Linear gaussian computations for near-exact Bayesian Monte Carlo inference in skewed alpha-stable time series models

In this paper we study parameter estimation for time series with asymmetric α-stable innovations. The proposed methods use a Poisson sum series representation (PSSR) for the asymmetric α-stable noise to express the process in a conditionally Gaussian framework. That allows us to implement Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We further enhance the series representation by introducing a novel approximation of the series residual terms in which we are able to characterise the mean and variance of the approximation. Simulations illustrate the proposed framework applied to linear time series, estimating the model parameter values and model order P for an autoregressive (AR(P)) model driven by asymmetric α-stable innovations. © 2012 IEEE.

Bayesian model selection for time series using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present a stochastic simulation technique for subset selection in time series models, based on the use of indicator variables with the Gibbs sampler within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. As an example, the method is applied to the selection of subset linear AR models, in which only significant lags are included. Joint sampling of the indicators and parameters is found to speed convergence. We discuss the possibility of model mixing where the model is not well determined by the data, and the extension of the approach to include non-linear model terms.

Energy scattering in weakly non-linear systems.

The Chinese Tam-Tam exhibits non-linear behavior in its vibro-acoustic response. The frequency content of the response during free, unforced vibration smoothly changes, with energy being progressively smeared out over a greater bandwidth with time. This is used as a motivating case for the general study of the phenomenon of energy cascading through weak nonlinearity. Numerical models based upon the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam system of non-linearly coupled oscillators, modified with the addition of damping, have been developed. These were used to study the response of ensembles of systems with randomized natural frequencies. Results from simulations will be presented here. For un-damped systems, individual ensemble members exhibit cyclical energy exchange between linear modes, but the ensemble average displays a steady state. For the ensemble response of damped systems, lightly damped modes can exhibit an effective damping which is higher than predicated by linear theory. The presence of a non-linearity provides a path for energy flow to other modes, increasing the apparent damping spectrum at some frequencies and reducing it at others. The target of this work is a model revealing the governing parameters of a generic system of this type and leading to predictions of the ensemble response.

Multilinear function factorisation for time series feature extraction

This work applies a variety of multilinear function factorisation techniques to extract appropriate features or attributes from high dimensional multivariate time series for classification. Recently, a great deal of work has centred around designing time series classifiers using more and more complex feature extraction and machine learning schemes. This paper argues that complex learners and domain specific feature extraction schemes of this type are not necessarily needed for time series classification, as excellent classification results can be obtained by simply applying a number of existing matrix factorisation or linear projection techniques, which are simple and computationally inexpensive. We highlight this using a geometric separability measure and classification accuracies obtained though experiments on four different high dimensional multivariate time series datasets. © 2013 IEEE.

Reversible jump sampler for autoregressive time series

We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to address the problem of model order uncertainty in autoregressive (AR) time series within a Bayesian framework. Efficient model jumping is achieved by proposing model space moves from the full conditional density for the AR parameters, which is obtained analytically. This is compared with an alternative method, for which the moves are cheaper to compute, in which proposals are made only for new parameters in each move. Results are presented for both synthetic and audio time series.