A probabilistic energy model for non-domestic building sectors applied to analysis of school buildings in greater London

The diversity of non-domestic buildings at urban scale poses a number of difficulties to develop models for large scale analysis of the stock. This research proposes a probabilistic, engineering-based, bottom-up model to address these issues. In a recent study we classified London's non-domestic buildings based on the service they provide, such as offices, retail premise, and schools, and proposed the creation of one probabilistic representational model per building type. This paper investigates techniques for the development of such models. The representational model is a statistical surrogate of a dynamic energy simulation (ES) model. We first identify the main parameters affecting energy consumption in a particular building sector/type by using sampling-based global sensitivity analysis methods, and then generate statistical surrogate models of the dynamic ES model within the dominant model parameters. Given a sample of actual energy consumption for that sector, we use the surrogate model to infer the distribution of model parameters by inverse analysis. The inferred distributions of input parameters are able to quantify the relative benefits of alternative energy saving measures on an entire building sector with requisite quantification of uncertainties. Secondary school buildings are used for illustrating the application of this probabilistic method. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of a time-delayed thermo-acoustic system via an adjoint-based approach

We apply adjoint-based sensitivity analysis to a time-delayed thermo-acoustic system: a Rijke tube containing a hot wire. We calculate how the growth rate and frequency of small oscillations about a base state are affected either by a generic passive control element in the system (the structural sensitivity analysis) or by a generic change to its base state (the base-state sensitivity analysis). We illustrate the structural sensitivity by calculating the effect of a second hot wire with a small heat-release parameter. In a single calculation, this shows how the second hot wire changes the growth rate and frequency of the small oscillations, as a function of its position in the tube. We then examine the components of the structural sensitivity in order to determine the passive control mechanism that has the strongest influence on the growth rate. We find that a force applied to the acoustic momentum equation in the opposite direction to the instantaneous velocity is the most stabilizing feedback mechanism. We also find that its effect is maximized when it is placed at the downstream end of the tube. This feedback mechanism could be supplied, for example, by an adiabatic mesh. We illustrate the base-state sensitivity by calculating the effects of small variations in the damping factor, the heat-release time-delay coefficient, the heat-release parameter, and the hot-wire location. The successful application of sensitivity analysis to thermo-acoustics opens up new possibilities for the passive control of thermo-acoustic oscillations by providing gradient information that can be combined with constrained optimization algorithms in order to reduce linear growth rates. © Cambridge University Press 2013.

Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle

A sensitivity study has been conducted to assess the robustness of the conclusions presented in the MIT Fuel Cycle Study. The Once Through Cycle (OTC) is considered as the base-line case, while advanced technologies with fuel recycling characterize the alternative fuel cycles. The options include limited recycling in LWRs and full recycling in fast reactors and in high conversion LWRs. Fast reactor technologies studied include both oxide and metal fueled reactors. The analysis allowed optimization of the fast reactor conversion ratio with respect to desired fuel cycle performance characteristics. The following parameters were found to significantly affect the performance of recycling technologies and their penetration over time: Capacity Factors of the fuel cycle facilities, Spent Fuel Cooling Time, Thermal Reprocessing Introduction Date, and incore and Out-of-core TRU Inventory Requirements for recycling technology. An optimization scheme of the nuclear fuel cycle is proposed. Optimization criteria and metrics of interest for different stakeholders in the fuel cycle (economics, waste management, environmental impact, etc.) are utilized for two different optimization techniques (linear and stochastic). Preliminary results covering single and multi-variable and single and multi-objective optimization demonstrate the viability of the optimization scheme.

Structural sensitivity of spiral vortex breakdown

Previous numerical simulations have shown that vortex breakdown starts with the formation of a steady axisymmetric bubble and that an unsteady spiralling mode then develops on top of this. We investigate this spiral mode with a linear global stability analysis around the steady bubble and its wake. We obtain the linear direct and adjoint global modes of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations and overlap these to obtain the structural sensitivity of the spiral mode, which identifies the wavemaker region. We also identify regions of absolute instability with a local stability analysis. At moderate swirls, we find that the m=-1 azimuthal mode is the most unstable and that the wavemaker regions of the m=-1 mode lie around the bubble, which is absolutely unstable. The mode is most sensitive to feedback involving the radial and azimuthal components of momentum in the region just upstream of the bubble. To a lesser extent, the mode is also sensitive to feedback involving the axial component of momentum in regions of high shear around the bubble. At an intermediate swirl, in which the bubble and wake have similar absolute growth rates, other researchers have found that the wavemaker of the nonlinear global mode lies in the wake. We agree with their analysis but find that the regions around the bubble are more influential than the wake in determining the growth rate and frequency of the linear global mode. The results from this paper provide the first steps towards passive control strategies for spiral vortex breakdown. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.