Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle

A sensitivity study has been conducted to assess the robustness of the conclusions presented in the MIT Fuel Cycle Study. The Once Through Cycle (OTC) is considered as the base-line case, while advanced technologies with fuel recycling characterize the alternative fuel cycles. The options include limited recycling in LWRs and full recycling in fast reactors and in high conversion LWRs. Fast reactor technologies studied include both oxide and metal fueled reactors. The analysis allowed optimization of the fast reactor conversion ratio with respect to desired fuel cycle performance characteristics. The following parameters were found to significantly affect the performance of recycling technologies and their penetration over time: Capacity Factors of the fuel cycle facilities, Spent Fuel Cooling Time, Thermal Reprocessing Introduction Date, and incore and Out-of-core TRU Inventory Requirements for recycling technology. An optimization scheme of the nuclear fuel cycle is proposed. Optimization criteria and metrics of interest for different stakeholders in the fuel cycle (economics, waste management, environmental impact, etc.) are utilized for two different optimization techniques (linear and stochastic). Preliminary results covering single and multi-variable and single and multi-objective optimization demonstrate the viability of the optimization scheme.