Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections

This article investigates how to use UK probabilistic climate-change projections (UKCP09) in rigorous building energy analysis. Two office buildings (deep plan and shallow plan) are used as case studies to demonstrate the application of UKCP09. Three different methods for reducing the computational demands are explored: statistical reduction (Finkelstein-Schafer [F-S] statistics), simplification using degree-day theory and the use of metamodels. The first method, which is based on an established technique, can be used as reference because it provides the most accurate information. However, it is necessary to automatically choose weather files based on F-S statistic by using computer programming language because thousands of weather files created from UKCP09 weather generator need to be processed. A combination of the second (degree-day theory) and third method (metamodels) requires only a relatively small number of simulation runs, but still provides valuable information to further implement the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The article also demonstrates how grid computing can be used to speed up the calculation for many independent EnergyPlus models by harnessing the processing power of idle desktop computers. © 2011 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Synapses with short-term plasticity are optimal estimators of presynaptic membrane potentials.

The trajectory of the somatic membrane potential of a cortical neuron exactly reflects the computations performed on its afferent inputs. However, the spikes of such a neuron are a very low-dimensional and discrete projection of this continually evolving signal. We explored the possibility that the neuron's efferent synapses perform the critical computational step of estimating the membrane potential trajectory from the spikes. We found that short-term changes in synaptic efficacy can be interpreted as implementing an optimal estimator of this trajectory. Short-term depression arose when presynaptic spiking was sufficiently intense as to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimate; short-term facilitation reflected structural features of the statistics of the presynaptic neuron such as up and down states. Our analysis provides a unifying account of a powerful, but puzzling, form of plasticity.

Human muscle spindles act as forward sensory models.

Modern theories of motor control incorporate forward models that combine sensory information and motor commands to predict future sensory states. Such models circumvent unavoidable neural delays associated with on-line feedback control. Here we show that signals in human muscle spindle afferents during unconstrained wrist and finger movements predict future kinematic states of their parent muscle. Specifically, we show that the discharges of type Ia afferents are best correlated with the velocity of length changes in their parent muscles approximately 100-160 ms in the future and that their discharges vary depending on motor sequences in a way that cannot be explained by the state of their parent muscle alone. We therefore conclude that muscle spindles can act as "forward sensory models": they are affected both by the current state of their parent muscle and by efferent (fusimotor) control, and their discharges represent future kinematic states. If this conjecture is correct, then sensorimotor learning implies learning how to control not only the skeletal muscles but also the fusimotor system.

Opt-out options in new product co-development partnerships

We study three contractual arrangements—co-development, licensing, and co-development with opt-out options—for the joint development of new products between a small and financially constrained innovator firm and a large technology company, as in the case of a biotech innovator and a major pharma company. We formulate our arguments in the context of a two-stage model, characterized by technical risk and stochastically changing cost and revenue projections. The model captures the main disadvantages of traditional co-development and licensing arrangements: in co-development the small firm runs a risk of running out of capital as future costs rise, while licensing for milestone and royalty (M&R) payments, which eliminates the latter risk, introduces inefficiency, as profitable projects might be abandoned. Counter to intuition we show that the biotech's payoff in a licensing contract is not monotonically increasing in the M&R terms. We also show that an option clause in a co-development contract that gives the small firm the right but not the obligation to opt out of co-development and into a pre-agreed licensing arrangement avoids the problems associated with fully committed co-development or licensing: the probability that the small firm will run out of capital is greatly reduced or completely eliminated and profitable projects are never abandoned.

Silhouette-based object phenotype recognition using 3D shape priors

This paper tackles the novel challenging problem of 3D object phenotype recognition from a single 2D silhouette. To bridge the large pose (articulation or deformation) and camera viewpoint changes between the gallery images and query image, we propose a novel probabilistic inference algorithm based on 3D shape priors. Our approach combines both generative and discriminative learning. We use latent probabilistic generative models to capture 3D shape and pose variations from a set of 3D mesh models. Based on these 3D shape priors, we generate a large number of projections for different phenotype classes, poses, and camera viewpoints, and implement Random Forests to efficiently solve the shape and pose inference problems. By model selection in terms of the silhouette coherency between the query and the projections of 3D shapes synthesized using the galleries, we achieve the phenotype recognition result as well as a fast approximate 3D reconstruction of the query. To verify the efficacy of the proposed approach, we present new datasets which contain over 500 images of various human and shark phenotypes and motions. The experimental results clearly show the benefits of using the 3D priors in the proposed method over previous 2D-based methods. © 2011 IEEE.

Bayesian inference for multidimensional NMR image reconstruction

Reconstruction of an image from a set of projections has been adapted to generate multidimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra, which have discrete features that are relatively sparsely distributed in space. For this reason, a reliable reconstruction can be made from a small number of projections. This new concept is called Projection Reconstruction NMR (PR-NMR). In this paper, multidimensional NMR spectra are reconstructed by Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). This statistical method generates samples under the assumption that each peak consists of a small number of parameters: position of peak centres, peak amplitude, and peak width. In order to find the number of peaks and shape, RJMCMC has several moves: birth, death, merge, split, and invariant updating. The reconstruction schemes are tested on a set of six projections derived from the three-dimensional 700 MHz HNCO spectrum of a protein HasA.

Consensus under general convexity

A method is proposed to characterize contraction of a set through orthogonal projections. For discrete-time multi-agent systems, quantitative estimates of convergence (to a consensus) rate are provided by means of contracting convex sets. Required convexity for the sets that should include the values that the transition maps of agents take is considered in a more general sense than that of Euclidean geometry. © 2007 IEEE.

Self-organization of spinal reflexes involving homonymous, antagonist and synergistic interactions

Recent results in spinal research are challenging the historical view that the spinal reflexes are mostly hardwired and fixed behaviours. In previous work we have shown that three of the simplest spinal reflexes could be self-organised in an agonist-antagonist pair of muscles. The simplicity of these reflexes is given from the fact that they entail at most one interneuron mediating the connectivity between afferent inputs and efferent outputs. These reflexes are: the Myotatic, the Reciprocal Inibition and the Reverse Myotatic reflexes. In this paper we apply our framework to a simulated 2D leg model actuated by six muscles (mono- and bi-articular). Our results show that the framework is successful in learning most of the spinal reflex circuitry as well as the corresponding behaviour in the more complicated muscle arrangement. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.