Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall-runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions. © 2011 Copyright IAHS Press.

Discovery of a new 2.3 s isomer in neutron-rich 174Tm

A new program of K-isomer research has been initiated with the 8π spectrometer sited at the ISAC facility of TRIUMF. We discuss in this paper the identification of a new 2.3 s isomer in 174Tm and its implications. © Società Italiana di Fisica / Springer-Verlag 2005.

Biomimetic calcium carbonate-gelatin composites as a model system for eggshell mineralization

The composite nature of mineralized natural materials is achieved through both the microstructural inclusion of an organic component and an overall microstructure that is controlled by templating onto organic macromolecules. A modification of an existing laboratory technique is developed for the codeposition of a CaCO3-gelatin composite with a controllable organic content. First, calibration curves are developed to determine the organic content of a CaCO3-gelatin composite from infrared spectra. Second, a CaCO3-gelatin composite is deposited on either glass coverslips or demineralized eggshell membranes using an automated alternating soaking process. Electron microscopy images and use of the infrared spectra calibration curves show that by altering the amount of gelatin in the ionic growth solutions, the final organic component of the mineral can be regulated over the range of 1-10%, similar to that of natural eggshell. © 2012 Materials Research Societ.

Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.