Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Primary antibody deficiency and diagnostic delay.

AIMS: To assess the occurrence of diagnostic delay in primary antibody deficiency in the period 1989-2002, since a similar study in 1989, and to assess the impact of UK national guidelines communicated in 1995. METHODS: A retrospective case note review was performed of 89 consecutive patients with antibody deficiency referred to a regional referral centre for clinical immunology in north west England and north Wales. The delay in diagnosis and the estimated resulting morbidity in terms of infections were assessed. RESULTS: Fifty six of the 89 patients experienced delay in diagnosis. The overall median delay was 2 years (mean, 4.4), resulting in substantial morbidity (equivalent to two major infections and one minor infection). This shows a moderate improvement since the previous study in 1989 and since the introduction of UK national guidelines in 1995. Respiratory infections are the most frequent presenting infections, and respiratory physicians the most common source of referral. CONCLUSIONS: There is still considerable delay in the diagnosis of primary antibody deficiency, but the data suggest an improvement in practice since the previous study in 1989 and the distribution of national guidelines in 1995.