Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050.

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

Steel and aluminium in a low carbon future

Production of steel and aluminium creates 10% of global carbon emissions from energy and processes. Demand is likely to double by 2050, but climate scientists are recommending absolute reductions of at least 50% and these are Increasingly entering law. How can reductions of this order happen? Only 10-20% savings can be expected in liquid metal production, so the primary industry is pursuing carbon sequestration as the main solution. However, this Is as yet unproven at scale, and as well as carrying some risk, the capital and operating costs are likely to be high, but are as yet unknown. In parallel with these strategies we can also examine whether we can reduce demand for liquid metal. 'Material efficiency' may allow delivery of existing services with less requirement for metal, for instance through designing products that use less metal, reducing process scrap, diverting scrap for other use, re-using components or delaying end of life. Overall demand reduction could occur if goods were used more intensely, alternative means were used to deliver the same services, or total demand were constrained. The paper analyses all possible options, to define and evaluate scenarios that meet the 2050 target, and discuss the steps required to bring them about. The paper concludes with suggestions for key areas where future research In metal forming can support a future low carbon economy. © 2011 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA. Weinheim.

Briefing: Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050 - Urban Foresight and Transition Management

Cities may be responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption and by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population could live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city regions systemically to re-engineer their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. Re-Engineering the City 2020-2050: Urban Foresight and Transition Management (Retrofit 2050) is a major new interdisciplinary project funded under the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council's (EPSRC) Sustainable Urban Environments Programme which seeks to address this challenge. This briefing describes the background and conceptual framing of Retrofit 2050 project, its aims and objectives and research approach.

Global civil aviation black carbon emissions.

Aircraft black carbon (BC) emissions contribute to climate forcing, but few estimates of BC emitted by aircraft at cruise exist. For the majority of aircraft engines the only BC-related measurement available is smoke number (SN)-a filter based optical method designed to measure near-ground plume visibility, not mass. While the first order approximation (FOA3) technique has been developed to estimate BC mass emissions normalized by fuel burn [EI(BC)] from SN, it is shown that it underestimates EI(BC) by >90% in 35% of directly measured cases (R(2) = -0.10). As there are no plans to measure BC emissions from all existing certified engines-which will be in service for several decades-it is necessary to estimate EI(BC) for existing aircraft on the ground and at cruise. An alternative method, called FOX, that is independent of the SN is developed to estimate BC emissions. Estimates of EI(BC) at ground level are significantly improved (R(2) = 0.68), whereas estimates at cruise are within 30% of measurements. Implementing this approach for global civil aviation estimated aircraft BC emissions are revised upward by a factor of ~3. Direct radiative forcing (RF) due to aviation BC emissions is estimated to be ~9.5 mW/m(2), equivalent to ~1/3 of the current RF due to aviation CO2 emissions.

A global assessment of manufacturing: Economic development, energy use, carbon emissions, and the potential for energy efficiency and materials recycling

We present in two parts an assessment of global manufacturing. In the first part, we review economic development, pollution, and carbon emissions from a country perspective, tracking the rise of China and other developing countries. The results show not only a rise in the economic fortunes of the newly industrializing nations, but also a significant rise in global pollution, particularly air pollution and CO2 emissions largely from coal use, which alter and even reverse previous global trends. In the second part, we change perspective and quantitatively evaluate two important technical strategies to reduce pollution and carbon emissions: energy efficiency and materials recycling. We subdivide the manufacturing sector on the basis of the five major subsectors that dominate energy use and carbon emissions: (a) iron and steel, (b) cement, (c) plastics, (d) paper, and (e) aluminum. The analysis identifies technical constraints on these strategies, but by combined and aggressive action, industry should be able to balance increases in demand with these technical improvements. The result would be high but relatively flat energy use and carbon emissions. The review closes by demonstrating the consequences of extrapolating trends in production and carbon emissions and suggesting two options for further environmental improvements, materials efficiency, and demand reduction. © 2013 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the limits of HANPP and carbon emissions which prolong total species well-being

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change are leading to irreversible losses of global biodiversity, upon which ecosystem functioning depends. Since total species' well-being depends on ecosystem goods and services, man must determine how much net primary productivity (NPP) may be appropriated and carbon emitted so as to not adversely impact this and future generations. In 2005, man ought to have only appropriated 9.72 Pg C of NPP, representing a factor 2.50, or 59.93%, reduction in human-appropriated NPP in that year. Concurrently, the carbon cycle would have been balanced with a factor 1.26, or 20.84%, reduction from 7.60 Gt C/year to 5.70 Gt C/year, representing a return to the 1986 levels. This limit is in keeping with the category III stabilization scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Projecting population growth to 2030 and its associated basic food requirements, the maximum HANPP remains at 9.74 ± 0.02 Pg C/year. This time-invariant HANPP may only provide for the current global population of 6.51 billion equitably at the current average consumption of 1.49 t C per capita, calling into question the sustainability of developing countries striving for high-consuming country levels of 5.85 t C per capita and its impacts on equitable resource distribution. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

X-ray propagation in carbon nanotubes

The maintenance of the growth of the multibillion-dollar semiconductor industry requires the development of techniques for the fabrication and characterisation of nanoscale devices. Consequently, there is great interest in photolithography techniques such as extreme UV and x-ray. Both of these techniques are extremely expensive and technologically very demanding. In this paper we describe research on the feasibility of exploiting x-ray propagation within carbon nanotubes (CNT's) for the fabrication and characterisation of nanoscale devices. This work discusses the parameters determining the design space available. To demonstrate experimentally the feasibility of x-ray propagation, arrays of carbon nanotubes have been grown on silicon membranes. The latter are required to provide structural support for the CNT's while minimising energy loss. To form a waveguide metal is deposited between the nanotubes to block x-ray transmission in this region at the same time as cladding the CNT's. The major challenge has been to fill the spaces between the CNT's with material of sufficient thickness to block x-ray transmission while maintaining the structural integrity of the CNT's. Various techniques have been employed to fill the gaps between the nanotubes including electroplating, sputtering and evaporation. This work highlights challenges encountered in optimising the process.

The mechanical integrity of fuel pin cladding in a pulsed-beam accelerator driven subcritical reactor

The Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactor (ADSR) is one of the reactor designs proposed for future nuclear energy production. Interest in the ADSR arises from its enhanced and intrinsic safety characteristics, as well as its potential ability to utilize the large global reserves of thorium and to burn legacy actinide waste from other reactors and decommissioned nuclear weapons. The ADSR concept is based on the coupling of a particle accelerator and a subcritical core by means of a neutron spallation target interface. One of the candidate accelerator technologies receiving increasing attention, the Fixed Field Alternating Gradient (FFAG) accelerator, generates a pulsed proton beam. This paper investigates the impact of pulsed proton beam operation on the mechanical integrity of the fuel pin cladding. A pulsed beam induces repetitive temperature changes in the reactor core which lead to cyclic thermal stresses in the cladding. To perform the thermal analysis aspects of this study a code that couples the neutron kinetics of a subcritical core to a cylindrical geometry heat transfer model was developed. This code, named PTS-ADS, enables temperature variations in the cladding to be calculated. These results are then used to perform thermal fatigue analysis and to predict the stress-life behaviour of the cladding. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fabrication, densification, and replica molding of 3D carbon nanotube microstructures

The introduction of new materials and processes to microfabrication has, in large part, enabled many important advances in microsystems, labon- a-chip devices, and their applications. In particular, capabilities for cost-effective fabrication of polymer microstructures were transformed by the advent of soft lithography and other micromolding techniques 1,2, and this led a revolution in applications of microfabrication to biomedical engineering and biology. Nevertheless, it remains challenging to fabricate microstructures with well-defined nanoscale surface textures, and to fabricate arbitrary 3D shapes at the micro-scale. Robustness of master molds and maintenance of shape integrity is especially important to achieve high fidelity replication of complex structures and preserving their nanoscale surface texture. The combination of hierarchical textures, and heterogeneous shapes, is a profound challenge to existing microfabrication methods that largely rely upon top-down etching using fixed mask templates. On the other hand, the bottom-up synthesis of nanostructures such as nanotubes and nanowires can offer new capabilities to microfabrication, in particular by taking advantage of the collective self-organization of nanostructures, and local control of their growth behavior with respect to microfabricated patterns. Our goal is to introduce vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs), which we refer to as CNT "forests", as a new microfabrication material. We present details of a suite of related methods recently developed by our group: fabrication of CNT forest microstructures by thermal CVD from lithographically patterned catalyst thin films; self-directed elastocapillary densification of CNT microstructures; and replica molding of polymer microstructures using CNT composite master molds. In particular, our work shows that self-directed capillary densification ("capillary forming"), which is performed by condensation of a solvent onto the substrate with CNT microstructures, significantly increases the packing density of CNTs. This process enables directed transformation of vertical CNT microstructures into straight, inclined, and twisted shapes, which have robust mechanical properties exceeding those of typical microfabrication polymers. This in turn enables formation of nanocomposite CNT master molds by capillary-driven infiltration of polymers. The replica structures exhibit the anisotropic nanoscale texture of the aligned CNTs, and can have walls with sub-micron thickness and aspect ratios exceeding 50:1. Integration of CNT microstructures in fabrication offers further opportunity to exploit the electrical and thermal properties of CNTs, and diverse capabilities for chemical and biochemical functionalization 3. © 2012 Journal of Visualized Experiments.

Structural analysis of plate-type fuel assemblies and development of a non-destructive method to assess their integrity

This work is concerned with the structural behaviour and the integrity of parallel plate-type nuclear fuel assemblies. A plate-type assembly consists of several thin plates mounted in a box-like structure and is subjected to a coolant flow that can result in a considerable drag force. A finite element model of an assembly is presented to study the sensitivity of the natural frequencies to the stiffness of the plates' junctions. It is shown that the shift in the natural frequencies of the torsional modes can be used to check the global integrity of the fuel assembly while the local natural frequencies of the inner plates can be used to estimate the maximum drag force they can resist. Finally a non-destructive method is developed to assess the resistance of the inner plates to bear an applied load. Extensive computational and experimental results are presented to prove the applicability of the method presented. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.