An approach to scenario analysis of the sustainability of an industrial sector applied to clothing and textiles in the UK

Companies aiming to be 'sustainability leaders' in their sector and governments wanting to support their ambitions need a means to assess the changes required to make a significant difference in the impact of their whole sector. Previous work on scenario analysis/scenario planning demonstrates extensive developments and applications, but as yet few attempts to integrate the 'triple bottom line' concerns of sustainability into scenario planning exercises. This paper, therefore, presents a methodology for scenario analysis of large change to an entire sector. The approach includes calculation of a 'triple bottom line graphic equaliser' to allow exploration and evaluation of the trade-offs between economic, environmental and social impacts. The methodology is applied to the UK's clothing and textiles sector, and results from the study of the sector are summarised. In reflecting on the specific study, some suggestions are made about future application of a similar methodology, including a template of candidate solutions that may lead to significant reduction in impacts. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expanding adoption of drinking water treatment systems in developing countries: a case study from Tamil Nadu, India

Household-level water treatment and safe storage systems (HWTS) are simple, local, user-friendly, and low cost options to improve drinking water quality at the point of use. However, despite conclusive evidence of the health and economic benefits of HWTS, and promotion efforts in over 50 countries in the past 20 years, implementation outcomes have been slow, reaching only 5-10 million regular users. This study attempts to understand the barriers and drivers affecting HWTS implementation. Using a case study example of a biosand filter program in southern India, system dynamics modelling is shown to be a useful tool to map the inter-relationships of different critical factors and to understand the dissemination dynamics. It is found that the co-existence of expanding quickly and achieving financial sustainability appears to be difficult to achieve under the current program structure.

Using strong sustainability to optimize electricity generation fuel mixes

This work represents a contribution to the field of sustainable electricity system design by using an optimization tool to specify the final mix composition, subject to the constraints of: emissions that are within the biocapacity of the region; a diverse and robust electricity supply system; and supply that at least meets current demand. The 25-country European Union (EU-25) is used as a case study. All the goals, save diversity, can be met by re-structuring the current fuel mix, thus maintaining current consumption levels. The diversity target is only met when consumption is reduced by 10-15% and the constraint on maximum material throughput is relaxed. Re-structuring the mix and reducing consumption is insufficient to achieve a sustainable EU carbon footprint. However, the solution proposed singlehandedly allows the EU to meet its Kyoto emissions target as well as its 2007 policy of a reduction of 20% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

Climate resilience of schools: a case study

Social and political concerns are frequently reflected in the design of school buildings, often in turn leading to the development of technical innovations. One example is a recurrent concern about the physical health of the nation, which has at several points over the last century prompted new design approaches to natural light and ventilation. The most critical concern of the current era is the global, rather than the indoor, environment. The resultant political focus on mitigating climate change has resulted in new regulations, and in turn considerable technical changes in building design and construction. The vanguard of this movement has again been in school buildings, set the highest targets for reducing operational carbon by the previous Government. The current austerity measures have moved the focus to the refurbishment and retrofit of existing buildings, in order to bring them up to the exacting new standards. Meanwhile there is little doubt that climate change is happening already, and that the impacts will be considerable. Climate scientists have increasing confidence in their predictions for the future; if today’s buildings are to be resilient to these changes, building designers will need to understand and design for the predicted climates in order to continue to provide comfortable and healthy spaces through the lifetimes of the buildings. This paper describes the decision processes, and the planned design measures, for adapting an existing school for future climates. The project is at St Faith’s School in Cambridge, and focuses on three separate buildings: a large Victorian block built as a substantial domestic dwelling in 1885, a smaller single storey 1970s block with a new extension, and an as-yet unbuilt single storey block designed to passivhaus principles and using environmentally friendly materials. The implications of climate change have been considered for the three particular issues of comfort, construction, and water, as set out in the report on Design for Future Climate: opportunities for adaptation in the built environment (Gething, 2010). The adaptation designs aim to ensure each of the three very different buildings remains fit for purpose throughout the 21st century, continuing to provide a healthy environment for the children. A forth issue, the reduction of carbon and the mitigation of other negative environmental impacts of the construction work, is also a fundamental aim for the school and the project team. Detailed modelling of both the operational and embodied energy and carbon of the design options is therefore being carried out, in order that the whole life carbon costs of the adaptation design options may be minimised. The project has been funded by the Technology Strategy Board as part of the Design for Future Climates programme; the interdisciplinary team includes the designers working on the current school building projects and the school bursar, supported by researchers from the University of Cambridge Centre for Sustainable Development. It is hoped that lessons from the design process, as well as the solutions themselves, will be transferable to other buildings in similar climatic regions.