Management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This article reports on the use of building performance simulation to quantify the risks that climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. Through a number of case studies the article demonstrates that any prediction of the probable thermal building performance on the long timeframes inherent in climate change comes with very large uncertainties. The same cases are used to illustrate that assessing the consequences of predicted change is problematic, since the functions that the building provides in themselves often are a moving target. The article concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictions. Further research that is needed to move to more effective discussion about risk acceptance and risk abatement for specific buildings is identified. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Building performance simulation for the management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change

This paper reports on research that uses building performance simulation and uncertainty analysis to assess the risks that projected climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. The work takes meteorological climate change predictions as a starting point, but also takes into account developments and uncertainties in technology, occupancy, intervention and renovation, and others. Four cases are studied in depth to explore the prospects of the quantification of said climate change risks. The research concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictive assumptions on the input side.