The Bayesian view of extreme events

The Bayesian perspective of designing for the consequences of hazard is discussed. Structural engineers should be educated in Bayesian theory and its underlying philosophy, and about the centrality to the prediction problem of the predictive distribution. The primary contribution that Bayesianism can make to the debate about extreme possibilities is its clarification of the language of and thinking about risk. Frequentist methodologies are the wrong approach to the decisions that engineers need to make, decisions that involve assessments of abstract future possibilities based on incomplete and abstract information.

The steel scrap age.

Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.

Understanding and navigating industrial emergence

Industrial emergence is a broad and complex domain, with relevant perspectives ranging in scale from the individual entrepreneur and firm with the business decisions and actions they make to the policies of nations and global patterns of industrialisation. The research described in this article has adopted a holistic approach, based on structured mapping methods, in an attempt to depict and understand the dynamics and patterns of industrial emergence across a broad spectrum from early scientific discovery to large-scale industrialisation. The breadth of scope and application has enabled a framework and set of four tools to be developed that have wide applicability. The utility of the approaches has been demonstrated through case studies and trials in a diverse range of industrial contexts. The adoption of such a broad scope also presents substantial challenges and limitations, with these providing an opportunity for further research. © IMechE 2013.

Choosing to make an effort: the role of striatum in signaling physical effort of a chosen action.

The possibility that we will have to invest effort influences our future choice behavior. Indeed deciding whether an action is actually worth taking is a key element in the expression of human apathy or inertia. There is a well developed literature on brain activity related to the anticipation of effort, but how effort affects actual choice is less well understood. Furthermore, prior work is largely restricted to mental as opposed to physical effort or has confounded temporal with effortful costs. Here we investigated choice behavior and brain activity, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, in a study where healthy participants are required to make decisions between effortful gripping, where the factors of force (high and low) and reward (high and low) were varied, and a choice of merely holding a grip device for minimal monetary reward. Behaviorally, we show that force level influences the likelihood of choosing an effortful grip. We observed greater activity in the putamen when participants opt to grip an option with low effort compared with when they opt to grip an option with high effort. The results suggest that, over and above a nonspecific role in movement anticipation and salience, the putamen plays a crucial role in computations for choice that involves effort costs.

Electron-beam patterning of polymer electrolyte films to make multiple nanoscale gates for nanowire transistors

We report an electron-beam based method for the nanoscale patterning of the poly(ethylene oxide)/LiClO4 polymer electrolyte. We use the patterned polymer electrolyte as a high capacitance gate dielectric in single nanowire transistors and obtain subthreshold swings comparable to conventional metal/oxide wrap-gated nanowire transistors. Patterning eliminates gate/contact overlap, which reduces parasitic effects and enables multiple, independently controllable gates. The method's simplicity broadens the scope for using polymer electrolyte gating in studies of nanowires and other nanoscale devices. © 2013 American Chemical Society.