Gaussian mixture modeling with Gaussian process latent variable models

Density modeling is notoriously difficult for high dimensional data. One approach to the problem is to search for a lower dimensional manifold which captures the main characteristics of the data. Recently, the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM) has successfully been used to find low dimensional manifolds in a variety of complex data. The GPLVM consists of a set of points in a low dimensional latent space, and a stochastic map to the observed space. We show how it can be interpreted as a density model in the observed space. However, the GPLVM is not trained as a density model and therefore yields bad density estimates. We propose a new training strategy and obtain improved generalisation performance and better density estimates in comparative evaluations on several benchmark data sets. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Applying quality control in building energy modelling: Comparative simulation of a high performance building

Quality control is considered from the simulator's perspective through comparative simulation of an ultra energy-efficient building with EE4-DOE2.1E and EnergyPlus. The University of Calgary's Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Platinum Child Development Centre, with a 66% certified energy cost reduction rating, was the case study building. A Natural Resources Canada incentive program required use of EE4 interface with DOE2.1E simulation engine for energy modelling. As DOE2.1E lacks specific features to simulate advanced systems such as radiant cooling in the CDC, an EnergyPlus model was developed to further evaluate these features. The EE4-DOE2.1E model was used for quality control during development of the base EnergyPlus model and simulation results were compared. Advanced energy systems then added to the EnergyPlus model generated small difference in estimated total annual energy use. The comparative simulation process helped identify the main input errors in the draft EnergyPlus model. The comparative use of less complex simulation programs is recommended for quality control when producing more complex models. © 2009 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Coupling model uncertainty for coupled rainfall/runoff and surface water quality models in river problems

Coupled hydrology and water quality models are an important tool today, used in the understanding and management of surface water and watershed areas. Such problems are generally subject to substantial uncertainty in parameters, process understanding, and data. Component models, drawing on different data, concepts, and structures, are affected differently by each of these uncertain elements. This paper proposes a framework wherein the response of component models to their respective uncertain elements can be quantified and assessed, using a hydrological model and water quality model as two exemplars. The resulting assessments can be used to identify model coupling strategies that permit more appropriate use and calibration of individual models, and a better overall coupled model response. One key finding was that an approximate balance of water quality and hydrological model responses can be obtained using both the QUAL2E and Mike11 water quality models. The balance point, however, does not support a particularly narrow surface response (or stringent calibration criteria) with respect to the water quality calibration data, at least in the case examined here. Additionally, it is clear from the results presented that the structural source of uncertainty is at least as significant as parameter-based uncertainties in areal models. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.