Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Assessing the potential of yield improvements, through process scrap reduction, for energy and CO2 abatement in the steel and aluminium sectors

Targets to cut 2050 CO2 emissions in the steel and aluminium sectors by 50%, whilst demand is expected to double, cannot be met by energy efficiency measures alone, so options that reduce total demand for liquid metal production must also be considered. Such reductions could occur through reduced demand for final goods (for instance by life extension), reduced demand for material use in each product (for instance by lightweight design) or reduced demand for material to make existing products. The last option, improving the yield of manufacturing processes from liquid metal to final product, is attractive in being invisible to the final customer, but has had little attention to date. Accordingly this paper aims to provide an estimate of the potential to make existing products with less liquid metal production. Yield ratios have been measured for five case study products, through a series of detailed factory visits, along each supply chain. The results of these studies, presented on graphs of cumulative energy against yield, demonstrate how the embodied energy in final products may be up to 15 times greater than the energy required to make liquid metal, due to yield losses. A top-down evaluation of the global flows of steel and aluminium showed that 26% of liquid steel and 41% of liquid aluminium produced does not make it into final products, but is diverted as process scrap and recycled. Reducing scrap substitutes production by recycling and could reduce total energy use by 17% and 6% and total CO 2 emissions by 16% and 7% for the steel and aluminium industries respectively, using forming and fabrication energy values from the case studies. The abatement potential of process scrap elimination is similar in magnitude to worldwide implementation of best available standards of energy efficiency and demonstrates how decreasing the recycled content may sometimes result in emission reductions. Evidence from the case studies suggests that whilst most companies are aware of their own yield ratios, few, if any, are fully aware of cumulative losses along their whole supply chain. Addressing yield losses requires this awareness to motivate collaborative approaches to improvement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The statistics of the second order response of an FPSO in spreading seas

An expression for the probability density function of the second order response of a general FPSO in spreading seas is derived by using the Kac-Siegert approach. Various approximations of the second order force transfer functions are investigated for a ship-shaped FPSO. It is found that, when expressed in non-dimensional form, the probability density function of the response is not particularly sensitive to wave spreading, although the mean squared response and the resulting dimensional extreme values can be sensitive. The analysis is then applied to a Sevan FPSO, which is a large cylindrical buoy-like structure. The second order force transfer functions are derived by using an efficient semi-analytical hydrodynamic approach, and these are then employed to yield the extreme response. However, a significant effect of wave spreading on the statistics for a Sevan FPSO is found even in non-dimensional form. It implies that the exact statistics of a general ship-shaped FPSO may be sensitive to the wave direction, which needs to be verified in future work. It is also pointed out that the Newman's approximation regarding the frequency dependency of force transfer function is acceptable even for the spreading seas. An improvement on the results may be attained when considering the angular dependency exactly. Copyright © 2009 by ASME.

Two-dimensional liquid crystal laser array

A two-dimensional liquid crystal (LC) laser array has been demonstrated by photopumping a single LC sample using a lenslet array consisting of plano-convex microlenses. A 5 × 5 array of LC lasers (displaying evidence of mutual coherence) spaced by 1 mm inactive regions has been generated, which could be combined to yield a single monomode output and allows an almost 50-fold increase in energy density in comparison to a single-focus LC cavity. Furthermore, we have demonstrated how the individual and recombined emission spectra vary with different sample topologies and how polydomain samples can be used to generate a multiwavelength laser emission. © 2008 Optical Society of America.

Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

Chiral gratings - A new class of polarization sensitive metamaterials

The first experimental demonstration of unique polarizatioon characteristics are reported. It is believed that the strong polarization effects reported result from the chirality imposed by the patterns of gammadions enhanced by plasmon effects due to the nanostructuring of the metal film in which they are cut. It is clear that such structures has the potential to yield many new and intriguing applications in optoelectronics and other areas.

Morphological decomposition in Arabic ASR systems

In recent years, the use of morphological decomposition strategies for Arabic Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) has become increasingly popular. Systems trained on morphologically decomposed data are often used in combination with standard word-based approaches, and they have been found to yield consistent performance improvements. The present article contributes to this ongoing research endeavour by exploring the use of the 'Morphological Analysis and Disambiguation for Arabic' (MADA) tools for this purpose. System integration issues concerning language modelling and dictionary construction, as well as the estimation of pronunciation probabilities, are discussed. In particular, a novel solution for morpheme-to-word conversion is presented which makes use of an N-gram Statistical Machine Translation (SMT) approach. System performance is investigated within a multi-pass adaptation/combination framework. All the systems described in this paper are evaluated on an Arabic large vocabulary speech recognition task which includes both Broadcast News and Broadcast Conversation test data. It is shown that the use of MADA-based systems, in combination with word-based systems, can reduce the Word Error Rates by up to 8.1 relative. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical electrohydrodynamic structures for surface-enhanced Raman scattering (adv. Mater. 23/2012).

On page OP 175, U. Steiner and co-workers destabilise polymer trilayer films using an electric field to generate separated micrometre-sized core-shell pillars, which are further modified by selective polymer dissolution to yield polymer core columns surrounded by a rim and micro-volcano rim structures. When coated with gold and decorated with Raman active probes, all three structure types give rise to substantial enhancement in surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS). Since this SERS enhancement arises from each of the isolated structures in the array, these surface patterns are an ideal platform for multiplexed SERS detection.

Reinforcement learning with reference tracking control in continuous state spaces

The contribution described in this paper is an algorithm for learning nonlinear, reference tracking, control policies given no prior knowledge of the dynamical system and limited interaction with the system through the learning process. Concepts from the field of reinforcement learning, Bayesian statistics and classical control have been brought together in the formulation of this algorithm which can be viewed as a form of indirect self tuning regulator. On the task of reference tracking using a simulated inverted pendulum it was shown to yield generally improved performance on the best controller derived from the standard linear quadratic method using only 30 s of total interaction with the system. Finally, the algorithm was shown to work on the simulated double pendulum proving its ability to solve nontrivial control tasks. © 2011 IEEE.

The analysis of impact forces in randomly vibrating elastic systems

This work is concerned with the characteristics of the impact force produced when two randomly vibrating elastic bodies collide with each other, or when a single randomly vibrating elastic body collides with a stop. The impact condition includes a non-linear spring, which may represent, for example, a Hertzian contact, and in the case of a single body, closed form approximate expressions are derived for the duration and magnitude of the impact force and for the maximum deceleration at the impact point. For the case of two impacting bodies, a set of algebraic equations are derived which can be solved numerically to yield the quantities of interest. The approach is applied to a beam impacting a stop, a plate impacting a stop, and to two impacting beams, and in each case a comparison is made with detailed numerical simulations. Aspects of the statistics of impact velocity are also considered, including the probability that the impact velocity will exceed a specified value within a certain time. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Product life trade-offs: what if products fail early?

Increasing product life allows the embodied emissions in products to be spread across a longer period but can mean that opportunities to improve use-phase efficiency are foregone. In this paper, a model that evaluates this trade-off is presented and used to estimate the optimal product life for a range of metal-intensive products. Two strategies that have potential to save emissions are explored: (1) adding extra embodied emissions to make products more sturdy, increasing product life, and (2) increasing frequency of use, causing early product failure to take advantage of improvements in use-phase efficiency. These strategies are evaluated for two specific case studies (long-life washing machines and more frequent use of vehicles through car clubs) and for a range of embodied and use-phase intensive products under different use-phase improvement rate assumptions. Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that products often fail neither at their design life nor at their optimal life. Policy recommendations are then made regarding the targeting of these strategies according to product characteristics and the timing of typical product failure relative to optimal product life.

Two problems with variational expectation maximisation for time-series models

Variational methods are a key component of the approximate inference and learning toolbox. These methods fill an important middle ground, retaining distributional information about uncertainty in latent variables, unlike maximum a posteriori methods (MAP), and yet generally requiring less computational time than Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. In particular the variational Expectation Maximisation (vEM) and variational Bayes algorithms, both involving variational optimisation of a free-energy, are widely used in time-series modelling. Here, we investigate the success of vEM in simple probabilistic time-series models. First we consider the inference step of vEM, and show that a consequence of the well-known compactness property of variational inference is a failure to propagate uncertainty in time, thus limiting the usefulness of the retained distributional information. In particular, the uncertainty may appear to be smallest precisely when the approximation is poorest. Second, we consider parameter learning and analytically reveal systematic biases in the parameters found by vEM. Surprisingly, simpler variational approximations (such a mean-field) can lead to less bias than more complicated structured approximations.

The vibro-acoustic analysis of built-up systems using a hybrid method with parametric and non-parametric uncertainties

An existing hybrid finite element (FE)/statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach to the analysis of the mid- and high frequency vibrations of a complex built-up system is extended here to a wider class of uncertainty modeling. In the original approach, the constituent parts of the system are considered to be either deterministic, and modeled using FE, or highly random, and modeled using SEA. A non-parametric model of randomness is employed in the SEA components, based on diffuse wave theory and the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and this enables the mean and variance of second order quantities such as vibrational energy and response cross-spectra to be predicted. In the present work the assumption that the FE components are deterministic is relaxed by the introduction of a parametric model of uncertainty in these components. The parametric uncertainty may be modeled either probabilistically, or by using a non-probabilistic approach such as interval analysis, and it is shown how these descriptions can be combined with the non-parametric uncertainty in the SEA subsystems to yield an overall assessment of the performance of the system. The method is illustrated by application to an example built-up plate system which has random properties, and benchmark comparisons are made with full Monte Carlo simulations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.