A comparison of methods for assessing the lifetime reliability of a moored FPSO

Current design codes for floating offshore structures are based on measures of short-term reliability. That is, a design storm is selected via an extreme value analysis of the environmental conditions and the reliability of the vessel in that design storm is computed. Although this approach yields valuable information on the vessel motions, it does not produce a statistically rigorous assessment of the lifetime probability of failure. An alternative approach is to perform a long-term reliability analysis in which consideration is taken of all sea states potentially encountered by the vessel during the design life. Although permitted as a design approach in current design codes, the associated computational expense generally prevents its use in practice. A new efficient approach to long-term reliability analysis is presented here, the results of which are compared with a traditional short-term analysis for the surge motion of a representative moored FPSO in head seas. This serves to illustrate the failure probabilities actually embedded within current design code methods, and the way in which design methods might be adapted to achieve a specified target safety level.

Short- and long-term changes in joint co-contraction associated with motor learning as revealed from surface EMG.

In the field of motor control, two hypotheses have been controversial: whether the brain acquires internal models that generate accurate motor commands, or whether the brain avoids this by using the viscoelasticity of musculoskeletal system. Recent observations on relatively low stiffness during trained movements support the existence of internal models. However, no study has revealed the decrease in viscoelasticity associated with learning that would imply improvement of internal models as well as synergy between the two hypothetical mechanisms. Previously observed decreases in electromyogram (EMG) might have other explanations, such as trajectory modifications that reduce joint torques. To circumvent such complications, we required strict trajectory control and examined only successful trials having identical trajectory and torque profiles. Subjects were asked to perform a hand movement in unison with a target moving along a specified and unusual trajectory, with shoulder and elbow in the horizontal plane at the shoulder level. To evaluate joint viscoelasticity during the learning of this movement, we proposed an index of muscle co-contraction around the joint (IMCJ). The IMCJ was defined as the summation of the absolute values of antagonistic muscle torques around the joint and computed from the linear relation between surface EMG and joint torque. The IMCJ during isometric contraction, as well as during movements, was confirmed to correlate well with joint stiffness estimated using the conventional method, i.e., applying mechanical perturbations. Accordingly, the IMCJ during the learning of the movement was computed for each joint of each trial using estimated EMG-torque relationship. At the same time, the performance error for each trial was specified as the root mean square of the distance between the target and hand at each time step over the entire trajectory. The time-series data of IMCJ and performance error were decomposed into long-term components that showed decreases in IMCJ in accordance with learning with little change in the trajectory and short-term interactions between the IMCJ and performance error. A cross-correlation analysis and impulse responses both suggested that higher IMCJs follow poor performances, and lower IMCJs follow good performances within a few successive trials. Our results support the hypothesis that viscoelasticity contributes more when internal models are inaccurate, while internal models contribute more after the completion of learning. It is demonstrated that the CNS regulates viscoelasticity on a short- and long-term basis depending on performance error and finally acquires smooth and accurate movements while maintaining stability during the entire learning process.

Synapses with short-term plasticity are optimal estimators of presynaptic membrane potentials.

The trajectory of the somatic membrane potential of a cortical neuron exactly reflects the computations performed on its afferent inputs. However, the spikes of such a neuron are a very low-dimensional and discrete projection of this continually evolving signal. We explored the possibility that the neuron's efferent synapses perform the critical computational step of estimating the membrane potential trajectory from the spikes. We found that short-term changes in synaptic efficacy can be interpreted as implementing an optimal estimator of this trajectory. Short-term depression arose when presynaptic spiking was sufficiently intense as to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimate; short-term facilitation reflected structural features of the statistics of the presynaptic neuron such as up and down states. Our analysis provides a unifying account of a powerful, but puzzling, form of plasticity.

Do we know the strength of the chorioamnion? A critical review and analysis

The chorioamnion is the membrane that surrounds the fetus during gestation. Normally, it must remain intact for the duration of pregnancy, 37-42 weeks, and only rupture during or just before labour and delivery of the fetus. In a significant number (3%) of all births, this does not happen, and membranes rupture before term, resulting in preterm birth and significant perinatal morbidity. It is known that the material properties of chorioamnion may play a major role in mechanical rupture; a number of studies have been undertaken to characterise the physical nature of chorioamnion and examine factors that may predispose to rupture. However, the existing literature is inconsistent in its choice of both physical testing methods and data analysis techniques, motivating the current review. Experimental data from a large number of chorioamnion mechanical studies were collated, and data were converted to standard engineering quantities. The failure strength of the chorioamnion membrane was found consistently to value approximately 0.9 MPa. It is hoped that past and future studies of membrane mechanics can provide insight into the role of chorioamnion in labour and delivery. In addition, biomechanical approaches can help elucidate the potential causes of early rupture, and suggest future protocols or treatments that could both diagnose and prevent its occurrence. © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

SOI diode temperature sensor operated at ultra high temperatures-a critical analysis

This paper investigates the performance of diode temperature sensors when operated at ultra high temperatures (above 250°C). A low leakage Silicon On Insulator (SOI) diode was designed and fabricated in a 1 μm CMOS process and suspended within a dielectric membrane for efficient thermal insulation. The diode can be used for accurate temperature monitoring in a variety of sensors such as microcalorimeters, IR detectors, or thermal flow sensors. A CMOS compatible micro-heater was integrated with the diode for local heating. It was found that the diode forward voltage exhibited a linear dependence on temperature as long as the reverse saturation current remained below the forward driving current. We have proven experimentally that the maximum temperature can be as high as 550°C. Long term continuous operation at high temperatures (400°C) showed good stability of the voltage drop. Furthermore, we carried out a detailed theoretical analysis to determine the maximum operating temperature and exlain the presence of nonlinearity factors at ultra high temperatures. © 2008 IEEE.

Numerical back-analysis of energy pile test at Lambeth College, London

Energy Piles present an efficient solution for long-term carbon emission reduction and sustainable construction. However, they have received only partial acceptance by the industry, because of concerns regarding the impact of cyclic thermal changes on the serviceability of energy pile foundations. This paper investigates the applicability of the hybrid load transfer approach to load-settlement analysis of single piles behavior during thermal energy exchange processes. Back-analysis results in terms of the thermal and mechanical response of energy piles show good agreement with field test results from Lambeth College in London. © ASCE 2011.

Modelling of long-term ground response to tunnelling under St James's Park, London

Following a tunnel excavation in low-permeability soil, it is commonly observed that the ground surface continues to settle and ground loading on the tunnel lining changes, as the pore pressures in the ground approach a new equilibrium condition. The monitored ground response following the tunnelling under St James's Park, London, shows that the mechanism of subsurface deformation is composed of three different zones: swelling, consolidation and rigid body movement. The swelling took place in a confined zone above the tunnel crown, extending vertically to approximately 5 m above it. On the sides of the tunnel, the consolidation of the soil occurred in the zone primarily within the tunnel horizon, from the shoulder to just beneath the invert, and extending laterally to a large offset from the tunnel centreline. Above these swelling and consolidation zones the soil moved downward as a rigid body. In this study, soil-fluid coupled three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed to simulate the mechanism of long-term ground response monitored at St James's Park. An advanced critical state soil model, which can simulate the behaviour of London Clay in both drained and undrained conditions, was adopted for the analyses. The analysis results are discussed and compared with the field monitoring data. It is found that the observed mechanism of long-term subsurface ground and tunnel lining response at St James's Park can be simulated accurately only when stiffness anisotropy, the variation of permeability between different units within the London Clay and non-uniform drainage conditions for the tunnel lining are considered. This has important implications for future prediction of the long-term behaviour of tunnels in clays.

Global linear and nonlinear stability of viscous confined plane wakes with co-flow

The global stability of confined uniform density wakes is studied numerically, using two-dimensional linear global modes and nonlinear direct numerical simulations. The wake inflow velocity is varied between different amounts of co-flow (base bleed). In accordance with previous studies, we find that the frequencies of both the most unstable linear and the saturated nonlinear global mode increase with confinement. For wake Reynolds number Re = 100 we find the confinement to be stabilising, decreasing the growth rate of the linear and the saturation amplitude of the nonlinear modes. The dampening effect is connected to the streamwise development of the base flow, and decreases for more parallel flows at higher Re. The linear analysis reveals that the critical wake velocities are almost identical for unconfined and confined wakes at Re ≈ 400. Further, the results are compared with literature data for an inviscid parallel wake. The confined wake is found to be more stable than its inviscid counterpart, whereas the unconfined wake is more unstable than the inviscid wake. The main reason for both is the base flow development. A detailed comparison of the linear and nonlinear results reveals that the most unstable linear global mode gives in all cases an excellent prediction of the initial nonlinear behaviour and therefore the stability boundary. However, the nonlinear saturated state is different, mainly for higher Re. For Re = 100, the saturated frequency differs less than 5% from the linear frequency, and trends regarding confinement observed in the linear analysis are confirmed.

Measurement-Integrated simulations and Kalman filter applied to a co-flowing jet

This paper deals with the experimental evaluation of a flow analysis system based on the integration between an under-resolved Navier-Stokes simulation and experimental measurements with the mechanism of feedback (referred to as Measurement-Integrated simulation), applied to the case of a planar turbulent co-flowing jet. The experiments are performed with inner-to-outer-jet velocity ratio around 2 and the Reynolds number based on the inner-jet heights about 10000. The measurement system is a high-speed PIV, which provides time-resolved data of the flow-field, on a field of view which extends to 20 jet heights downstream the jet outlet. The experimental data can thus be used both for providing the feedback data for the simulations and for validation of the MI-simulations over a wide region. The effect of reduced data-rate and spatial extent of the feedback (i.e. measurements are not available at each simulation time-step or discretization point) was investigated. At first simulations were run with full information in order to obtain an upper limit of the MI-simulations performance. The results show the potential of this methodology of reproducing first and second order statistics of the turbulent flow with good accuracy. Then, to deal with the reduced data different feedback strategies were tested. It was found that for small data-rate reduction the results are basically equivalent to the case of full-information feedback but as the feedback data-rate is reduced further the error increases and tend to be localized in regions of high turbulent activity. Moreover, it is found that the spatial distribution of the error looks qualitatively different for different feedback strategies. Feedback gain distributions calculated by optimal control theory are presented and proposed as a mean to make it possible to perform MI-simulations based on localized measurements only. So far, we have not been able to low error between measurements and simulations by using these gain distributions.

Energy efficiency, resilience to future climates and long-term sustainability: the role of the built environment

Just under half of all energy consumption in the UK today takes place indoors, and over a quarter within our homes. The challenges associated with energy security, climate change and sustainable consumption will be overcome or lost in existing buildings. A background analysis, and the scale of the engineering challenge for the next three to four decades, is described in this paper.

Energy efficiency, resilience to future climates and long-term sustainability: the role of the built environment.

Just under half of all energy consumption in the UK today takes place indoors, and over a quarter within our homes. The challenges associated with energy security, climate change and sustainable consumption will be overcome or lost in our existing buildings. A background analysis, and the scale of the engineering challenge for the next three to four decades, is described in this paper.

An investigation of the kinetics of CO 2 uptake by a synthetic calcium based sorbent

This study examines the kinetics of carbonation by CO 2 at temperatures of ca. 750°C of a synthetic sorbent composed of 15wt% mayenite (Ca 12Al 14O 33) and CaO, designated HA-85-850, and draws comparisons with the carbonation of a calcined limestone. In-situ XRD has verified the inertness of mayenite, which neither interacts with the active CaO nor does it significantly alter the CaO carbonation-calcination equilibrium. An overlapping grain model was developed to predict the rate and extent of carbonation of HA-85-850 and limestone. In the model, the initial microstructure of the sorbent was defined by a discretised grain size distribution, assuming spherical grains. The initial input to the model - the size distribution of grains - was a fitted parameter, which was in good agreement with measurements made with mercury porosimetry and by the analysis of SEM images of sectioned particles. It was found that the randomly overlapping spherical grain assumption offered great simplicity to the model, despite its approximation to the actual porous structure within a particle. The model was able to predict the performance of the materials well and, particularly, was able to account for changes in rate and extent of reaction as the structure evolved after various numbers of cycles of calcination and carbonation. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.