Air traffic control with an expected value criterion

in this contribution we discuss a stochastic framework for air traffic conflict resolution. The conflict resolution task is posed as the problem of optimizing an expected value criterion. Optimization is carried out by Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulation. A numerical example illustrates the proposed strategy. Copyright © 2005 IFAC.

Managing Information Risks in asset management - Experiences from an in-depth case study in the utility industry

Information is one of the most important resources in our globalized economy. The value of information often exceeds the value of physical assets. Information quality has, in many ways, an impact on asset management organisations and asset managers struggle to understand and to quantify it, which is a prerequisite for effective information quality improvement. Over the past few years, we have developed an innovative management concept that addresses these new asset management challenges: a process for Total Information Risk Management (TIRM), which has been already tested in a number of asset management industries. The TIRM process enables to manage information quality more effectively in asset management organisations as it focuses specifically on the risks that are imposed by information quality. In this paper, we show how we have applied the TIRM process in an in-depth study at a medium-sized European utility provider, the Manx Electricity Authority (MEA), at the Isle of Man.

Encoding of marginal utility across time in the human brain.

Marginal utility theory prescribes the relationship between the objective property of the magnitude of rewards and their subjective value. Despite its pervasive influence, however, there is remarkably little direct empirical evidence for such a theory of value, let alone of its neurobiological basis. We show that human preferences in an intertemporal choice task are best described by a model that integrates marginally diminishing utility with temporal discounting. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that activity in the dorsal striatum encodes both the marginal utility of rewards, over and above that which can be described by their magnitude alone, and the discounting associated with increasing time. In addition, our data show that dorsal striatum may be involved in integrating subjective valuation systems inherent to time and magnitude, thereby providing an overall metric of value used to guide choice behavior. Furthermore, during choice, we show that anterior cingulate activity correlates with the degree of difficulty associated with dissonance between value and time. Our data support an integrative architecture for decision making, revealing the neural representation of distinct subcomponents of value that may contribute to impulsivity and decisiveness.

Blocking central opiate function modulates hedonic impact and anterior cingulate response to rewards and losses.

Reward processing is linked to specific neuromodulatory systems with a dopaminergic contribution to reward learning and motivational drive being well established. Neuromodulatory influences on hedonic responses to actual receipt of reward, or punishment, referred to as experienced utility are less well characterized, although a link to the endogenous opioid system is suggested. Here, in a combined functional magnetic resonance imaging-psychopharmacological investigation, we used naloxone to block central opioid function while subjects performed a gambling task associated with rewards and losses of different magnitudes, in which the mean expected value was always zero. A graded influence of naloxone on reward outcome was evident in an attenuation of pleasure ratings for larger reward outcomes, an effect mirrored in attenuation of brain activity to increasing reward magnitude in rostral anterior cingulate cortex. A more striking effect was seen for losses such that under naloxone all levels of negative outcome were rated as more unpleasant. This hedonic effect was associated with enhanced activity in anterior insula and caudal anterior cingulate cortex, areas implicated in aversive processing. Our data indicate that a central opioid system contributes to both reward and loss processing in humans and directly modulates the hedonic experience of outcomes.