The statistics of the second order response of an FPSO in spreading seas

An expression for the probability density function of the second order response of a general FPSO in spreading seas is derived by using the Kac-Siegert approach. Various approximations of the second order force transfer functions are investigated for a ship-shaped FPSO. It is found that, when expressed in non-dimensional form, the probability density function of the response is not particularly sensitive to wave spreading, although the mean squared response and the resulting dimensional extreme values can be sensitive. The analysis is then applied to a Sevan FPSO, which is a large cylindrical buoy-like structure. The second order force transfer functions are derived by using an efficient semi-analytical hydrodynamic approach, and these are then employed to yield the extreme response. However, a significant effect of wave spreading on the statistics for a Sevan FPSO is found even in non-dimensional form. It implies that the exact statistics of a general ship-shaped FPSO may be sensitive to the wave direction, which needs to be verified in future work. It is also pointed out that the Newman's approximation regarding the frequency dependency of force transfer function is acceptable even for the spreading seas. An improvement on the results may be attained when considering the angular dependency exactly. Copyright © 2009 by ASME.

Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar.

It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.