Rebuilding the limit order book: Sequential Bayesian inference on hidden states

The limit order book of an exchange represents an information store of market participants' future aims and for many traders the information held in this store is of interest. However, information loss occurs between orders being entered into the exchange and limit order book data being sent out. We present an online algorithm which carries out Bayesian inference to replace information lost at the level of the exchange server and apply our proof of concept algorithm to real historical data from some of the world's most liquid futures contracts as traded on CME GLOBEX, EUREX and NYSE Liffe exchanges. © 2013 © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Enduring Borderlands: the Marches of Ireland and Wales in the Early Modern Period

This joint chapter explores similarities and differences between two borderlands within the early modern ‘British’ state – the marches of Ireland and Wales. In some respects, the two regions were very different, most fundamentally because the Irish march remained militarised throughout the Tudor period, while Welsh society was markedly more peaceful. However, there was also much in common. In the later middle ages both marches were frontiers between the expanding Anglo-Normans and native Celtic society. The notion that the march separated ‘civility’ from ‘savagery’ was an enduring one: despite the efforts of the Tudors to impose centralisation and uniformity throughout its territories, there remained institutions, structures of power, and mentalities which ensured that both sets of marches were still in existence by the end of the 16th century. This chapter explores the reasons for the endurance of these borderlands, and indicates how political reforms of the 16th century caused the perception – and sometimes the very location – of the marches to alter.