Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

The double dance of agency: a socio-theoretic account of how machines and humans interact

The nature of the relationship between information technology (IT) and organizations has been a long-standing debate in the Information Systems literature. Does IT shape organizations, or do people in organisations control how IT is used? To formulate the question a little differently: does agency (the capacity to make a difference) lie predominantly with machines (computer systems) or humans (organisational actors)? Many proposals for a middle way between the extremes of technological and social determinism have been put advanced; in recent years researchers oriented towards social theories have focused on structuration theory and (lately) actor network theory. These two theories, however, adopt different and incompatible views of agency. Thus, structuration theory sees agency as exclusively a property of humans, whereas the principle of general symmetry in actor network theory implies that machines may also be agents. Drawing on critiques of both structuration theory and actor network theory, this paper develops a theoretical account of the interaction between human and machine agency: the double dance of agency. The account seeks to contribute to theorisation of the relationship between technology and organisation by recognizing both the different character of human and machine agency, and the emergent properties of their interplay.