Generalised Wishart Processes

We introduce a stochastic process with Wishart marginals: the generalised Wishart process (GWP). It is a collection of positive semi-definite random matrices indexed by any arbitrary dependent variable. We use it to model dynamic (e.g. time varying) covariance matrices. Unlike existing models, it can capture a diverse class of covariance structures, it can easily handle missing data, the dependent variable can readily include covariates other than time, and it scales well with dimension; there is no need for free parameters, and optional parameters are easy to interpret. We describe how to construct the GWP, introduce general procedures for inference and predictions, and show that it outperforms its main competitor, multivariate GARCH, even on financial data that especially suits GARCH. We also show how to predict the mean of a multivariate process while accounting for dynamic correlations.

Improving productivity - Opening the black box

Hourly productivity levels in the UK still remain behind those in some competitor countries. The government devotes much policy attention to enhancing productivity and continues to emphasise its five drivers - investment, innovation, skills, enterprise, and competition. This article argues that it is investment broadly defined that is the key to sustained productivity improvement. The emphasis should be on improving productivity simultaneously with improving the quality of production. Only thus will the gains be widely shared. In achieving these aims there are two prerequisites for policy-makers. The first is to ensure better coordination of policy than appears to be currently achieved by the present departmental structures in Whitehall. The second is to recognize fully the long and complex chain of causation that can be triggered by pulling on one policy lever. Such complexity can only be fully understood by more research on what actually goes on inside the black box of the organization. © 2006 Oxford University Press.

Microheterogeneous Thoria-Urania Fuels for Pressurized Water Reactors

A thorium-based fuel cycle for light water reactors will reduce the plutonium generation rate and enhance the proliferation resistance of the spent fuel. However, priming the thorium cycle with ²³⁵U is necessary, and the ²³⁵U fraction in the uranium must be limited to below 20% to minimize proliferation concerns. Thus, a once-through thorium-uranium dioxide (ThO2-UO2) fuel cycle of no less than 25% uranium becomes necessary for normal pressurized water reactor (PWR) operating cycle lengths. Spatial separation of the uranium and thorium parts of the fuel can improve the achievable burnup of the thorium-uranium fuel designs through more effective breeding of ²³³U from the ²³²Th. Focus is on microheterogeneous fuel designs for PWRs, where the spatial separation of the uranium and thorium is on the order of a few millimetres to a few centimetres, including duplex pellet, axially microheterogeneous fuel, and a checkerboard of uranium and thorium pins. A special effort was made to understand the underlying reactor physics mechanisms responsible for enhancing the achievable burnup at spatial separation of the two fuels. The neutron spectral shift was identified as the primary reason for the enhancement of burnup capabilities. Mutual resonance shielding of uranium and thorium is also a factor; however, it is small in magnitude. It is shown that the microheterogeneous fuel can achieve higher burnups, by up to 15%, than the reference all-uranium fuel. However, denaturing of the ²³³U in the thorium portion of the fuel with small amounts of uranium significantly impairs this enhancement. The denaturing is also necessary to meet conventional PWR thermal limits by improving the power share of the thorium region at the beginning of fuel irradiation. Meeting thermal-hydraulic design requirements by some of the microheterogeneous fuels while still meeting or exceeding the burnup of the all-uranium case is shown to be potentially feasible. However, the large power imbalance between the uranium and thorium regions creates several design challenges, such as higher fission gas release and cladding temperature gradients. A reduction of plutonium generation by a factor of 3 in comparison with all-uranium PWR fuel using the same initial ²³⁵U content was estimated. In contrast to homogeneously mixed U-Th fuel, microheterogeneous fuel has a potential for economic performance comparable to the all-UO2 fuel provided that the microheterogeneous fuel incremental manufacturing costs are negligibly small.