Articulating current service development practices: a qualitative analysis of eleven mental health projects.

BACKGROUND: The utilisation of good design practices in the development of complex health services is essential to improving quality. Healthcare organisations, however, are often seriously out of step with modern design thinking and practice. As a starting point to encourage the uptake of good design practices, it is important to understand the context of their intended use. This study aims to do that by articulating current health service development practices. METHODS: Eleven service development projects carried out in a large mental health service were investigated through in-depth interviews with six operation managers. The critical decision method in conjunction with diagrammatic elicitation was used to capture descriptions of these projects. Stage-gate design models were then formed to visually articulate, classify and characterise different service development practices. RESULTS: Projects were grouped into three categories according to design process patterns: new service introduction and service integration; service improvement; service closure. Three common design stages: problem exploration, idea generation and solution evaluation - were then compared across the design process patterns. Consistent across projects were a top-down, policy-driven approach to exploration, underexploited idea generation and implementation-based evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insight into where and how good design practices can contribute to the improvement of current service development practices. Specifically, the following suggestions for future service development practices are made: genuine user needs analysis for exploration; divergent thinking and innovative culture for idea generation; and fail-safe evaluation prior to implementation. Better training for managers through partnership working with design experts and researchers could be beneficial.

Numerical stability of the predictor-corrector method in Monte Carlo burnup calculations of critical reactors

Monte Carlo burnup codes use various schemes to solve the coupled criticality and burnup equations. Previous studies have shown that the simplest methods, such as the beginning-of-step and middle-of-step constant flux approximations, are numerically unstable in fuel cycle calculations of critical reactors. Here we show that even the predictor-corrector methods that are implemented in established Monte Carlo burnup codes can be numerically unstable in cycle calculations of large systems. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The cross-entropy method for blind multiuser detection

We consider the problem of blind multiuser detection. We adopt a Bayesian approach where unknown parameters are considered random and integrated out. Computing the maximum a posteriori estimate of the input data sequence requires solving a combinatorial optimization problem. We propose here to apply the Cross-Entropy method recently introduced by Rubinstein. The performance of cross-entropy is compared to Markov chain Monte Carlo. For similar Bit Error Rate performance, we demonstrate that Cross-Entropy outperforms a generic Markov chain Monte Carlo method in terms of operation time.

Bayesian model selection for time series using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present a stochastic simulation technique for subset selection in time series models, based on the use of indicator variables with the Gibbs sampler within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. As an example, the method is applied to the selection of subset linear AR models, in which only significant lags are included. Joint sampling of the indicators and parameters is found to speed convergence. We discuss the possibility of model mixing where the model is not well determined by the data, and the extension of the approach to include non-linear model terms.

Blind equalization and sequence estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

This paper discusses the problem of restoring a digital input signal that has been degraded by an unknown FIR filter in noise, using the Gibbs sampler. A method for drawing a random sample of a sequence of bits is presented; this is shown to have faster convergence than a scheme by Chen and Li, which draws bits independently. ©1998 IEEE.

Critical angle laser refractometer

A simple laser refractometer based on the detection of the critical angle for liquids is presented. The calibrated refractometer presents up to 0.000 11 of uncertainty when the refractive index is in the range between 1.300 00 and 1.340 00. The experimental setup is easy to construct and the material needed is available at most optics laboratories. The calibration method is simple and can be used in other devices. The refractive index measurements in aqueous solutions of sodium chloride were carried out to test the device and a linear dependence between the refractive index and the salt concentration was found. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Stress-strain response of hydrate-bearing sands: Numerical study using discrete element method simulations

Gas hydrate is a crystalline solid found within marine and subpermafrost sediments. While the presence of hydrates can have a profound effect on sediment properties, the stress-strain behavior of hydrate-bearing sediments is poorly understood due to inherent limitations in laboratory testing. In this study, we use numerical simulations to improve our understanding of the mechanical behavior of hydrate-bearing sands. The hydrate mass is simulated as either small randomly distributed bonded grains or as "ripened hydrate" forming patchy saturation, whereby sediment clusters with 100% pore-filled hydrate saturation are distributed within a hydrate-free sediment. Simulation results reveal that reduced sand porosity and higher hydrate saturation cause an increase in stiffness, strength, and dilative tendency, and the critical state line shifts toward higher void ratio and higher shear strength. In particular, the critical state friction angle increases in sands with patchy saturation, while the apparent cohesion is affected the most when the hydrate mass is distributed in pores. Sediments with patchy hydrate distribution exhibit a slightly lower strength than sediments with randomly distributed hydrate. Finally, hydrate dissociation under drained conditions leads to volume contraction and/or stress relaxation, and pronounced shear strains can develop if the hydrate-bearing sand is subjected to deviatoric loading during dissociation.

Safety implications of reactivity variations in fast thorium ADSRs

Nuclear power generation offers a reliable, low-impact and large-scale alternative to fossil fuels. However, concerns exist over the safety and sustainability of this method of power production, and it remains unpopular with some governments and pressure groups throughout the world. Fast thorium fuelled accelerator-driven sub-critical reactors (ADSRs) offer a possible route to providing further re-assurance regarding these concerns on account of their properties of enhanced safety through sub-critical operation combined with reduced actinide waste production from the thorium fuel source. The appropriate sub-critical margin at which these reactors should operate is the subject of continued debate. Commercial interests favour a small sub-critical margin in order to minimise the size of the accelerator needed for a given power output, whilst enhanced safety would be better satisfied through larger sub-critical margins to further minimise the possibility of a criticality excursion. Against this background, this paper examines some of the issues affecting reactor safety inherent within thorium fuel sources resulting from the essential Th90232→Th90233→Pa91233→U92233 breeding chain. Differences in the decay half-lives and fission and capture cross-sections of 233Pa and 233U can result in significant changes in the reactivity of the fuel following changes in the reactor power. Reactor operation is represented using a homogeneous lumped fast reactor model that can simulate the evolution of actinides and reactivity variations to first-order accuracy. The reactivity of the fuel is shown to increase significantly following a loss of power to the accelerator. Where the sub-critical operating margins are small this can result in a criticality excursion unless some form of additional intervention is made, for example through the insertion of control rods. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of second generation, high-temperature superconducting coils: Determination of critical current

This paper presents the modeling of second generation (2 G) high-temperature superconducting (HTS) pancake coils using finite element method. The axial symmetric model can be used to calculate current and magnetic field distribution inside the coil. The anisotropic characteristics of 2 G tapes are included in the model by direct interpolation. The model is validated by comparing to experimental results. We use the model to study critical currents of 2 G coils and find that 100μV/m is too high a criterion to determine long-term operating current of the coils, because the innermost turns of a coil will, due to the effect of local magnetic field, reach their critical current much earlier than outer turns. Our modeling shows that an average voltage criterion of 20μV/m over the coil corresponds to the point at which the innermost turns' electric field exceeds 100μV/m. So 20μV/m is suggested to be the critical current criterion of the HTS coil. The influence of background field on the coil critical current is also studied in the paper. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

Proposal of a method to clarify and enhance decision-making at the front-end of innovation

Decision-making at the front-end of innovation is critical for the success of companies. This paper presents a simple visual method, called DMCA (Decision-Making Criteria Assessment), which was created to clarify and improve decision-making at the front-end of innovation. The method maps the uncertainty of project information and importance of decision criteria, compiling a measure that indicates whether the decision is highly uncertain, what information interferes with it, and what criteria are actually being considered. The DMCA method was tested in two projects that faced decision-making issues, and the results confirm the benefits of using this method in decision-making at the front-end. © 2012 IEEE.

A critical analysis of loudness calculation methods

The physical meaning and methods of determining loudness were reviewed Loudness is a psychoacoustic metric which closely corresponds to the perceived intensity of a sound stimulus. It can be determined by graphical procedures, numerical methods, or by commercial software. These methods typically require the consideration of the 1/3 octave band spectrum of the sound of interest. The sounds considered in this paper are a 1 kHz tone and pink noise. The loudness of these sounds was calculated in eight ways using different combinations of input data and calculation methods. All the methods considered are based on Zwicker loudness. It was determined that, of the combinations considered, only the commercial software dBSonic and the loudness calculation procedure detailed in DIN 45631 using 1/3 octave band levels filtered using ANSI S1.11-1986 gave the correct values of loudness for a 1 kHz tone. Comparing the results between the sources also demonstrated the difference between sound pressure level and loudness. It was apparent that the calculation and filtering methods must be considered together, as a given calculation will produce different results for different 1/3 octave band input. In the literature reviewed, no reference provided a guide to the selection of the type of filtering that should be used in conjunction with the loudness computation method.

A method for analysing operational complexity in supply chains

This paper proposes a method for analysing the operational complexity in supply chains by using an entropic measure based on information theory. The proposed approach estimates the operational complexity at each stage of the supply chain and analyses the changes between stages. In this paper a stage is identified by the exchange of data and/or material. Through analysis the method identifies the stages where the operational complexity is both generated and propagated (exported, imported, generated or absorbed). Central to the method is the identification of a reference point within the supply chain. This is where the operational complexity is at a local minimum along the data transfer stages. Such a point can be thought of as a 'sink' for turbulence generated in the supply chain. Where it exists, it has the merit of stabilising the supply chain by attenuating uncertainty. However, the location of the reference point is also a matter of choice. If the preferred location is other than the current one, this is a trigger for management action. The analysis can help decide appropriate remedial action. More generally, the approach can assist logistics management by highlighting problem areas. An industrial application is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method. © 2013 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.