A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE SENSITIVITY OF 2D COMPRESSOR INCIDENCE RANGE TO IN-SERVICE GEOMETRIC VARIATION

The loss mechanisms which control 2D incidence range are discussed with an emphasis on determining which real in-service geometric variations will have the largest impact. For the majority of engine compressor blades (Minlet>0.55) both the negative and positive incidence limits are controlled by supersonic patches. It is shown that these patches are highly sensitive to the geometric variations close to, and around the leading edge. The variations used in this study were measured from newly manufactured as well as ex-service blades. Over most the high pressure compressor considered, it was shown that manufacture variations dominated. The first part of the paper shows that, despite large geometric variations (~10% of leading edge thickness), the incidence range responded in a linear way. The result of this is that the geometric variations have little effect on the mean incidence range of a row of blades. In the second part of the paper a region of the design space is identified where non-linear behavior can result in a 10% reduction in positive incidence range. The mechanism for this is reported and design guidelines for its avoidance offered. In the final part of the paper, the linear behavior at negative incidence and the transonic nature of the flow is exploited to design a robust asymmetric leading edge with a 5% increase in incidence range.