A comparison of methods for assessing the lifetime reliability of a moored FPSO

Current design codes for floating offshore structures are based on measures of short-term reliability. That is, a design storm is selected via an extreme value analysis of the environmental conditions and the reliability of the vessel in that design storm is computed. Although this approach yields valuable information on the vessel motions, it does not produce a statistically rigorous assessment of the lifetime probability of failure. An alternative approach is to perform a long-term reliability analysis in which consideration is taken of all sea states potentially encountered by the vessel during the design life. Although permitted as a design approach in current design codes, the associated computational expense generally prevents its use in practice. A new efficient approach to long-term reliability analysis is presented here, the results of which are compared with a traditional short-term analysis for the surge motion of a representative moored FPSO in head seas. This serves to illustrate the failure probabilities actually embedded within current design code methods, and the way in which design methods might be adapted to achieve a specified target safety level.

A comparison of methods for the coupled analysis of floating structures

The dynamic analysis of a deepwater floating platform and the associated mooring/riser system should ideally be fully coupled to ensure a reliable response prediction. It is generally held that a time domain analysis is the only means of capturing the various coupling and nonlinear effects accurately. However, in recent work it has been found that for an ultra-deepwater floating system (2000m water depth), the highly efficient frequency domain approach can provide highly accurate response predictions. One reason for this is the accuracy of the drag linearization procedure over both first and second order motions, another reason is the minimal geometric nonlinearity displayed by the mooring lines in deepwater. In this paper, the aim is to develop an efficient analysis method for intermediate water depths, where both mooring/vessel coupling and geometric nonlinearity are of importance. It is found that the standard frequency domain approach is not so accurate for this case and two alternative methods are investigated. In the first, an enhanced frequency domain approach is adopted, in which line nonlinearities are linearized in a systematic way. In the second, a hybrid approach is adopted in which the low frequency motion is solved in the time domain while the high frequency motion is solved in the frequency domain; the two analyses are coupled by the fact that (i) the low frequency motion affects the mooring line geometry for the high frequency motion, and (ii) the high frequency motion affects the drag forces which damp the low frequency motion. The accuracy and efficiency of each of the methods are systematically compared. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

A comparison of methods currently used in inclusive design.

Inclusive design has unique challenges because it aims to improve usability for a wide range of users. This typically includes people with lower levels of ability, as well as mainstream users. This paper examines the effectiveness of two methods that are used in inclusive design: user trials and exclusion calculations (an inclusive design inspection method). A study examined three autoinjectors using both methods (n=30 for the user trials). The usability issues identified by each method are compared and the effectiveness of the methods is discussed. The study found that each method identified different kinds of issues, all of which are important for inclusive design. We therefore conclude that a combination of methods should be used in inclusive design rather than relying on a single method. Recommendations are also given for how the individual methods can be used more effectively in this context.

Design-phase-specific selection of user research methods

For increasing the usability of a medical device the usability engineering standards IEC 60601-1-6 and IEC 62366 suggest incorporating user information in the design and development process. However, practice shows that integrating user information and the related investigation of users, called user research, is difficult in the field of medical devices. In particular, identifying the most appropriate user research methods is a difficult process. This difficulty results from the complexity of the medical device industry, especially with respect to regulations and standards, the characteristics of this market and the broad range of potential user research methods available from various research disciplines. Against this background, this study aimed at guiding designers and engineers in selecting effective user research methods according to their stage in the design process. Two approaches are described which reduce the complexity of method selection by summarizing the high number of methods into homogenous method classes. These approaches are closely connected to the medical device industry characteristic design phases and therefore provide the possibility of selecting design-phase- specific user research methods. In the first approach potential user research methods are classified after their characteristics in the design process. The second approach suggests a method summarization according to their similarity in the data collection techniques and provides an additional linkage to design phase characteristics. Both approaches have been tested in practice and the results show that both approaches facilitate user research method selection. © 2009 Springer-Verlag.

Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods

Background: There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. Aim. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. Methods. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). Results: The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. Conclusions: A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection. © 2011 Jun et al.

A robust Bayesian two-sample test for detecting intervals of differential gene expression in microarray time series.

Understanding the regulatory mechanisms that are responsible for an organism's response to environmental change is an important issue in molecular biology. A first and important step towards this goal is to detect genes whose expression levels are affected by altered external conditions. A range of methods to test for differential gene expression, both in static as well as in time-course experiments, have been proposed. While these tests answer the question whether a gene is differentially expressed, they do not explicitly address the question when a gene is differentially expressed, although this information may provide insights into the course and causal structure of regulatory programs. In this article, we propose a two-sample test for identifying intervals of differential gene expression in microarray time series. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression, can deal with arbitrary numbers of replicates, and is robust with respect to outliers. We apply our algorithm to study the response of Arabidopsis thaliana genes to an infection by a fungal pathogen using a microarray time series dataset covering 30,336 gene probes at 24 observed time points. In classification experiments, our test compares favorably with existing methods and provides additional insights into time-dependent differential expression.

Proceedings of an international workshop on the value of computer-based engineering tools, held in Cambridge in April 1997

There is increasing adoption of computer-based tools to support the product development process. Tolls include computer-aided design, computer-aided manufacture, systems engineering and product data management systems. The fact that companies choose to invest in tools might be regarded as evidence that tools, in aggregate, are perceived to possess business value through their application to engineering activities. Yet the ways in which value accrues from tool technology are poorly understood.

This report records the proceedings of an international workshop during which some novel approaches to improving our understanding of this problem of tool valuation were presented and debated. The value of methods and processes were also discussed. The workshop brought together British, Dutch, German and Italian researchers. The presenters included speakers from industry and academia (the University of Cambridge, the University of Magdeburg and the Politechnico de Torino)

The work presented showed great variety. Research methods include case studies, questionnaires, statistical analysis, semi-structured interviews, deduction, inductive reasoning, the recording of anecdotes and analogies. The presentations drew on financial investment theory, the industrial experience of workshop participants, discussions with students developing tools, modern economic theories and speculation on the effects of company capabilities.