Robust modelling of noisy ARMA signals

In this paper methods are developed for enhancement and analysis of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) signals observed in additive noise which can be represented as mixtures of heavy-tailed non-Gaussian sources and a Gaussian background component. Such models find application in systems such as atmospheric communications channels or early sound recordings which are prone to intermittent impulse noise. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques are applied to the joint problem of signal extraction, model parameter estimation and detection of impulses within a fully Bayesian framework. The algorithms require only simple linear iterations for all of the unknowns, including the MA parameters, which is in contrast with existing MCMC methods for analysis of noise-free ARMA models. The methods are illustrated using synthetic data and noise-degraded sound recordings.

Time-resolved volumetric measurement of fine-scale coherent structures in turbulence.

We present full volumetric (three-dimensional) time-resolved (+one-dimensional) measurements of the velocity field in a large water mixing tank, allowing us to assess spatial and temporal rotational energy (enstrophy) and turbulent energy dissipation intermittency. In agreement with previous studies, highly intermittent behavior is observed, with intense coherent flow structures clustering in the periphery of larger vortices. However, further to previous work the full volumetric measurements allow us to separate out the effects of advection from other effects, elucidating not only their topology but also the evolution of these intense events, through the local balance of stretching and diffusion. These findings contribute toward a better understanding of the intermittency phenomenon, which should pave the way for more accurate models of the small-scale motions based on an understanding of the underlying flow physics.

Intermittency transport modeling of separated flow transition

An intermittency transport model is proposed for modeling separated-flow transition. The model is based on earlier work on prediction of attached flow bypass transition and is applied for the first time to model transition in a separation bubble at various degrees of free-stream turbulence. The model has been developed so that it takes into account the entrainment of the surrounding fluid. Experimental investigations suggest that it is this phenomena which ultimately determines the extent of the separation bubble. Transition onset is determined via a boundary layer correlation based on momentum thickness at the point of separation. The intermittent flow characteristic of the transition process is modeled via an intermittency transport equation. This accounts for both normal and streamwise variation of intermittency and hence models the entrainment of surrounding flow in a more accurate manner than alternative prescribed intermittency models. The model has been validated against the well established T3L semicircular leading edge flat plate test case for three different degrees of free-stream turbulence characteristic of turbomachinery blade applications.

Synchronization in climate dynamics and other extended systems

Synchronization is now well established as representing coherent behaviour between two or more otherwise autonomous nonlinear systems subject to some degree of coupling. Such behaviour has mainly been studied to date, however, in relatively low-dimensional discrete systems or networks. But the possibility of similar kinds of behaviour in continuous or extended spatiotemporal systems has many potential practical implications, especially in various areas of geophysics. We review here a range of cyclically varying phenomena within the Earth's climate system for which there may be some evidence or indication of the possibility of synchronized behaviour, albeit perhaps imperfect or highly intermittent. The exploitation of this approach is still at a relatively early stage within climate science and dynamics, in which the climate system is regarded as a hierarchy of many coupled sub-systems with complex nonlinear feedbacks and forcings. The possibility of synchronization between climate oscillations (global or local) and a predictable external forcing raises important questions of how models of such phenomena can be validated and verified, since the resulting response may be relatively insensitive to the details of the model being synchronized. The use of laboratory analogues may therefore have an important role to play in the study of natural systems that can only be observed and for which controlled experiments are impossible. We go on to demonstrate that synchronization can be observed in the laboratory, even in weakly coupled fluid dynamical systems that may serve as direct analogues of the behaviour of major components of the Earth's climate system. The potential implications and observability of these effects in the long-term climate variability of the Earth is further discussed. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Electricity Storage Using a Thermal Storage Scheme

The increasing use of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation, many of which have an unpredictably intermittent nature, will inevitably lead to a greater demand for large-scale electricity storage schemes. For example, the expanding fraction of electricity produced by wind turbines will require either backup or storage capacity to cover extended periods of wind lull. This paper describes a recently proposed storage scheme, referred to here as Pumped Thermal Storage (PTS), and which is based on "sensible heat" storage in large thermal reservoirs. During the charging phase, the system effectively operates as a high temperature-ratio heat pump, extracting heat from a cold reservoir and delivering heat to a hot one. In the discharge phase the processes are reversed and it operates as a heat engine. The round- trip efficiency is limited only by process irreversibilities (as opposed to Second Law limitations on the coefficient of performance and the thermal efficiency of the heat pump and heat engine respectively). PTS is currently being developed in both France and England. In both cases, the schemes operate on the Joule-Brayton (gas turbine) cycle, using argon as the working fluid. However, the French scheme proposes the use of turbomachinery for compression and expansion, whereas for that being developed in England reciprocating devices are proposed. The current paper focuses on the impact of the various process irreversibilities on the thermodynamic round-trip efficiency of the scheme. Consideration is given to compression and expansion losses and pressure losses (in pipe-work, valves and thermal reservoirs); heat transfer related irreversibility in the thermal reservoirs is discussed but not included in the analysis. Results are presented demonstrating how the various loss parameters and operating conditions influence the overall performance.

Thermodynamic analysis of pumped thermal electricity storage

The increasing use of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation, many of which have an unpredictably intermittent nature, will inevitably lead to a greater need for electricity storage. Although there are many existing and emerging storage technologies, most have limitations in terms of geographical constraints, high capital cost or low cycle life, and few are of sufficient scale (in terms of both power and storage capacity) for integration at the transmission and distribution levels. This paper is concerned with a relatively new concept which will be referred to here as Pumped Thermal Electricity Storage (PTES), and which may be able to make a significant contribution towards future storage needs. During charge, PTES makes use of a high temperature-ratio heat pump to convert electrical energy into thermal energy which is stored as ‘sensible heat’ in two thermal reservoirs, one hot and one cold. When required, the thermal energy is then converted back to electricity by effectively running the heat pump backwards as a heat engine. The paper focuses on thermodynamic aspects of PTES, including energy and power density, and the various sources of irreversibility and their impact on round-trip efficiency.

X-ray observation of micro-failures in granular piles approaching an avalanche

An X-ray imaging technique is used to probe the stability of 3-dimensional granular packs in a slowly rotating drum. Well before the surface reaches the avalanche angle, we observe intermittent plastic events associated with collective rearrangements of the grains located in the vicinity of the free surface. The energy released by these discrete events grows as the system approaches the avalanche threshold. By testing various preparation methods, we show that the pre-avalanche dynamics is not solely controlled by the difference between the free surface inclination and the avalanche angle. As a consequence, the measure of the pre-avalanche dynamics is unlikely to serve as a tool for predicting macroscopic avalanches.

Probing the location of displayed cytochrome b562 on amyloid by scanning tunnelling microscopy.

Amyloid fibres displaying cytochrome b562 were probed using scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) in vacuo. The cytochromes are electron transfer proteins containing a haem cofactor and could, in principle, mediate electron transfer between the tip and the gold substrate. If the core fibres were insulating and electron transfer within the 3D haem network was detected, then the electron transport properties of the fibre could be controlled by genetic engineering. Three kinds of STM images were obtained. At a low bias (<1.5 V) the fibres appeared as regions of low conductivity with no evidence of cytochrome mediated electron transfer. At a high bias, stable peaks in tunnelling current were observed for all three fibre species containing haem and one species of fibre that did not contain haem. In images of this kind, some of the current peaks were collinear and spaced around 10 nm apart over ranges longer than 100 nm, but background monomers complicate interpretation. Images of the third kind were rare (1 in 150 fibres); in these, fully conducting structures with the approximate dimensions of fibres were observed, suggesting the possibility of an intermittent conduction mechanism, for which a precedent exists in DNA. To test the conductivity, some fibres were immobilized with sputtered gold, and no evidence of conduction between the grains of gold was seen. In control experiments, a variation of monomeric cytochrome b562 was not detected by STM, which was attributed to low adhesion, whereas a monomeric multi-haem protein, GSU1996, was readily imaged. We conclude that the fibre superstructure may be intermittently conducting, that the cytochromes have been seen within the fibres and that they are too far apart for detectable current flow between sites to occur. We predict that GSU1996, being 10 nm long, is more likely to mediate successful electron transfer along the fibre as well as being more readily detectable when displayed from amyloid.

Decadal persistence of cycles in lava lake motion at Erebus volcano, Antarctica

Studies of Erebus volcano's active lava lake have shown that many of its observable properties (gas composition, surface motion and radiant heat output) exhibit cyclic behaviour with a period of ~10 min. We investigate the multi-year progression of the cycles in surface motion of the lake using an extended (but intermittent) dataset of thermal infrared images collected by the Mount Erebus Volcano Observatory between 2004 and 2011. Cycles with a period of ~5-18 min are found to be a persistent feature of the lake's behaviour and no obvious long-term change is observed despite variations in lake level and surface area. The times at which gas bubbles arrive at the lake's surface are found to be random with respect to the phase of the motion cycles, suggesting that the remarkable behaviour of the lake is governed by magma exchange rather than an intermittent flux of gases from the underlying magma reservoir. © 2014 The Authors.