Air quality and public health impacts of UK airports. Part I: Emissions

The potential adverse human health and climate impacts of emissions from UK airports have become a significant political issue, yet the emissions, air quality impacts and health impacts attributable to UK airports remain largely unstudied. We produce an inventory of UK airport emissions - including aircraft landing and takeoff (LTO) operations and airside support equipment - with uncertainties quantified. The airports studied account for more than 95% of UK air passengers in 2005. We estimate that in 2005, UK airports emitted 10.2 Gg [-23 to +29%] of NOx, 0.73 Gg [-29 to +32%] of SO2, 11.7 Gg [-42 to +77%] of CO, 1.8 Gg [-59 to +155%] of HC, 2.4 Tg [-13 to +12%] of CO2, and 0.31 Gg [-36 to +45%] of PM2.5. This translates to 2.5 Tg [-12 to +12%] CO2-eq using Global Warming Potentials for a 100-year time horizon. Uncertainty estimates were based on analysis of data from aircraft emissions measurement campaigns and analyses of aircraft operations.The First-Order Approximation (FOA3) - currently the standard approach used to estimate particulate matter emissions from aircraft - is compared to measurements and it is shown that there are discrepancies greater than an order of magnitude for 40% of cases for both organic carbon and black carbon emissions indices. Modified methods to approximate organic carbon emissions, arising from incomplete combustion and lubrication oil, and black carbon are proposed. These alterations lead to factor 8 and a 44% increase in the annual emissions estimates of black and organic carbon particulate matter, respectively, leading to a factor 3.4 increase in total PM2.5 emissions compared to the current FOA3 methodology. Our estimates of emissions are used in Part II to quantify the air quality and health impacts of UK airports, to assess mitigation options, and to estimate the impacts of a potential London airport expansion. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

The role of human orbitofrontal cortex in value comparison for incommensurable objects.

The human orbitofrontal cortex is strongly implicated in appetitive valuation. Whether its role extends to support comparative valuation necessary to explain probabilistic choice patterns for incommensurable goods is unknown. Using a binary choice paradigm, we derived the subjective values of different bundles of goods, under conditions of both gain and loss. We demonstrate that orbitofrontal activation reflects the difference in subjective value between available options, an effect evident across valuation for both gains and losses. In contrast, activation in dorsal striatum and supplementary motor areas reflects subjects' choice probabilities. These findings indicate that orbitofrontal cortex plays a pivotal role in valuation for incommensurable goods, a critical component process in human decision making.

Anchors, scales and the relative coding of value in the brain.

People are alarmingly susceptible to manipulations that change both their expectations and experience of the value of goods. Recent studies in behavioral economics suggest such variability reflects more than mere caprice. People commonly judge options and prices in relative terms, rather than absolutely, and display strong sensitivity to exemplar and price anchors. We propose that these findings elucidate important principles about reward processing in the brain. In particular, relative valuation may be a natural consequence of adaptive coding of neuronal firing to optimise sensitivity across large ranges of value. Furthermore, the initial apparent arbitrariness of value may reflect the brains' attempts to optimally integrate diverse sources of value-relevant information in the face of perceived uncertainty. Recent findings in neuroscience support both accounts, and implicate regions in the orbitofrontal cortex, striatum, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex in the construction of value.

Comparison among MCNP-based depletion codes applied to burnup calculations of pebble-bed HTR lattices

The double-heterogeneity characterising pebble-bed high temperature reactors (HTRs) makes Monte Carlo based calculation tools the most suitable for detailed core analyses. These codes can be successfully used to predict the isotopic evolution during irradiation of the fuel of this kind of cores. At the moment, there are many computational systems based on MCNP that are available for performing depletion calculation. All these systems use MCNP to supply problem dependent fluxes and/or microscopic cross sections to the depletion module. This latter then calculates the isotopic evolution of the fuel resolving Bateman's equations. In this paper, a comparative analysis of three different MCNP-based depletion codes is performed: Montburns2.0, MCNPX2.6.0 and BGCore. Monteburns code can be considered as the reference code for HTR calculations, since it has been already verified during HTR-N and HTR-N1 EU project. All calculations have been performed on a reference model representing an infinite lattice of thorium-plutonium fuelled pebbles. The evolution of k-inf as a function of burnup has been compared, as well as the inventory of the important actinides. The k-inf comparison among the codes shows a good agreement during the entire burnup history with the maximum difference lower than 1%. The actinide inventory prediction agrees well. However significant discrepancy in Am and Cm concentrations calculated by MCNPX as compared to those of Monteburns and BGCore has been observed. This is mainly due to different Am-241 (n,γ) branching ratio utilized by the codes. The important advantage of BGCore is its significantly lower execution time required to perform considered depletion calculations. While providing reasonably accurate results BGCore runs depletion problem about two times faster than Monteburns and two to five times faster than MCNPX. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050.

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

Industrial ecology at factory level: A prototype methodology

The concept of sustainable manufacturing is a form of pollution prevention that integrates environmental considerations in the production of goods while focusing on efficient resource use. Taking the industrial ecology perspective, this efficiency comes from improved resource flow management. The assessment of material, energy and waste resource flows, therefore, offers a route to viewing and analysing a manufacturing system as an ecosystem using industrial ecology biological analogy and can, in turn, support the identification of improvement opportunities in the material, energy and waste flows. This application of industrial ecology at factory level is absent from the literature. This article provides a prototype methodology to apply the concepts of industrial ecology using material, energy and waste process flows to address this gap in the literature. Various modelling techniques were reviewed and candidates selected to test the prototype methodology in an industrial case. The application of the prototype methodology showed the possibility of using the material, energy and waste resource flows through the factory to link manufacturing operations and supporting facilities, and to identify potential improvements in resource use. The outcomes of the work provide a basis to build the specifications for a modelling tool that can support those analysing their manufacturing system to improve their environmental performance and move towards sustainable manufacturing. © IMechE 2012.