Towards measuring the impact of information availability on maintenance decisions

Decisions concerning maintenance have become increasingly important and requires a diverse set of information as systems become more complex. The availability of information has an impact on the effectiveness of these decisions, and thus on the performance of the asset. This paper highlights the importance of quantifying the value of information on maintenance decisions and asset performance. In particular, we emphasise the need to focus on measuring value as opposed to cost of maintenance, which is the current practice. In this direction, we propose a measure - Value of Ownership (VOO) - to assess the value of information and performance of maintenance decisions throughout an assets lifecycle. © 2009 IFAC.

Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

The design of an agent for modelling supply chain network dynamics

A useful insight into managerial decision making can be found from simulation of business systems, but existing work on simulation of supply chain behaviour has largely considered non-competitive chains. Where competitive agents have been examined, they have generally had a simple structure and been used for fundamental examination of stability and equilibria rather than providing practical guidance to managers. In this paper, a new agent for the study of competitive supply chain network dynamics is proposed. The novel features of the agent include the ability to select between competing vendors, distribute orders preferentially among many customers, manage production and inventory, and determine price based on competitive behaviour. The structure of the agent is related to existing business models and sufficient details are provided to allow implementation. The agent is tested to demonstrate that it recreates the main results of the existing modelling and management literature on supply chain dynamics. A brief exploration of competitive dynamics is given to confirm that the proposed agent can respond to competition. The results demonstrate that overall profitability for a supply chain network is maximised when businesses operate collectively. It is possible for an individual business to achieve higher profits by adopting a more competitive stance, but the consequence of this is that the overall profitability of the network is reduced. The agent will be of use for a broad range of studies on the long-run effect of management decisions on their network of suppliers and customers.

H∞ design procedure using robust stabilization of normalized coprime factors

A two-stage H∞-based design procedure is described which uses a normalized coprime factor approach to robust stabilization of linear systems. A loop-shaping procedure is incroporated to allow the specification of performance characteristics. Theoretical justification of this technique and an outline of the design methodology are given.

On the applicability of the lognormal distribution in random dynamical systems

This paper is concerned with the probability density function of the energy of a random dynamical system subjected to harmonic excitation. It is shown that if the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the system conform to the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, then under common types of loading the distribution of the energy of the response is approximately lognormal, providing the modal overlap factor is high (typically greater than two). In contrast, it is shown that the response of a system with Poisson natural frequencies is not approximately lognormal. Numerical simulations are conducted on a plate system to validate the theoretical findings and good agreement is obtained. Simulations are also conducted on a system made from two plates connected with rotational springs to demonstrate that the theoretical findings can be extended to a built-up system. The work provides a theoretical justification of the commonly used empirical practice of assuming that the energy response of a random system is lognormal.

Classification and choice in product design

Life is full of difficult choices. Everyone has their own way of dealing with these, some effective, some not. The problem is particularly acute in engineering design because of the vast amount of information designers have to process. This paper deals with a subset of this set of problems: the subset of selecting materials and processes, and their links to the design of products. Even these, though, present many of the generic problems of choice, and the challenges in creating tools to assist the designer in making them. The key elements are those of classification, of indexing, of reaching decisions using incomplete data in many different formats, and of devising effective strategies for selection. This final element - that of selection strategies - poses particular challenges. Product design, as an example, is an intricate blend of the technical and (for want of a better word) the aesthetic. To meet these needs, a tool that allows selection by analysis, by analogy, by association and simply by 'browsing' is necessary. An example of such a tool, its successes and remaining challenges, will be described.