Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods

Background: There is an increasing recognition that modelling and simulation can assist in the process of designing health care policies, strategies and operations. However, the current use is limited and answers to questions such as what methods to use and when remain somewhat underdeveloped. Aim. The aim of this study is to provide a mechanism for decision makers in health services planning and management to compare a broad range of modelling and simulation methods so that they can better select and use them or better commission relevant modelling and simulation work. Methods. This paper proposes a modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool developed from a comprehensive literature review, the research team's extensive expertise and inputs from potential users. Twenty-eight different methods were identified, characterised by their relevance to different application areas, project life cycle stages, types of output and levels of insight, and four input resources required (time, money, knowledge and data). Results: The characterisation is presented in matrix forms to allow quick comparison and selection. This paper also highlights significant knowledge gaps in the existing literature when assessing the applicability of particular approaches to health services management, where modelling and simulation skills are scarce let alone money and time. Conclusions: A modelling and simulation method comparison and selection tool is developed to assist with the selection of methods appropriate to supporting specific decision making processes. In particular it addresses the issue of which method is most appropriate to which specific health services management problem, what the user might expect to be obtained from the method, and what is required to use the method. In summary, we believe the tool adds value to the scarce existing literature on methods comparison and selection. © 2011 Jun et al.

A detailed chemistry multi-cycle simulation of a gasoline fueled HCCI engine operated with NVO

A previously developed Stochastic Reactor Model (SRM) is used to simulate combustion in a four cylinder in-line four-stroke naturally aspirated direct injection Spark Ignition (SI) engine modified to run in Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) mode with a Negative Valve Overlap (NVO). A portion of the fuel is injected during NVO to increase the cylinder temperature and enable HCCI combustion at a compression ratio of 12:1. The model is coupled with GT-Power, a one-dimensional engine simulation tool used for the open valve portion of the engine cycle. The SRM is used to model in-cylinder mixing, heat transfer and chemistry during the NVO and main combustion. Direct injection is simulated during NVO in order to predict heat release and internal Exhaust Gas Recycle (EGR) composition and mass. The NOx emissions and simulated pressure profiles match experimental data well, including the cyclic fluctuations. The model predicts combustion characteristics at different fuel split ratios and injection timings. The effect of fuel reforming on ignition timing is investigated along with the causes of cycle to cycle variations and unstable operation. A detailed flux analysis during NVO unearths interesting results regarding the effect of NOx on ignition timing compared with its effect during the main combustion. © 2009 SAE International.

The production of separate streams of pure hydrogen and carbon dioxide from coal via an iron-oxide redox cycle

A chemical looping process using the redox reactions of iron oxide has been used to produce separate streams of pure H2 and CO2 from a solid fuel. An iron oxide carrier prepared using a mechanical mixing technique and comprised of 100wt.% Fe2O3 was used. It was demonstrated that hydrogen can be produced from three representative coals - a Russian bituminous, a German lignite and a UK sub-bituminous coal. Depending on the fuel, pure H2 with [CO] ≲50vol.ppm can be obtained from the proposed process. The cyclic stability of the iron oxide carrier was not adversely affected by contaminants found in syngas which are gaseous above 273K. Stable quantities of H2 were produced over five cycles for all three coals investigated. Independent of the fuel, SO2 was not formed during the oxidation with steam, i.e. the produced H2 was not contaminated with SO2. Since oxidation with air removes contaminants and generates useful heat and pure N2 for purging, it should be included in the operating cycle. Overall, it was demonstrated that the proposed process may be an attractive approach to upgrade crude syngas produced by the gasification of low-rank coals to pure H2, representing a substantial increase in calorific value, whilst simultaneous capturing CO2, a greenhouse gas. © 2010 Elsevier B.V.

A general design method for electric machines using magnetic circuit model considering the flux saturation problem

This paper proposes an analytical approach that is generalized for the design of various types of electric machines based on a physical magnetic circuit model. Conventional approaches have been used to predict the behavior of electric machines but have limitations in accurate flux saturation analysis and hence machine dimensioning at the initial design stage. In particular, magnetic saturation is generally ignored or compensated by correction factors in simplified models since it is difficult to determine the flux in each stator tooth for machines with any slot-pole combinations. In this paper, the flux produced by stator winding currents can be calculated accurately and rapidly for each stator tooth using the developed model, taking saturation into account. This aids machine dimensioning without the need for a computationally expensive finite element analysis (FEA). A 48-slot machine operated in induction and doubly-fed modes is used to demonstrate the proposed model. FEA is employed for verification.