State estimation schemes for independent component coupled hidden Markov models

Conventional Hidden Markov models generally consist of a Markov chain observed through a linear map corrupted by additive noise. This general class of model has enjoyed a huge and diverse range of applications, for example, speech processing, biomedical signal processing and more recently quantitative finance. However, a lesser known extension of this general class of model is the so-called Factorial Hidden Markov Model (FHMM). FHMMs also have diverse applications, notably in machine learning, artificial intelligence and speech recognition [13, 17]. FHMMs extend the usual class of HMMs, by supposing the partially observed state process is a finite collection of distinct Markov chains, either statistically independent or dependent. There is also considerable current activity in applying collections of partially observed Markov chains to complex action recognition problems, see, for example, [6]. In this article we consider the Maximum Likelihood (ML) parameter estimation problem for FHMMs. Much of the extant literature concerning this problem presents parameter estimation schemes based on full data log-likelihood EM algorithms. This approach can be slow to converge and often imposes heavy demands on computer memory. The latter point is particularly relevant for the class of FHMMs where state space dimensions are relatively large. The contribution in this article is to develop new recursive formulae for a filter-based EM algorithm that can be implemented online. Our new formulae are equivalent ML estimators, however, these formulae are purely recursive and so, significantly reduce numerical complexity and memory requirements. A computer simulation is included to demonstrate the performance of our results. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Temporally adaptive estimation of logistic classifiers on data streams

Modern technology has allowed real-time data collection in a variety of domains, ranging from environmental monitoring to healthcare. Consequently, there is a growing need for algorithms capable of performing inferential tasks in an online manner, continuously revising their estimates to reflect the current status of the underlying process. In particular, we are interested in constructing online and temporally adaptive classifiers capable of handling the possibly drifting decision boundaries arising in streaming environments. We first make a quadratic approximation to the log-likelihood that yields a recursive algorithm for fitting logistic regression online. We then suggest a novel way of equipping this framework with self-tuning forgetting factors. The resulting scheme is capable of tracking changes in the underlying probability distribution, adapting the decision boundary appropriately and hence maintaining high classification accuracy in dynamic or unstable environments. We demonstrate the scheme's effectiveness in both real and simulated streaming environments. © Springer-Verlag 2009.

Fixed-lag blind equalization and sequence estimation in digital communications systems using sequential importance sampling

We present methods for fixed-lag smoothing using Sequential Importance sampling (SIS) on a discrete non-linear, non-Gaussian state space system with unknown parameters. Our particular application is in the field of digital communication systems. Each input data point is taken from a finite set of symbols. We represent transmission media as a fixed filter with a finite impulse response (FIR), hence a discrete state-space system is formed. Conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques such as the Gibbs sampler are unsuitable for this task because they can only perform processing on a batch of data. Data arrives sequentially, so it would seem sensible to process it in this way. In addition, many communication systems are interactive, so there is a maximum level of latency that can be tolerated before a symbol is decoded. We will demonstrate this method by simulation and compare its performance to existing techniques.

Monte Carlo filtering and smoothing with application to time-varying spectral estimation

We develop methods for performing filtering and smoothing in non-linear non-Gaussian dynamical models. The methods rely on a particle cloud representation of the filtering distribution which evolves through time using importance sampling and resampling ideas. In particular, novel techniques are presented for generation of random realisations from the joint smoothing distribution and for MAP estimation of the state sequence. Realisations of the smoothing distribution are generated in a forward-backward procedure, while the MAP estimation procedure can be performed in a single forward pass of the Viterbi algorithm applied to a discretised version of the state space. An application to spectral estimation for time-varying autoregressions is described.

Hydrogen content estimation of hydrogenated amorphous carbon by visible Raman spectroscopy

In the present study, we report the hydrogen content estimation of the hydrogenated amorphous carbon (a-C:H) films using visible Raman spectroscopy in a fast and nondestructive way. Hydrogenated diamondlike carbon films were deposited by the plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition, plasma beam source, and integrated distributed electron cyclotron resonance techniques. Methane and acetylene were used as source gases resulting in different hydrogen content and sp2/sp3 fraction. Ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) spectroscopic ellipsometry (1.5-5 eV) as well as UV-Vis spectroscopy were provided with the optical band gap (Tauc gap). The sp2/sp3 fraction and the hydrogen content were independently estimated by electron energy loss spectroscopy and elastic recoil detection analysis-Rutherford back scattering, respectively. The Raman spectra that were acquired in the visible region using the 488 nm line shows the superposition of Raman features on a photoluminescence (PL) background. The direct relationship of the sp2 content and the optical band gap has been confirmed. The difference in the PL background for samples of the same optical band gap (sp2 content) and different hydrogen content was demonstrated and an empirical relationship between the visible Raman spectra PL background slope and the corresponding hydrogen content was extracted. © 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Parameter Estimation for Hidden Markov Models with Intractable Likelihoods

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for analysing data for complex models where the likelihood function is intractable. It involves using simulation from the model to approximate the likelihood, with this approximate likelihood then being used to construct an approximate posterior. In this paper, we consider methods that estimate the parameters by maximizing the approximate likelihood used in ABC. We give a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimator. In particular, we derive results analogous to those of consistency and asymptotic normality for standard maximum likelihood estimation. We also discuss how sequential Monte Carlo methods provide a natural method for implementing our likelihood-based ABC procedures.