Value of information in product recovery decisions: A Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question 'what is its value?' is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Ultra-structural defects cause low bone matrix stiffness despite high mineralization in osteogenesis imperfecta mice.

Bone is a complex material with a hierarchical multi-scale organization from the molecule to the organ scale. The genetic bone disease, osteogenesis imperfecta, is primarily caused by mutations in the collagen type I genes, resulting in bone fragility. Because the basis of the disease is molecular with ramifications at the whole bone level, it provides a platform for investigating the relationship between structure, composition, and mechanics throughout the hierarchy. Prior studies have individually shown that OI leads to: 1. increased bone mineralization, 2. decreased elastic modulus, and 3. smaller apatite crystal size. However, these have not been studied together and the mechanism for how mineral structure influences tissue mechanics has not been identified. This lack of understanding inhibits the development of more accurate models and therapies. To address this research gap, we used a mouse model of the disease (oim) to measure these outcomes together in order to propose an underlying mechanism for the changes in properties. Our main finding was that despite increased mineralization, oim bones have lower stiffness that may result from the poorly organized mineral matrix with significantly smaller, highly packed and disoriented apatite crystals. Using a composite framework, we interpret the lower oim bone matrix elasticity observed as the result of a change in the aspect ratio of apatite crystals and a disruption of the crystal connectivity.

Branching toughens fibrous networks.

Fibrous collagenous networks are not only stiff but also tough, due to their complex microstructures. This stiff yet tough behavior is desirable for both medical and military applications but it is difficult to reproduce in engineering materials. While the nonlinear hyperelastic behavior of fibrous networks has been extensively studied, the understanding of toughness is still incomplete. Here, we identify a microstructure mimicking the branched bundles of a natural type I collagen network, in which partially cross-linked long fibers give rise to novel combinations of stiffness and toughness. Finite element analysis shows that the stiffness of fully cross-linked fibrous networks is amplified by increasing the fibril length and cross-link density. However, a trade-off of such stiff networks is reduced toughness. By having partially cross-linked networks with long fibrils, the networks have comparable stiffness and improved toughness as compared to the fully cross-linked networks. Further, the partially cross-linked networks avoid the formation of kinks, which cause fibril rupture during deformation. As a result, the branching allows the networks to have stiff yet tough behavior.

Stiffness of sands through a laboratory test database

Deformations of sandy soils around geotechnical structures generally involve strains in the range small (0·01%) to medium (0·5%). In this strain range the soil exhibits non-linear stress-strain behaviour, which should be incorporated in any deformation analysis. In order to capture the possible variability in the non-linear behaviour of various sands, a database was constructed including the secant shear modulus degradation curves of 454 tests from the literature. By obtaining a unique S-shaped curve of shear modulus degradation, a modified hyperbolic relationship was fitted. The three curve-fitting parameters are: an elastic threshold strain γe, up to which the elastic shear modulus is effectively constant at G0; a reference strain γr, defined as the shear strain at which the secant modulus has reduced to 0·5G0; and a curvature parameter a, which controls the rate of modulus reduction. The two characteristic strains γe and γr were found to vary with sand type (i.e. uniformity coefficient), soil state (i.e. void ratio, relative density) and mean effective stress. The new empirical expression for shear modulus reduction G/G0 is shown to make predictions that are accurate within a factor of 1·13 for one standard deviation of random error, as determined from 3860 data points. The initial elastic shear modulus, G0, should always be measured if possible, but a new empirical relation is shown to provide estimates within a factor of 1·6 for one standard deviation of random error, as determined from 379 tests. The new expressions for non-linear deformation are easy to apply in practice, and should be useful in the analysis of geotechnical structures under static loading.