Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Manufacturing dish shaped rings on radial-axial ring rolling mills

Ring rolling is an established method to produce seamless rings of different cross-sectional geometries. For dish shaped rings, there are applications in different areas such as offshore, aeronautics or the energy sector. At the moment, dish shaped rings are produced by machining of rings with rectangular shaped cross section, by (open die) hollow forging on a conical mandrel or by using shaped ring rolling tools. These ways of manufacturing have the disadvantage of high material waste, additional costs for special tools, long process time and limited or inflexible geometries. Therefore, the manufacturing of dish shaped rings on conventional radial-axial ring rolling mills would expand the range of products for ring producers. The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of an alternative to the current manufacturing processes, without requiring additional tooling and material costs. Therefore, the intended formation of dish shaped rings-previously regarded as a form error-is investigated. Based on an analysis of geometrical requirements and metal flow mechanisms, a rolling strategy is presented, causing dishing and ring climbing by a large height reduction of the ring. Using this rolling strategy dish shaped rings with dishing angles up to 18° were achieved. In addition to the experiments finite element method (FEM)-simulations of the process have been successfully conducted, in order to analyze the local strain evolution. However, when the contact between ring and main roll is lost in the process the ring starts to oscillate around the mandrel and neither dishing nor ring climbing is observed. © 2013 German Academic Society for Production Engineering (WGP).