A backward particle interpretation of Feynman-Kac formulae

We design a particle interpretation of Feynman-Kac measures on path spaces based on a backward Markovian representation combined with a traditional mean field particle interpretation of the flow of their final time marginals. In contrast to traditional genealogical tree based models, these new particle algorithms can be used to compute normalized additive functionals "on-the-fly" as well as their limiting occupation measures with a given precision degree that does not depend on the final time horizon. We provide uniform convergence results with respect to the time horizon parameter as well as functional central limit theorems and exponential concentration estimates. Our results have important consequences for online parameter estimation for non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We show how the forward filtering backward smoothing estimates of additive functionals can be computed using a forward only recursion.

Sequential decision making in general state space models

Many problems in control and signal processing can be formulated as sequential decision problems for general state space models. However, except for some simple models one cannot obtain analytical solutions and has to resort to approximation. In this thesis, we have investigated problems where Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods can be combined with a gradient based search to provide solutions to online optimisation problems. We summarise the main contributions of the thesis as follows. Chapter 4 focuses on solving the sensor scheduling problem when cast as a controlled Hidden Markov Model. We consider the case in which the state, observation and action spaces are continuous. This general case is important as it is the natural framework for many applications. In sensor scheduling, our aim is to minimise the variance of the estimation error of the hidden state with respect to the action sequence. We present a novel SMC method that uses a stochastic gradient algorithm to find optimal actions. This is in contrast to existing works in the literature that only solve approximations to the original problem. In Chapter 5 we presented how an SMC can be used to solve a risk sensitive control problem. We adopt the use of the Feynman-Kac representation of a controlled Markov chain flow and exploit the properties of the logarithmic Lyapunov exponent, which lead to a policy gradient solution for the parameterised problem. The resulting SMC algorithm follows a similar structure with the Recursive Maximum Likelihood(RML) algorithm for online parameter estimation. In Chapters 6, 7 and 8, dynamic Graphical models were combined with with state space models for the purpose of online decentralised inference. We have concentrated more on the distributed parameter estimation problem using two Maximum Likelihood techniques, namely Recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) and Expectation Maximization (EM). The resulting algorithms can be interpreted as an extension of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm to compute likelihood gradients. In order to design an SMC algorithm, in Chapter 8 uses a nonparametric approximations for Belief Propagation. The algorithms were successfully applied to solve the sensor localisation problem for sensor networks of small and medium size.

Convergence of the auxiliary particle implementation of the PHD filter

Optimal Bayesian multi-target filtering is in general computationally impractical owing to the high dimensionality of the multi-target state. The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first moment of the multi-target posterior distribution. While this reduces the dimensionality of the problem, the PHD filter still involves intractable integrals in many cases of interest. Several authors have proposed Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) implementations of the PHD filter. However, these implementations are the equivalent of the Bootstrap Particle Filter, and the latter is well known to be inefficient. Drawing on ideas from the Auxiliary Particle Filter (APF), a SMC implementation of the PHD filter which employs auxiliary variables to enhance its efficiency was proposed by Whiteley et. al. Numerical examples were presented for two scenarios, including a challenging nonlinear observation model, to support the claim. This paper studies the theoretical properties of this auxiliary particle implementation. $\mathbb{L}_p$ error bounds are established from which almost sure convergence follows.

Auxiliary particle implementation of the probability hypothesis density filter

Optimal Bayesian multi-target filtering is, in general, computationally impractical owing to the high dimensionality of the multi-target state. The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first moment of the multi-target posterior distribution. While this reduces the dimensionality of the problem, the PHD filter still involves intractable integrals in many cases of interest. Several authors have proposed Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) implementations of the PHD filter. However, these implementations are the equivalent of the Bootstrap Particle Filter, and the latter is well known to be inefficient. Drawing on ideas from the Auxiliary Particle Filter (APF), we present a SMC implementation of the PHD filter which employs auxiliary variables to enhance its efficiency. Numerical examples are presented for two scenarios, including a challenging nonlinear observation model.

Analytical approximations for the modal acoustic impedances of simply supported, rectangular plates.

Coupling of the in vacuo modes of a fluid-loaded, vibrating structure by the resulting acoustic field, while known to be negligible for sufficiently light fluids, is still only partially understood. A particularly useful structural geometry for the study of this problem is the simply supported, rectangular flat plate, since it exhibits all the relevant physical features while still admitting an analytical description of the modes. Here the influence of the fluid can be expressed in terms of a set of doubly infinite integrals over wave number: the modal acoustic impedances. Closed-form solutions for these impedances do not exist and, while their numerical evaluation is possible, it greatly increases the computational cost of solving the coupled system of modal equations. There is thus a need for accurate analytical approximations. In this work, such approximations are sought in the limit where the modal wavelength is small in comparison with the acoustic wavelength and the plate dimensions. It is shown that contour integration techniques can be used to derive analytical formulas for this regime and that these formulas agree closely with the results of numerical evaluations. Previous approximations [Davies, J. Sound Vib. 15(1), 107-126 (1971)] are assessed in the light of the new results and are shown to give a satisfactory description of real impedance components, but (in general) erroneous expressions for imaginary parts.

Probabilistic fault identification using vibration data and neural networks

Bayesian formulated neural networks are implemented using hybrid Monte Carlo method for probabilistic fault identification in cylindrical shells. Each of the 20 nominally identical cylindrical shells is divided into three substructures. Holes of (12±2) mm in diameter are introduced in each of the substructures and vibration data are measured. Modal properties and the Coordinate Modal Assurance Criterion (COMAC) are utilized to train the two modal-property-neural-networks. These COMAC are calculated by taking the natural-frequency-vector to be an additional mode. Modal energies are calculated by determining the integrals of the real and imaginary components of the frequency response functions over bandwidths of 12% of the natural frequencies. The modal energies and the Coordinate Modal Energy Assurance Criterion (COMEAC) are used to train the two frequency-response-function-neural-networks. The averages of the two sets of trained-networks (COMAC and COMEAC as well as modal properties and modal energies) form two committees of networks. The COMEAC and the COMAC are found to be better identification data than using modal properties and modal energies directly. The committee approach is observed to give lower standard deviations than the individual methods. The main advantage of the Bayesian formulation is that it gives identities of damage and their respective confidence intervals.

Feasibility of damage detection using vibration data in a population of cylinders

The feasibility of vibration data to identify damage in a population of cylindrical shells is assessed. Vibration data from a population of cylinders were measured and modal analysis was employed to obtain natural frequencies and mode shapes. The mode shapes were transformed into the Coordinate Modal Assurance Criterion (COMAC). The natural frequencies and the COMAC before and after damage for a population of structures show that modal analysis is a viable route to damage identification in a population of nominally identical cylinders. Modal energies, which are defined as the integrals of the real and imaginary components of the frequency response functions over various frequency ranges, were extracted and transformed into the Coordinate Modal Energy Assurance Criterion (COMEAC). The COMEAC before and after damage show that using modal energies is a viable approach to damage identification in a population of cylinders.

Analytical techniques for indentation of viscoelastic materials

Indentation of linearly viscoelastic materials is explored using elastic-viscoelastic correspondence analysis for both conical-pyramidal and spherical indentation. Boltzmann hereditary integrals are used to generate displacement-time solutions for loading at constant rate and creep following ramp loading. Experimental data for triangle- and trapezoidal-loading are examined for commercially-available polymers and compared with analytical solutions. Emphasis is given to the use of multiple experiments to test the fidelity and predictive capability of the obtained material creep function. Plastic deformation occurs in sharp indentation of glassy polymers and is found to complicate the viscoelastic analysis. A new method is proposed for estimating a material time-constant from peak displacement or hardness data obtained in pyramidal indentation tests performed at different loading rates.