Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Award Winner in the Young Investigator Category, 2014 Society for Biomaterials Annual Meeting and Exposition, Denver, Colorado, April 16-19, 2014: Periodically perforated core-shell collagen biomaterials balance cell infiltration, bioactivity, and mechanical properties.

Orthopedic tissue engineering requires biomaterials with robust mechanics as well as adequate porosity and permeability to support cell motility, proliferation, and new extracellular matrix (ECM) synthesis. While collagen-glycosaminoglycan (CG) scaffolds have been developed for a range of tissue engineering applications, they exhibit poor mechanical properties. Building on previous work in our lab that described composite CG biomaterials containing a porous scaffold core and nonporous CG membrane shell inspired by mechanically efficient core-shell composites in nature, this study explores an approach to improve cellular infiltration and metabolic health within these core-shell composites. We use indentation analyses to demonstrate that CG membranes, while less permeable than porous CG scaffolds, show similar permeability to dense materials such as small intestine submucosa (SIS). We also describe a simple method to fabricate CG membranes with organized arrays of microscale perforations. We demonstrate that perforated membranes support improved tenocyte migration into CG scaffolds, and that migration is enhanced by platelet-derived growth factor BB-mediated chemotaxis. CG core-shell composites fabricated with perforated membranes display scaffold-membrane integration with significantly improved tensile properties compared to scaffolds without membrane shells. Finally, we show that perforated membrane-scaffold composites support sustained tenocyte metabolic activity as well as improved cell infiltration and reduced expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 1α compared to composites with nonperforated membranes. These results will guide the design of improved biomaterials for tendon repair that are mechanically competent while also supporting infiltration of exogenous cells and other extrinsic mediators of wound healing.