111 resultados para Forecast error variance

em Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database


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In this paper, a novel MPC strategy is proposed, and referred to as asso MPC. The new paradigm features an 1-regularised least squares loss function, in which the control error variance competes with the sum of input channels magnitude (or slew rate) over the whole horizon length. This cost choice is motivated by the successful development of LASSO theory in signal processing and machine learning. In the latter fields, sum-of-norms regularisation have shown a strong capability to provide robust and sparse solutions for system identification and feature selection. In this paper, a discrete-time dual-mode asso MPC is formulated, and its stability is proven by application of standard MPC arguments. The controller is then tested for the problem of ship course keeping and roll reduction with rudder and fins, in a directional stochastic sea. Simulations show the asso MPC to inherit positive features from its corresponding regressor: extreme reduction of decision variables' magnitude, namely, actuators' magnitude (or variations), with a finite energy error, being particularly promising for over-actuated systems. © 2012 AACC American Automatic Control Council).

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Accurate estimation of the instantaneous frequency of speech resonances is a hard problem mainly due to phase discontinuities in the speech signal associated with excitation instants. We review a variety of approaches for enhanced frequency and bandwidth estimation in the time-domain and propose a new cognitively motivated approach using filterbank arrays. We show that by filtering speech resonances using filters of different center frequency, bandwidth and shape, the ambiguity in instantaneous frequency estimation associated with amplitude envelope minima and phase discontinuities can be significantly reduced. The novel estimators are shown to perform well on synthetic speech signals with frequency and bandwidth micro-modulations (i.e., modulations within a pitch period), as well as on real speech signals. Filterbank arrays, when applied to frequency and bandwidth modulation index estimation, are shown to reduce the estimation error variance by 85% and 70% respectively. © 2013 IEEE.

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The non-deterministic relationship between Bit Error Rate and Packet Error Rate is demonstrated for an optical media access layer in common use. We show that frequency components of coded, non-random data can cause this relationship. © 2005 Optical Society of America.

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The sensor scheduling problem can be formulated as a controlled hidden Markov model and this paper solves the problem when the state, observation and action spaces are continuous. This general case is important as it is the natural framework for many applications. The aim is to minimise the variance of the estimation error of the hidden state w.r.t. the action sequence. We present a novel simulation-based method that uses a stochastic gradient algorithm to find optimal actions. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Many problems in control and signal processing can be formulated as sequential decision problems for general state space models. However, except for some simple models one cannot obtain analytical solutions and has to resort to approximation. In this thesis, we have investigated problems where Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods can be combined with a gradient based search to provide solutions to online optimisation problems. We summarise the main contributions of the thesis as follows. Chapter 4 focuses on solving the sensor scheduling problem when cast as a controlled Hidden Markov Model. We consider the case in which the state, observation and action spaces are continuous. This general case is important as it is the natural framework for many applications. In sensor scheduling, our aim is to minimise the variance of the estimation error of the hidden state with respect to the action sequence. We present a novel SMC method that uses a stochastic gradient algorithm to find optimal actions. This is in contrast to existing works in the literature that only solve approximations to the original problem. In Chapter 5 we presented how an SMC can be used to solve a risk sensitive control problem. We adopt the use of the Feynman-Kac representation of a controlled Markov chain flow and exploit the properties of the logarithmic Lyapunov exponent, which lead to a policy gradient solution for the parameterised problem. The resulting SMC algorithm follows a similar structure with the Recursive Maximum Likelihood(RML) algorithm for online parameter estimation. In Chapters 6, 7 and 8, dynamic Graphical models were combined with with state space models for the purpose of online decentralised inference. We have concentrated more on the distributed parameter estimation problem using two Maximum Likelihood techniques, namely Recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) and Expectation Maximization (EM). The resulting algorithms can be interpreted as an extension of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm to compute likelihood gradients. In order to design an SMC algorithm, in Chapter 8 uses a nonparametric approximations for Belief Propagation. The algorithms were successfully applied to solve the sensor localisation problem for sensor networks of small and medium size.