Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Product life trade-offs: what if products fail early?

Increasing product life allows the embodied emissions in products to be spread across a longer period but can mean that opportunities to improve use-phase efficiency are foregone. In this paper, a model that evaluates this trade-off is presented and used to estimate the optimal product life for a range of metal-intensive products. Two strategies that have potential to save emissions are explored: (1) adding extra embodied emissions to make products more sturdy, increasing product life, and (2) increasing frequency of use, causing early product failure to take advantage of improvements in use-phase efficiency. These strategies are evaluated for two specific case studies (long-life washing machines and more frequent use of vehicles through car clubs) and for a range of embodied and use-phase intensive products under different use-phase improvement rate assumptions. Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that products often fail neither at their design life nor at their optimal life. Policy recommendations are then made regarding the targeting of these strategies according to product characteristics and the timing of typical product failure relative to optimal product life.

Two problems with variational expectation maximisation for time-series models

Variational methods are a key component of the approximate inference and learning toolbox. These methods fill an important middle ground, retaining distributional information about uncertainty in latent variables, unlike maximum a posteriori methods (MAP), and yet generally requiring less computational time than Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. In particular the variational Expectation Maximisation (vEM) and variational Bayes algorithms, both involving variational optimisation of a free-energy, are widely used in time-series modelling. Here, we investigate the success of vEM in simple probabilistic time-series models. First we consider the inference step of vEM, and show that a consequence of the well-known compactness property of variational inference is a failure to propagate uncertainty in time, thus limiting the usefulness of the retained distributional information. In particular, the uncertainty may appear to be smallest precisely when the approximation is poorest. Second, we consider parameter learning and analytically reveal systematic biases in the parameters found by vEM. Surprisingly, simpler variational approximations (such a mean-field) can lead to less bias than more complicated structured approximations.

Transverse cracking of a simple lap joint under axial load

The failure mode of axially loaded simple, single lap joints formed between thin adherends which are flexible in bending is conventionally described as one of axial peeling. We have observed - using high-speed photography - that it is also possible for failure to be preceded by the separation front, or crack, moving in a transverse direction, i.e. perpendicular to the direction of the axial load. A simple energy balance analysis suggests that the critical load for transverse failure is the same as that for axial separation for both flexible lap joints, where the bulk of the stored elastic energy lies in the adhesive, and structural lap joints in which the energy stored in the adherends dominates. The initiation of the failure is dependent on a local increases in either stress or strain energy to some critical values. In the case of a flexible joint, this will occur within the adhesive layer and the critical site will be close to one of the corners of the joint overlap from which the separation front can proceed either axially or transversely. These conclusions are supported by a finite element analysis of a joint formed between adherends of finite width by a low modulus adhesive. © 2012 Taylor & Francis.

Dynamic Covariance Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Decay heat in fast reactors with transuranic fuels

In this work, we performed an evaluation of decay heat power of advanced, fast spectrum, lead and molten salt-cooled reactors, with flexible conversion ratio. The decay heat power was calculated using the BGCore computer code, which explicitly tracks over 1700 isotopes in the fuel throughout its burnup and subsequent decay. In the first stage, the capability of the BGCore code to accurately predict the decay heat power was verified by performing a benchmark calculation for a typical UO2 fuel in a Pressurized Water Reactor environment against the (ANSI/ANS-5.1-2005, "Decay Heat Power in Light Water Reactors," American National Standard) standard. Very good agreement (within 5%) between the two methods was obtained. Once BGCore calculation capabilities were verified, we calculated decay power for fast reactors with different coolants and conversion ratios, for which no standard procedure is currently available. Notable differences were observed for the decay power of the advanced reactor as compared with the conventional UO2 LWR. The importance of the observed differences was demonstrated by performing a simulation of a Station Blackout transient with the RELAP5 computer code for a lead-cooled fast reactor. The simulation was performed twice: using the code-default ANS-79 decay heat curve and using the curve calculated specifically for the studied core by BGCore code. The differences in the decay heat power resulted in failure to meet maximum cladding temperature limit criteria by ∼100 °C in the latter case, while in the transient simulation with the ANS-79 decay heat curve, all safety limits were satisfied. The results of this study show that the design of new reactor safety systems must be based on decay power curves specific to each individual case in order to assure the desired performance of these systems. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The sensitivity of vibration characteristics of reinforced concrete beams under incremental static and cyclic loading

The use of changes in vibration properties for global damage detection and monitoring of existing concrete structures has received great research attention in the last three decades. To track changes in vibration properties experimentally, structures have been artificially damaged by a variety of scenarios. However, this procedure does not represent realistically the whole design-life degradation of concrete structures. This paper presents experimental work on a set of damaged reinforced concrete beams due to different loading regimes to assess the sensitivity of vibration characteristics. Of the total set, three beams were subject to incremental static loading up to failure to simulate overloading, and two beams subject to 15 million loading cycles with varying amplitudes to produce an accelerated whole-life degradation scenario. To assess the vibration behaviour in both cases, swept sine and harmonic excitations were conducted at every damage level. The results show that resonant frequencies are not sensitive enough to damage due to cyclic loading, whereas cosh spectral and root mean square distances are more sensitive, yet more scattered. In addition, changes in non-linearity follow a softening trend for beams under incremental static loading, whilst they are significantly inconsistent for beams under cyclic loading. Amongst all examined characteristics, changes in modal stiffness are found to be most sensitive to damage and least scattered, but modal stiffness is tedious to compute due mainly to the difficulty of constructing restoring force surfaces from field measurements. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging of impaired sensory prediction in schizophrenia.

IMPORTANCE: Forward models predict the sensory consequences of planned actions and permit discrimination of self- and non-self-elicited sensation; their impairment in schizophrenia is implied by an abnormality in behavioral force-matching and the flawed agency judgments characteristic of positive symptoms, including auditory hallucinations and delusions of control. OBJECTIVE: To assess attenuation of sensory processing by self-action in individuals with schizophrenia and its relation to current symptom severity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired while medicated individuals with schizophrenia (n = 19) and matched controls (n = 19) performed a factorially designed sensorimotor task in which the occurrence and relative timing of action and sensation were manipulated. The study took place at the neuroimaging research unit at the Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College London, and the Maudsley Hospital. RESULTS: In controls, a region of secondary somatosensory cortex exhibited attenuated activation when sensation and action were synchronous compared with when the former occurred after an unexpected delay or alone. By contrast, reduced attenuation was observed in the schizophrenia group, suggesting that these individuals were unable to predict the sensory consequences of their own actions. Furthermore, failure to attenuate secondary somatosensory cortex processing was predicted by current hallucinatory severity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Although comparably reduced attenuation has been reported in the verbal domain, this work implies that a more general physiologic deficit underlies positive symptoms of schizophrenia.

Shear transfer across a diagonal crack in reinforced concrete strengthened with externally bonded FRP fabric

Aging concrete infrastructure in developed economies and more recently constructed concrete infrastructure in the developing world are frequently found to be deficient in structural strength relative to current needs. This can be attributed to a variety of factors including deterioration, construction defects, accidental damage, changes in understanding and failure to design for future loading requirements. Strengthening existing concrete structures can be a cost and carbon effective alternative to replacement. A competitive option for the strengthening of concrete slab-on-beam structures that are deficient in shear capacity is the U-wrapping of the down-stand beam portion of the shear span with externally bonded FRP fabric. While guidance exists for the strengthening of reinforced concrete by U-wrapping, the interaction between internal steel reinforcement, concrete and external FRP in the presence of a dominant diagonal shear crack is not well understood. An approach adopted in previous work has been to explore this interaction through conventional push-off testing. In conventional push-off testing, unlike in a beam, the shear plane is parallel to the direction of loading and perpendicular to the principal fibre orientation. This paper presents a novel push-off test variation in which the shear plane is inclined at 45° to the direction of loading and the principal fibre orientation. A variety of reinforcement ratios, FRP thicknesses and FRP end conditions are modelled. The implications of inclined cracking on debonding of FRP are investigated. The suitability and relevance of inclined push-off tests for further work in this area is also assessed. © 2013, NetComposite Limited.