Innovation, the diesel engine and vehicle markets: Evidence from OECD engine patents

This paper uses a patent data set to identify factors fostering innovation of diesel engines between 1974 and 2010 in the OECD region. The propensity of engine producers to innovate grew by 1.9 standard deviations after the expansion of the car market, by 0.7 standard deviations following a shift in the EU fuel economy standard, and by 0.23 standard deviations. The propensity to develop emissions control techniques was positively influenced by pollution control laws introduced in Japan, in the US, and in the EU, but not with the expansion of the car market. Furthermore, a decline in loan rates stimulated the propensity to develop emissions control techniques, which were simultaneously crowded out by increases in publicly-funded transport research and development. Innovation activities in engine efficiency are explained by market size, loan rates and by (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) diesel prices, inclusive of taxes. Price effects on innovation, outweigh that of the US corporate average fuel economy standards. Innovation is also positively influenced by past transport research and development. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability

We quantify the conditions that might trigger wide spread adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to support energy policy. Empirical review shows that early adopters are heterogeneous motivated by financial benefits, environmental appeal, new technology, and vehicle reliability. A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model is used to assess consumer heterogeneity for early and mass market adopters. For early adopters full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are competitive but unable to surpass diesels or hybrids due to purchase price premium and lack of charging availability. For mass adoption, simulations indicate that if the purchase price premium of a BEV closes to within 20% of an in-class internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, combined with a 60% increase in refuelling availability relative to the incumbent system, BEVs become competitive. But this depends on a mass market that values the fuel economy and CO2 reduction benefits associated with BEVs. We also find that the largest influence on early adoption is financial benefit rather than pro-environmental behaviour suggesting that AFVs should be marketed by appealing to economic benefits combined with pro-environmental behaviour to motivate adoption. Monte Carlo simulations combined with scenarios can give insight into diffusion dynamics for other energy demand-side technologies. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Implications of local lifecycle analyses and low carbon fuel standard design on gasohol transportation fuels

State and regional policies, such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFSs), increasingly mandate that transportation fuels be examined according to their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We investigate whether such policies benefit from determining fuel carbon intensities (FCIs) locally to account for variations in fuel production and to stimulate improvements in FCI. In this study, we examine the FCI of transportation fuels on a lifecycle basis within a specific state, Minnesota, and compare the results to FCIs using national averages. Using data compiled from 18 refineries over an 11-year period, we find that ethanol production is highly variable, resulting in a 42% difference between carbon intensities. Historical data suggests that lower FCIs are possible through incremental improvements in refining efficiency and the use of biomass for processing heat. Stochastic modeling of the corn ethanol FCI shows that gains in certainty due to knowledge of specific refinery inputs are overwhelmed by uncertainty in parameters external to the refiner, including impacts of fertilization and land use change. The LCA results are incorporated into multiple policy scenarios to demonstrate the effect of policy configurations on the use of alternative fuels. These results provide a contrast between volumetric mandates and LCFSs. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

BWR fuel design options for self-sustainable Th-233U fuel cycle

In this work, we investigate a number of fuel assembly design options for a BWR core operating in a closed self-sustainable Th-233U fuel cycle. The designs rely on axially heterogeneous fuel assembly structure in order to improve fertile to fissile conversion ratio. One of the main assumptions of the current study was to restrict the fuel assembly geometry to a single axial fissile zone "sandwiched" between two fertile blanket zones. The main objective was to study the effect of the most important design parameters, such as dimensions of fissile and fertile zones and average void fraction, on the net breeding of 233U. The main design challenge in this respect is that the fuel breeding potential is at odds with axial power peaking and therefore limits the maximum achievable core power rating. The calculations were performed with BGCore system, which consists of MCNP code coupled with fuel depletion and thermo-hydraulic feedback modules. A single 3-dimensional fuel assembly with reflective radial boundaries was modeled applying simplified restrictions on maximum central line fuel temperature and Critical Power Ratio. It was found that axially heterogeneous fuel assembly design with single fissile zone can potentially achieve net breeding. In this case however, the achievable core power density is roughly one third of the reference BWR core.

Neutronic optimization in high conversion Th-233U fuel assembly with simulated annealing

This paper reports on fuel design optimization of a PWR operating in a self sustainable Th-233U fuel cycle. Monte Carlo simulated annealing method was used in order to identify the fuel assembly configuration with the most attractive breeding performance. In previous studies, it was shown that breeding may be achieved by employing heterogeneous Seed-Blanket fuel geometry. The arrangement of seed and blanket pins within the assemblies may be determined by varying the designed parameters based on basic reactor physics phenomena which affect breeding. However, the amount of free parameters may still prove to be prohibitively large in order to systematically explore the design space for optimal solution. Therefore, the Monte Carlo annealing algorithm for neutronic optimization is applied in order to identify the most favorable design. The objective of simulated annealing optimization is to find a set of design parameters, which maximizes some given performance function (such as relative period of net breeding) under specified constraints (such as fuel cycle length). The first objective of the study was to demonstrate that the simulated annealing optimization algorithm will lead to the same fuel pins arrangement as was obtained in the previous studies which used only basic physics phenomena as guidance for optimization. In the second part of this work, the simulated annealing method was used to optimize fuel pins arrangement in much larger fuel assembly, where the basic physics intuition does not yield clearly optimal configuration. The simulated annealing method was found to be very efficient in selecting the optimal design in both cases. In the future, this method will be used for optimization of fuel assembly design with larger number of free parameters in order to determine the most favorable trade-off between the breeding performance and core average power density.

Comparison of square and hexagonal fuel lattices for high conversion PWRs

This paper reports on an investigation into fuel design choices of a pressurized water reactor operating in a self-sustainable Th- 233U fuel cycle. In order to evaluate feasibility of this concept, two types of fuel assembly lattices were considered: square and hexagonal. The hexagonal lattice may offer some advantages over the square one. For example, the fertile blanket fuel can be packed more tightly reducing the blanket volume fraction in the core and potentially allowing to achieve higher core average power density. The calculations were carried out with Monte-Carlo based BGCore code system and the results were compared to those obtained with Serpent Monte-Carlo code and deterministic transport code BOXER. One of the major design challenges associated with the SB concept is high power peaking due to the high concentration of fissile material in the seed region. The second objective of this work is to estimate the maximum achievable core power density by evaluation of limiting thermal hydraulic parameters. The analysis showed that both fuel assembly designs have a potential of achieving net breeding. Although hexagonal lattice was found to be somewhat more favorable because it allows achieving higher power density, while having breeding performance comparable to the square lattice case. © Carl Hanser Verlag München.