Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Conduction bottleneck in silicon nanochain single electron transistors operating at room temperature

Single electron transistors are fabricated on single Si nanochains, synthesised by thermal evaporation of SiO solid sources. The nanochains consist of one-dimensional arrays of ~10nm Si nanocrystals, separated by SiO 2 regions. At 300 K, strong Coulomb staircases are seen in the drain-source current-voltage (I ds-V ds) characteristics, and single-electron oscillations are seen in the drain-source current-gate voltage (I ds-V ds) characteristics. From 300-20 K, a large increase in the Coulomb blockade region is observed. The characteristics are explained using singleelectron Monte Carlo simulation, where an inhomogeneous multiple tunnel junction represents a nanochain. Any reduction in capacitance at a nanocrystal well within the nanochain creates a conduction " bottleneck", suppressing current at low voltage and improving the Coulomb staircase. The single-electron charging energy at such an island can be very high, ~20k BT at 300 K. © 2012 The Japan Society of Applied Physics.

Boundary effects on the vibration statistics of a random plate

This paper considers the estimation of statistics of displacement of a vibrating rectangular plate with random wave scatterers. The influence of uncertainty is investigated using point impedance theory. Coherent boundary effects are seen, which decrease when the number of scatterers increases. The boundary effect is investigated using images and the first side and corner reflections are found to be a minimum requirement to estimate the spatial correlation. Statistics for point driven response are investigated under the assumption that the statistics of the natural frequencies follow those of the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE). The estimates are compared with Monte Carlo simulation results, and they show good agreement. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Shock transmission in a coupled beam system

This paper investigates the circumstances under which high peak acceleration can occur in the internal parts of a system when subjected to impulsive driving on the outside. Motivating examples include the design of packaging for transportation of fragile items. The system is modelled in an idealised form using two beams coupled with point connections. A Rayleigh-Ritz model of such coupled beams was validated against measurements on a particular beam system, then the model was used to explore the acceleration response to impulsive driving in the time, frequency and spatial domains. This study is restricted to linear vibration response and additional mechanisms for high internal acceleration due to nonlinear effects such as internal impacts are not considered. Using Monte Carlo simulation in which the indirectly driven beam was perturbed by randomly placed point masses a wide range of system behaviour was explored. This facilitates identification of vulnerable configurations that can lead to high internal acceleration. The results from the study indicate the possibility of curve veering influencing the peak acceleration amplification. The possibility of veering within an ensemble was found to be dependent on the relative coupling strength of the modes. Understanding of the mechanism may help to avoid vulnerable cases, either by design or by preparatory vibration testing. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Active control of high frequency vibration in uncertain structures

The active suppression of structural vibration is normally achieved by either feedforward or feedback control. In the absence of a suitable reference signal feedforward control cannot be employed and feedback control is the only viable approach. Conventional feedback control algorithms (e.g. LQR and LQG) are designed on the basis of a mathematical model of the system and ideally the performance of the system should be robust against uncertainties in this model. The aim of this paper is to numerically investigate the robustness of LQR and LQG algorithms by designing the controller for a nominal system, and then assessing (via Monte Carlo simulation) the effects of uncertainties in the system. The ultimate concern is with the control of high frequency vibrations, where the short wavelength of the structural deformation induces a high sensitivity to imperfection. It is found that standard algorithms such as LQR and LQG are generally unfeasible for this case. This leads to a consideration of design strategies for the robust active control of high frequency vibrations. The system chosen for the numerical simulation concerns two coupled plates, which are randomized by the addition of point masses at random locations.