Simulating dynamic covariance structures for testing the adaptive behavior of variable selection algorithms (Invited Paper)

Variable selection for regression is a classical statistical problem, motivated by concerns that too large a number of covariates may bring about overfitting and unnecessarily high measurement costs. Novel difficulties arise in streaming contexts, where the correlation structure of the process may be drifting, in which case it must be constantly tracked so that selections may be revised accordingly. A particularly interesting phenomenon is that non-selected covariates become missing variables, inducing bias on subsequent decisions. This raises an intricate exploration-exploitation tradeoff, whose dependence on the covariance tracking algorithm and the choice of variable selection scheme is too complex to be dealt with analytically. We hence capitalise on the strength of simulations to explore this problem, taking the opportunity to tackle the difficult task of simulating dynamic correlation structures. © 2008 IEEE.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller) or as an added value (risk-seeking controller) to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

Material model of lung parenchyma based on living precision-cut lung slice testing.

We describe a novel constitutive model of lung parenchyma, which can be used for continuum mechanics based predictive simulations. To develop this model, we experimentally determined the nonlinear material behavior of rat lung parenchyma. This was achieved via uni-axial tension tests on living precision-cut rat lung slices. The resulting force-displacement curves were then used as inputs for an inverse analysis. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was utilized to optimize the material parameters of combinations and recombinations of established strain-energy density functions (SEFs). Comparing the best-fits of the tested SEFs we found Wpar = 4.1 kPa(I1-3)2 + 20.7 kPa(I1 - 3)3 + 4.1 kPa(-2 ln J + J2 - 1) to be the optimal constitutive model. This SEF consists of three summands: the first can be interpreted as the contribution of the elastin fibers and the ground substance, the second as the contribution of the collagen fibers while the third controls the volumetric change. The presented approach will help to model the behavior of the pulmonary parenchyma and to quantify the strains and stresses during ventilation.

Transitions in the erosive wear behavior of a glass-ceramic

The mechanisms of material removal were investigated during the erosive wear of a glass-ceramic. The effects of erodent particle shape, velocity and angle were studied. Single impacts and incremental erosion tests were performed, to study the development of surface features and to elucidate the mechanisms of material removal. It was found that transitions in mechanism occurred which depended on the particle shape, impact velocity and impact angle. The mechanisms of material removal, for erosion by silica sand, changed from fine scale fracture and plastic processes below a transition point to large-scale cracking of the surface above. Spherical glass beads caused wear dominated by fatigue, with a very strong dependence of wear rate on the impact conditions. This work indicates that laboratory erosion testing of glass-ceramic and other brittle materials should reflect the conditions present in practice, and that account must be taken of possible changes in wear mechanisms.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty

Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller) or as an added value (risk-seeking controller) to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models. © 2010 Nagengast et al.

Effective handling of dialogue state in the hidden information state POMDP-based dialogue manager

Effective dialogue management is critically dependent on the information that is encoded in the dialogue state. In order to deploy reinforcement learning for policy optimization, dialogue must be modeled as a Markov Decision Process. This requires that the dialogue statemust encode all relevent information obtained during the dialogue prior to that state. This can be achieved by combining the user goal, the dialogue history, and the last user action to form the dialogue state. In addition, to gain robustness to input errors, dialogue must be modeled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) and hence, a distribution over all possible states must be maintained at every dialogue turn. This poses a potential computational limitation since there can be a very large number of dialogue states. The Hidden Information State model provides a principled way of ensuring tractability in a POMDP-based dialogue model. The key feature of this model is the grouping of user goals into partitions that are dynamically built during the dialogue. In this article, we extend this model further to incorporate the notion of complements. This allows for a more complex user goal to be represented, and it enables an effective pruning technique to be implemented that preserves the overall system performance within a limited computational resource more effectively than existing approaches. © 2011 ACM.

Load-displacement behavior during sharp indentation of viscous-elastic-plastic materials

A constitutive equation is developed for geometrically-similar sharp indentation of a material capable of elastic, viscous, and plastic deformation. The equation is based on a series of elements consisting of a quadratic (reversible) spring, a quadratic (time-dependent, reversible) dashpot, and a quadratic (time-independent, irreversible) slider-essentially modifying a model for an elastic-perfectly plastic material by incorporating a creeping component. Load-displacement solutions to the constitutive equation are obtained for load-controlled indentation during constant loading-rate testing. A characteristic of the responses is the appearance of a forward-displacing "nose" during unloading of load-controlled systems (e.g., magnetic-coil-driven "nanoindentation" systems). Even in the absence of this nose, and the associated initial negative unloading tangent, load-displacement traces (and hence inferred modulus and hardness values) are significantly perturbed on the addition of the viscous component. The viscous-elastic-plastic (VEP) model shows promise for obtaining material properties (elastic modulus, hardness, time-dependence) of time-dependent materials during indentation experiments.

UK-NEES - Distributed hybrid testing between Bristol, Cambridge and Oxford Universities: Connecting structural dynamics labs to a geotechnical centrifuge

Distributed hybrid testing is a natural extension to and builds upon the local hybrid testing technique. Taking advantage of the hybrid nature of the test, it allows a sharing of resources and expertise between researchers from different disciplines by connecting multiple geographically distributed sites for joint testing. As part of the UK-NEES project, a successful series of three-site distributed hybrid tests have been carried out between Bristol, Cambridge and Oxford Universities. The first known multi-site distributed hybrid tests in the UK, they connected via a dedicated fibre network, using custom software, the geotechnical centrifuge at Cambridge to structural components at Bristol and Oxford. These experiments were to prove the connection and useful insights were gained into the issues involved with this distributed environment. A wider aim is towards providing a flexible testing framework to facilitate multi-disciplinary experiments such as the accurate investigation of the influence of foundations on structural systems under seismic and other loading. Time scaling incompatibilities mean true seismic soil structure interaction using a centrifuge at g is not possible, though it is clear that distributed centrifuge testing can be valuable in other problems. Development is continuing to overcome the issues encountered, in order to improve future distributed tests in the UK and beyond.

Independence is elusive: set size effects on encoding precision in visual search.

Looking for a target in a visual scene becomes more difficult as the number of stimuli increases. In a signal detection theory view, this is due to the cumulative effect of noise in the encoding of the distractors, and potentially on top of that, to an increase of the noise (i.e., a decrease of precision) per stimulus with set size, reflecting divided attention. It has long been argued that human visual search behavior can be accounted for by the first factor alone. While such an account seems to be adequate for search tasks in which all distractors have the same, known feature value (i.e., are maximally predictable), we recently found a clear effect of set size on encoding precision when distractors are drawn from a uniform distribution (i.e., when they are maximally unpredictable). Here we interpolate between these two extreme cases to examine which of both conclusions holds more generally as distractor statistics are varied. In one experiment, we vary the level of distractor heterogeneity; in another we dissociate distractor homogeneity from predictability. In all conditions in both experiments, we found a strong decrease of precision with increasing set size, suggesting that precision being independent of set size is the exception rather than the rule.

Enhancing and developing the practical optimisation capabilities and intelligence of automatic design software

In the modern engineering design cycle the use of computational tools becomes a neces- sity. The complexity of the engineering systems under consideration for design increases dramatically as the demands for advanced and innovative design concepts and engineering products is expanding. At the same time the advancements in the available technology in terms of computational resources and power, as well as the intelligence of the design software, accommodate these demands and make them a viable approach towards the chal- lenge of real-world engineering problems. This class of design optimisation problems is by nature multi-disciplinary. In the present work we establish enhanced optimisation capabil- ities within the Nimrod/O tool for massively distributed execution of computational tasks through cluster and computational grid resources, and develop the potential to combine and benefit from all the possible available technological advancements, both software and hardware. We develop the interface between a Free Form Deformation geometry manage- ment in-house code with the 2D airfoil aerodynamic efficiency evaluation tool XFoil, and the well established multi-objective heuristic optimisation algorithm NSGA-II. A simple airfoil design problem has been defined to demonstrate the functionality of the design sys- tem, but also to accommodate a framework for future developments and testing with other state-of-the-art optimisation algorithms such as the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) and the Multi-Objective Tabu Search (MOTS) techniques. Ultimately, heav- ily computationally expensive industrial design cases can be realised within the presented framework that could not be investigated before. © 2012 by the authors. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Enhancing and developing the practical optimisation capabilities and intelligence of automatic design software

In the modern engineering design cycle the use of computational tools becomes a necessity. The complexity of the engineering systems under consideration for design increases dramatically as the demands for advanced and innovative design concepts and engineering products is expanding. At the same time the advancements in the available technology in terms of computational resources and power, as well as the intelligence of the design software, accommodate these demands and make them a viable approach towards the challenge of real-world engineering problems. This class of design optimisation problems is by nature multi-disciplinary. In the present work we establish enhanced optimisation capabilities within the Nimrod/O tool for massively distributed execution of computational tasks through cluster and computational grid resources, and develop the potential to combine and benefit from all the possible available technological advancements, both software and hardware. We develop the interface between a Free Form Deformation geometry management in-house code with the 2D airfoil aerodynamic efficiency evaluation tool XFoil, and the well established multi-objective heuristic optimisation algorithm NSGA-II. A simple airfoil design problem has been defined to demonstrate the functionality of the design system, but also to accommodate a framework for future developments and testing with other state-of-the-art optimisation algorithms such as the Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) and the Multi-Objective Tabu Search (MOTS) techniques. Ultimately, heavily computationally expensive industrial design cases can be realised within the presented framework that could not be investigated before. ©2012 AIAA.