer ingesting (BLI) engines for future aircraft propulsion is dependent on the ability to design robust, efficient engine fan systems for operation with continuously distorted inlet flow. A key step in this process is to develop an understanding of the specific mechanisms by which an inlet distortion affects the performance of a fan stage. In this paper, detailed full-annulus experimental measurements of the flow field within a low-speed fan stage operating with a continuous 60 deg inlet stagnation pressure distortion are presented. These results are used to describe the three-dimensional fluid mechanics governing the interaction between the fan and the distortion and to make a quantitative assessment of the impact on loss generation within the fan. A 5.3 percentage point reduction in stage total-to-total efficiency is observed as a result of the inlet distortion. The reduction in performance is shown to be dominated by increased loss generation in the rotor due to off-design incidence values at its leading edge, an effect that occurs throughout the annulus despite the localized nature of the inlet distortion. Increased loss in the stator row is also observed due to flow separations that are shown to be caused by whirl angle distortion at rotor exit. By addressing these losses, it should be possible to achieve improved efficiency in BLI fan systems. © 2013 by ASME.

Weighted least squares with expectation-maximization algorithm for burst detection in U.K. water distribution systems

Flow measurement data at the district meter area (DMA) level has the potential for burst detection in the water distribution systems. This work investigates using a polynomial function fitted to the historic flow measurements based on a weighted least-squares method for automatic burst detection in the U.K. water distribution networks. This approach, when used in conjunction with an expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm, can automatically select useful data from the historic flow measurements, which may contain normal and abnormal operating conditions in the distribution network, e.g., water burst. Thus, the model can estimate the normal water flow (nonburst condition), and hence the burst size on the water distribution system can be calculated from the difference between the measured flow and the estimated flow. The distinguishing feature of this method is that the burst detection is fully unsupervised, and the burst events that have occurred in the historic data do not affect the procedure and bias the burst detection algorithm. Experimental validation of the method has been carried out using a series of flushing events that simulate burst conditions to confirm that the simulated burst sizes are capable of being estimated correctly. This method was also applied to eight DMAs with known real burst events, and the results of burst detections are shown to relate to the water company's records of pipeline reparation work. © 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.