The design of an agent for modelling supply chain network dynamics

A useful insight into managerial decision making can be found from simulation of business systems, but existing work on simulation of supply chain behaviour has largely considered non-competitive chains. Where competitive agents have been examined, they have generally had a simple structure and been used for fundamental examination of stability and equilibria rather than providing practical guidance to managers. In this paper, a new agent for the study of competitive supply chain network dynamics is proposed. The novel features of the agent include the ability to select between competing vendors, distribute orders preferentially among many customers, manage production and inventory, and determine price based on competitive behaviour. The structure of the agent is related to existing business models and sufficient details are provided to allow implementation. The agent is tested to demonstrate that it recreates the main results of the existing modelling and management literature on supply chain dynamics. A brief exploration of competitive dynamics is given to confirm that the proposed agent can respond to competition. The results demonstrate that overall profitability for a supply chain network is maximised when businesses operate collectively. It is possible for an individual business to achieve higher profits by adopting a more competitive stance, but the consequence of this is that the overall profitability of the network is reduced. The agent will be of use for a broad range of studies on the long-run effect of management decisions on their network of suppliers and customers.

Decentralised minimal-time consensus

This study considers the discrete-time dynamics of a network of agents that exchange information according to the nearest-neighbour protocol under which all agents are guaranteed to reach consensus asymptotically. We present a fully decentralised algorithm that allows any agent to compute the consensus value of the whole network in finite time using only the minimal number of successive values of its own history. We show that this minimal number of steps is related to a Jordan block decomposition of the network dynamics and present an algorithm to obtain the minimal number of steps in question by checking a rank condition on a Hankel matrix of the local observations. Furthermore, we prove that the minimal number of steps is related to other algebraic and graph theoretical notions that can be directly computed from the Laplacian matrix of the graph and from the underlying graph topology. © 2011 IEEE.

Decentralised minimum-time consensus

We consider the discrete-time dynamics of a network of agents that exchange information according to a nearest-neighbour protocol under which all agents are guaranteed to reach consensus asymptotically. We present a fully decentralised algorithm that allows any agent to compute the final consensus value of the whole network in finite time using the minimum number of successive values of its own state history. We show that the minimum number of steps is related to a Jordan block decomposition of the network dynamics, and present an algorithm to compute the final consensus value in the minimum number of steps by checking a rank condition of a Hankel matrix of local observations. Furthermore, we prove that the minimum number of steps is related to graph theoretical notions that can be directly computed from the Laplacian matrix of the graph and from the minimum external equitable partition. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal recall from bounded metaplastic synapses: predicting functional adaptations in hippocampal area CA3.

A venerable history of classical work on autoassociative memory has significantly shaped our understanding of several features of the hippocampus, and most prominently of its CA3 area, in relation to memory storage and retrieval. However, existing theories of hippocampal memory processing ignore a key biological constraint affecting memory storage in neural circuits: the bounded dynamical range of synapses. Recent treatments based on the notion of metaplasticity provide a powerful model for individual bounded synapses; however, their implications for the ability of the hippocampus to retrieve memories well and the dynamics of neurons associated with that retrieval are both unknown. Here, we develop a theoretical framework for memory storage and recall with bounded synapses. We formulate the recall of a previously stored pattern from a noisy recall cue and limited-capacity (and therefore lossy) synapses as a probabilistic inference problem, and derive neural dynamics that implement approximate inference algorithms to solve this problem efficiently. In particular, for binary synapses with metaplastic states, we demonstrate for the first time that memories can be efficiently read out with biologically plausible network dynamics that are completely constrained by the synaptic plasticity rule, and the statistics of the stored patterns and of the recall cue. Our theory organises into a coherent framework a wide range of existing data about the regulation of excitability, feedback inhibition, and network oscillations in area CA3, and makes novel and directly testable predictions that can guide future experiments.

Correlations strike back (again): The case of associative memory retrieval

It has long been recognised that statistical dependencies in neuronal activity need to be taken into account when decoding stimuli encoded in a neural population. Less studied, though equally pernicious, is the need to take account of dependencies between synaptic weights when decoding patterns previously encoded in an auto-associative memory. We show that activity-dependent learning generically produces such correlations, and failing to take them into account in the dynamics of memory retrieval leads to catastrophically poor recall. We derive optimal network dynamics for recall in the face of synaptic correlations caused by a range of synaptic plasticity rules. These dynamics involve well-studied circuit motifs, such as forms of feedback inhibition and experimentally observed dendritic nonlinearities. We therefore show how addressing the problem of synaptic correlations leads to a novel functional account of key biophysical features of the neural substrate.

Evaluating the impacts of iteration on PD processes by transforming task network models into System Dynamics models

Iteration is unavoidable in the design process and should be incorporated when planning and managing projects in order to minimize surprises and reduce schedule distortions. However, planning and managing iteration is challenging because the relationships between its causes and effects are complex. Most approaches which use mathematical models to analyze the impact of iteration on the design process focus on a relatively small number of its causes and effects. Therefore, insights derived from these analytical models may not be robust under a broader consideration of potential influencing factors. In this article, we synthesize an explanatory framework which describes the network of causes and effects of iteration identified from the literature, and introduce an analytic approach which combines a task network modeling approach with System Dynamics simulation. Our approach models the network of causes and effects of iteration alongside the process architecture which is required to analyze the impact of iteration on design process performance. We show how this allows managers to assess the impact of changes to process architecture and to management levers which influence iterative behavior, accounting for the fact that these changes can occur simultaneously and can accumulate in non-linear ways. We also discuss how the insights resulting from this analysis can be visualized for easier consumption by project participants not familiar with simulation methods. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

Modelling nonlinear vehicle dynamics with neural networks

The nonlinear modelling ability of neural networks has been widely recognised as an effective tool to identify and control dynamic systems, with applications including nonlinear vehicle dynamics which this paper focuses on using multi-layer perceptron networks. Existing neural network literature does not detail some of the factors which effect neural network nonlinear modelling ability. This paper investigates into and concludes on required network size, structure and initial weights, considering results for networks of converged weights. The paper also presents an online training method and an error measure representing the network's parallel modelling ability over a range of operating conditions. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Scalable robustness for consensus protocols with heterogeneous dynamics

It is shown in the paper how robustness can be guaranteed for consensus protocols with heterogeneous dynamics in a scalable and decentralized way i.e. by each agent satisfying a test that does not require knowledge of the entire network. Random graph examples illustrate that the proposed certificates are not conservative for classes of large scale networks, despite the heterogeneity of the dynamics, which is a distinctive feature of this work. The conditions hold for symmetric protocols and more conservative stability conditions are given for general nonsymmetric interconnections. Nonlinear extensions in an IQC framework are finally discussed. Copyright © 2005 IFAC.

UK-NEES - Distributed hybrid testing between Bristol, Cambridge and Oxford Universities: Connecting structural dynamics labs to a geotechnical centrifuge

Distributed hybrid testing is a natural extension to and builds upon the local hybrid testing technique. Taking advantage of the hybrid nature of the test, it allows a sharing of resources and expertise between researchers from different disciplines by connecting multiple geographically distributed sites for joint testing. As part of the UK-NEES project, a successful series of three-site distributed hybrid tests have been carried out between Bristol, Cambridge and Oxford Universities. The first known multi-site distributed hybrid tests in the UK, they connected via a dedicated fibre network, using custom software, the geotechnical centrifuge at Cambridge to structural components at Bristol and Oxford. These experiments were to prove the connection and useful insights were gained into the issues involved with this distributed environment. A wider aim is towards providing a flexible testing framework to facilitate multi-disciplinary experiments such as the accurate investigation of the influence of foundations on structural systems under seismic and other loading. Time scaling incompatibilities mean true seismic soil structure interaction using a centrifuge at g is not possible, though it is clear that distributed centrifuge testing can be valuable in other problems. Development is continuing to overcome the issues encountered, in order to improve future distributed tests in the UK and beyond.